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Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

EUR/USD

The Euro was subjected to some selling pressure during the European session on Tuesday and retreated to test support near 1.4150, but the dollar was unable to gain significant traction and the Euro advanced again during the US session with a fresh challenge on resistance above 1.4250 in Asia on Wednesday.

The Euro was unsettled temporarily by another downgrade of Portugal's sovereign rating and by a further increase in Chinese interest rates, but the currency remained resilient in the face of persistent fears surrounding the peripheral outlook.

There were strong expectations of an ECB interest rate increase on Thursday and renewed speculation that the central bank would either decide on a 0.50% increase this month or would look to signal a series of increases over the next few months. The ECB will want to sound tough on inflation, but there is also likely to be a degree of caution given the global growth outlook.

The latest ISM non-manufacturing index was slightly weaker than expected at 57.3 for March from 59.7 the previous month and suggested that the sector might be slowing.

The FOMC minutes were broadly in line with expectations as a majority were content to maintain the highly-expansionary policy. There were greater reservations from several regional Fed Presidents and these divisions are liable to increase over the next few weeks. Without any clear comments from Chairman Bernanke, markets will assume that the Fed will be very reluctant to tighten policy.

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Yen

The dollar found support close to 84.20 against the yen during Tuesday and made some advance following the FOMC minutes as US Treasury yields increased.

Dollar gains accelerated early in Asian trading on Wednesday as it pushed to a high near 85.50 which was the highest level for 2011. The yen was subjected to heavy selling pressure on the crosses as the Australian dollar and Sterling both made strong progress.

Overall risk appetite remains firmer which will maintain selling pressure on the currency in the short term. There will also be expectations that the Bank of Japan will look to maintain a highly-expansionary monetary policy at Thursday's council meeting which will also tend to sap yen support. There will be fears that markets are becoming complacent over global risk trends which could trigger a sharp correction.

Sterling

Sterling found support close to 1.6120 against the dollar on Tuesday and advanced strongly following the latest economic data. The PMI services index rose to 57.1 for March from 52.6 the previous month. This was a 13-month high for the index and much stronger than expected, although business optimism did actually decline slightly.

The stronger than expected data will increase pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates, especially as inflationary pressures were also reported as intensifying in the survey. The central bank will still be very uneasy over the economic outlook as consumer spending remains under pressure. There was also a slight moderation in the latest BRC shop-price inflation index which may ease retail inflation fears slightly.

The key factor is that Thursday's decision is likely to be very close, especially as there will certainly be a core of members who will vote for a rate increase.

The UK currency pushed to a high near 1.6350 against the dollar as it also gained support from a general improvement in risk appetite.

Swiss franc

The dollar found support on dips to below 0.9220 against the franc during Tuesday and spiked higher to a peak around 0.9290 before consolidating near the 0.9260 area later in Asian trading on Wednesday. The dollar gained from wider franc losses rather than independent strength as the Swiss currency retreated to lows beyond 1.32 against the Euro.

The improvement in risk appetite and a surge in carry-trade activity will continue to lessen potential defensive franc demand in the short term. Although there has been further evidence of capital flows from weaker European economies, there has been an increased flow into emerging markets rather than the franc. There will be no scope for complacency given the Euro-zone structural vulnerabilities.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Australian dollar

The Australian dollar dipped to lows just below 1.03 against the US currency on Wednesday, undermined by some degree of disappointment over the Reserve Bank's policy statement, while the announcement of another Chinese interest rate increase also damaged sentiment.

There was still strong buying support on dips and wider US vulnerability, together with renewed interest in commodity prices, helped push the local currency back to highs in the 0.9370 area. The domestic data was disappointing again with a second successive sharp decline in home loans for February which is liable to trigger fresh reservations over the currency.�

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Softs Market Commentary

2011-04-06T08:01:00.003-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

May sugar closed down 49 points at 27.51 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday. Trading has been choppy recently. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. However, prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above technical resistance at 28.20 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 26.28 cents. First resistance is seen at 28.00 cents and then at 28.20 cents. First support is seen a yesterday's low of 27.43 cents and then at 27.00 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

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May coffee closed up 1,165 points at 267.70 cents. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart, after hitting a fresh seven-week low early on. Coffee bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained some upside momentum yesterday. A four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated yesterday. Bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 281.15 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at yesterday's low of 254.05 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 270.00 and then at 272.50 cents. First support is seen at 265.00 cents and then at 262.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May cocoa closed down $52 at $2,968 a ton. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3,200. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $2,842. First resistance is seen at $3,000 and then at $3,050. First support is seen at $2,950 and then at last week's low of $2,925.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May cotton closed up 551 points at 201.06 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and scored a big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart.The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Look for continued high volatility in the cotton market. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at yesterday's low of 188.85 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 211.16 cents. First support is seen at 200.00 cents and then at 197.50 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 202.55 cents and then at 205.00 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May orange juice closed up 55 points at $1.6575 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range. A five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at $1.7000. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at last week's low of $1.5915. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $1.6650 and then at $1.6750. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $1.6480 and $1.6265.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed down $3.20 at $292.10 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh 3.5-month low yesterday. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $285.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $305.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $295.20 and then at this week's high of $297.80. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $290.10 and then at $287.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Wednesday

2011-04-06T08:01:00.001-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Gold futures hit a fresh all-time record high overnight, while silver hit a new 31-year high. The precious metals are rallying in part due to oncerns regarding heightened inflation. The fact the precious metals are rallying strongly bodes well for other commodity market bulls. However, inflation is the enemy of stock and bond market bulls.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh six-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at February high of 1,342.80 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,326.20 and then at 1,314.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,346.75 and then at last week's high of 2,358.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,330.00 and then at this week's low of 2,318.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh nearly three-year high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,330 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,295. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,400 and then at 12,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 1/32 and then at 120 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 119 21/32 and then at last week's low of 119 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

132 14/32--lifetime high
123 22/32--Previous Month's high
121 12/32--second pivot point resistance
120 28/32--previous day's high
120 27/32--18-day moving average
120 20/32--first pivot point resistance
120 8/32--9-day moving average
120 7/32--4-day moving average
120 5/32--100-day moving average
120 5/32--pivot point
119 29/32--previous day's close
119 21/32--previous day's low
119 13/32--first pivot point support
118 30/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday's high of 119.00.0 and then at this week's high of 119.14.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.21.0 and then at last week's low of 118.09.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

126 10/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--previous month's high
119 23/32--18-day moving average
119 22/32--second pivot point resistance
119 18/32--100-day moving average
119 13/32--previous day's high
119 7/32--first pivot point resistance
119 2/32--9-day moving average
119 --4-day moving average
118 30/32--pivot point
118 24/32--previous day's close
118 21/32--previous day's low
118 15/32--first pivot point support
118 6/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is lower higher in early trading, with prices hovering near the recent contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.12 and then at Tuesday's high of 76.40. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.77 and then at the contract low of 75.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady in early trading today. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week's two-year high of $108.78 and then at $109.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.72 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was weaker while wheat was near steady and soybeans were firmer. Corn is now technically overbought and due for a downside correction. Weather in the U.S. Midwest is a major factor in the grain markets. At present, wet weather forecasts for the Corn Belt are bullish for corn and dry weather in the Plains is bullish for wheat. Traders are awaiting USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Friday morning. That report is again expected to be bullish for the grains.

Daily Market Commentary: Waiting For The Break

2011-04-06T03:01:00.007-07:00

By Declan Fallon
Markets experienced a third day of indecision, leaving things much as they were yesterday.

The S&P has an inside day doji with modestly higher volume (although volume well below that of late March and early April). Natural play is to trade break of 3-day high/low with a stop on the flip side of the break.

($SPX)

via StockCharts.com

The Nasdaq attempted a move into the breakdown gap, but it was quickly repelled, leaving the index back at gap resistance. Higher volume counts as an accumulation day, but point gains are what's really needed.

($COMPQ)

via StockCharts.com

The expectation was for the semiconductor index to drive higher on the back of the NSM takeover. Instead, the gains failed to break declining resistance, or get close to its 50-da MA.

($SOX)

via StockCharts.com

The failure of the semiconductor to break was enough to keep the lid on the reconstituted Nasdaq 100

via StockCharts.com

The Russell 2000 added another half a percentage point. The continuous sequence of up days offers some leeway on any subsequent weakness and retest of former resistance-turned-support. The gain in price is supported by the now decisive break of the MACD bearish divergence. Collectively, these are bullish developments in the face of general market indecision.

($RUT)

via StockCharts.com

So with Small Caps doing the legwork it looks like this rally still has plenty of fight. Should semiconductors clear declining resistance it will offer an opportunity for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to push into, and close their respective breakdown gaps. Eventually, Large Caps will be able to look beyond the currently threatened double tops and join Small Caps higher. Bulls still hold the dominant hand.

Natural gas moving forward

2011-04-06T03:01:00.005-07:00

By James Hamilton

The Denver Post reported the opening on Saturday of stations offering compressed natural gas to drivers in Grand Junction and Rifle, towns along Interstate 70 in western Colorado, making it possible to drive a vehicle fueled by compressed natural gas from Denver to Los Angeles.

The Glenwood Springs Post Independent offered this account:

The use of CNG fuel on the Western Slope has long been stymied as a "chicken-and-egg" scenario. No one wanted to invest in CNG cars or trucks because there were no filling stations, but there were no filling stations because no one was driving CNG vehicles.

Kirk Swallow, owner of Swallow Oil and an investor in Rocky Mountain Alternative Fueling, has now changed that. Last year, Swallow won a $675,000 grant from the Governor's Energy Office to develop the Rifle station. He and his partners in Rocky Mountain Alternative Fueling covered the difference for the Rifle station, which cost about $900,000....

As part of the grant application, Swallow obtained commitments from local fleet operators to begin making vehicle conversions to CNG.

EnCana Oil & Gas (USA), Williams Production RMT and Bill Barrett Corp. all pledged to convert five to 10 vehicles a year to natural gas. Garfield County committed to converting a dozen vehicles. The city of Rifle and Colorado Mountain College are also running bi-fuel vehicles, which can run on CNG until that tank is empty, and the switch on the fly to burn gasoline.

Technological breakthroughs in drilling methods have turned natural gas into a resource that the United States has in abundance. But what is the appropriate role of government in promoting the transition to more use of this resource for transportation? The "chicken and egg" problem referred to in the Post Independent article is an example of what economists call a "network externality", for which it makes a lot of sense for the government to be a first mover in helping encourage the infrastructure necessary to enable market forces to take over.

The days when significant numbers of people drive from Denver to Los Angeles in a CNG-powered vehicle may still be a distant vision.

But I am glad that some people have that vision and are doing what they can to make it a reality.

Map of some CNG fueling stations and prices currently charged in the southwest United States. Source: CNG Prices.com

NY Fed Model: 1-in-232 Chance of 2012 Double-Dip

2011-04-06T03:01:00.003-07:00

The New York Federal Reserve updated its "Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread" yesterday with treasury yield data through March 2011, and the Fed's recession probability forecast through March 2012. The NY Fed's Treasury model uses the spread between the yields on 10-year Treasury notes (3.41% in March) and 3-month Treasury bills (0.10%) to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession up to twelve months ahead (see details here).

The Fed's model (data here) shows that the recession probability peaked during the October 2007 to April 2008 period at around 37-42% (see chart above), and has been declining since then in almost every month. For March 2011, the recession probability is only 0.26% and for March of next year the recession probability is slightly higher at 0.43%. According to the NY Fed Treasury Spread model, the chances of a double-dip recession through March of next year is less than one-in-200.

Paul Ryan's Plan for a Debt-Free Nation

2011-04-06T03:01:00.001-07:00

Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) presented his "Path to Prosperity" budget plan today at AEI, here's the full text of his talk, here's his WSJ editorial today, here's the link to the video, and here's the full 73-page plan.

American for Tax Reform prepared the chart above to compare Ryan's budget to the Simpson-Bowles (Obama) commission (and the Coburn-Chambliss Gang of Six which is introducing legislation modeled after Simpson-Bowles).

In his talk today, Paul Ryan quoted a famous American president:

"The lessons of history, confirmed by the evidence immediately before me, show conclusively that continued dependence upon relief induces a spiritual and moral disintegration fundamentally destructive to the national fiber. To dole out relief in this way is to administer a narcotic, a subtle destroyer of the human spirit. It is inimical to the dictates of sound policy. It is in violation of the traditions of America."

And Rep. Ryan concluded his talk by saying:

"This budget offers America a model of government that is guided by the timeless principles of the American Idea. This budget provides policymakers with a blueprint to put our budget on the path to balance and our economy on the path to prosperity. This budget assures America's seniors-those who are currently retired and future retirees-that their health and retirement security will be preserved and strengthened.

This budget provides parents with hope that their children can inherit a strong, free and prosperous America. It is a plan to give our children a debt-free nation so they too can realize the American Dream."

Market Commentary - April 5

2011-04-06T00:01:00.001-07:00

By Larry Swing

DJIA Industrial Average

April 5

Open: 12402.08

High: 12438.14

Low: 12353.34

Close: 12393.90

Change: -6.13 (-0.05%)

RSI: 81

MACD: 87

Strategy: Stocks in US remained quiet to move in a narrow range on Tuesday in absence of any major cues as investors were busy trying to interpret the minutes of Fed meet. DJIA is trying to regain feet above 12300 points.

Commentary:

U.S. stocks closed on a nearly flat note Tuesday, after trading in a narrow band for a major part of the day, even though some of the stocks failed to support the fresh rally in materials and closed lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped just 6.13 points, or 0.05%, to close at 12,393.90. The S&P 500 slipped less than 1 point to 1,332 and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 2 points to 2,791, with materials leading the modest rally.

The Dow constituents which advanced in the session included Alcoa 2.79%, Intel 1.12%, Chevron 1.02% and Cisco 0.95%

However, the index laggards in the day included stocks like General Electric -0.97%, Boeing -0.97%, Proctor & gamble -0.95% and Caterpillar -0.95%.

An aggregate of 13 Dow constituents advanced in the day and another 13 stocks closed lower.

Amongst the major sectors, Industrials 1.05%, Tech 0.17% and Healthcare 0.14% closed higher in the day.

However, consumables, capital goods and financials remained as the laggards amongst the various sectors.

The market came under pressure after meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve raised speculation that the U.S. central bank could raise rates later this year.

However, the bright spot of the day came in shape of gains logged by semiconductor companies after Texas Instruments announced a $6.5 billion bid on Monday evening for rival National Semiconductor. Shares of National Semiconductor surged 72%.

Meanwhile, Nasdaq OMX Group announced Tuesday it will rebalance its tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index, and slash Apple's weight by almost 40%. Apple shares slipped about 0.7%.

However, the readjustment also means a subsequent rise in weight of Google, Microsoft and Intel Corp. from May this year.

Shares of Expedia advanced 1.3%, after American Airlines announced the two companies will resume doing business together after reaching an agreement on airfare sales.

The market remained cautious following a surprise interest rate hike by The People's Bank of China and another downgrade of Portugal's sovereign debt.

Investors are now expecting the European Central Bank to announce plans to increase interest rates on Thursday.

The dollar advanced against the euro and the Japanese yen, but fell against the British pound.

Crude oil for May delivery slipped marginally to $108.34 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery surged $21.60 to another record high of $1,450.01 an ounce in non-inflation adjusted terms. Silver also gained to a new fresh high of $38.11 per ounce for June futures.

The Day Ahead

Wednesday

EIA Petroleum Status

Low SPY Volume A Concern

2011-04-05T13:01:00.007-07:00

By Rob Hanna
SPY volume came in at the lowest level in a long while on Monday. I've shown numerous volume studies in the past suggesting price highs and volume lows are typically followed by a pullback. Below is a study from last night's letter that examines the current setup.

The numbers here are fairly compelling, especially considering the studies used a long-term trend filter. Bulls may not want to get overly aggressive in the next few days. Risk appears elevated.

Fears That Rising Energy Prices Will Intensify Inflation Pressures

2011-04-05T13:01:00.005-07:00

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

EUR/USD

The Euro hit resistance close to 1.4250 against the dollar during Monday and edged weaker during the session, but trading ranges were narrow as markets took stock following recent events and continued to focus on prospective monetary policies. Existing yield spreads remained unhelpful for the dollar which certainly stifled buying support and limited recoveries.

In comments on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that inflation would be pushed higher by rises in commodity and energy prices. The comments were relatively brief, but Bernanke did say that the inflation rise should be transitory. These remarks will dampen market expectations that the Fed will push towards a more aggressive policy in the near term. The latest FOMC minutes will be watched closely on Tuesday for evidence of splits within the Fed committee.

The latest European data recorded a decline in the Sentix investor confidence index to 14.2 for March from 17.1 the previous month and there will be further fears that rising energy prices will undermine business confidence and dampen growth.

For now, there is no sign that the ECB is pulling away from its planned increase in interest rates at this week's meeting. There will still be fears that rising energy prices will intensify inflation pressures and this poses a very important dilemma for the ECB given that growth doubts will also increase.� Overall, the bank is likely to be cautious and it should refrain from making definitive comments over future policy.

The Euro drifted lower in Asian trading with a move to just below 1.42, but ranges remained narrow.

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Yen

The dollar found support on dips to below 83.90 against the yen during Monday and maintained a generally robust tone with a move back above 84 during the Asian session on Tuesday.

There was no further increase in US Treasury yields as Bernanke maintained a generally dovish tone, but the US currency still gained important support. There was further increase in using the yen as a funding currency as carry-trade activity remained high.

Underlying confidence in the Japanese fundamentals remains weak with further expectations that the bank will be forced to monetize government debt issues which could lead to substantial medium-term yen depreciation. The Japanese currency will gain some defensive support if fears that high energy prices will derail the economy increase. The dollar pushed to a high above 84.50 in Asian trading on Tuesday.

Sterling

Sterling hit resistance close to 1.6170 against the US dollar during Monday and weakened to test support near 1.61 in generally cautious trading. The Euro tested support below 0.88 against the UK currency before finding support.

As far as economic data is concerned, the PMI construction index edged slightly lower to 56.4 from 56.5 the previous month, but this was better than expected. The latest data showed that home owners continued to repay debt during the fourth quarter while the Chambers of Commerce survey showed that confidence remained fragile.

The PMI services data will be watched very closely on Tuesday and a combination of subdued activity, together with rising inflation would increase policy difficulties for the Bank of England while a strong outcome would make it difficult for the bank to resist higher rates. Trading activity is likely to be subdued ahead of Thursday's central bank interest rate decision, especially as there will be some speculation over an increase in rates.

Swiss franc

The dollar dipped to test support near 0.92 against the franc during US trading on Monday before finding support and rallying back to the 0.9240 area as the dollar secured some wider respite. The Euro was unable to break above 1.32 against the Swiss currency and dipped back towards the 1.31 area.

Global risk conditions will remain extremely important in the near term and the franc will tend to lose ground when confidence in the global economy increases. The position is finely balanced as defensive demand is liable to increase again if markets fear that high energy costs will trigger a renewed downturn.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Australian dollar

The Australian dollar was unable to make a fresh attack on 1.04 against the US dollar during Monday and there was a generally softer tone, but it did find support above the 1.03 level.

The latest trade data was much weaker than expected with a monthly deficit of AUD0.21bn for February compared with expectations of a substantial surplus and this was the first deficit for 10 months. The PMI services index remained below the pivotal 50 level which will maintain doubts over growth trends.

In contrast, there were no surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia as it left interest rates on hold at 4.75%. The statement was broadly similar to the previous meeting with the central bank comfortable with the current stance.�

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Livestock Futures Commentary

2011-04-05T13:01:00.003-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

June live cattle closed down $0.32 at $120.92 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range and saw mild profit-taking pressure after prices Friday hit a contract and all-time high, which was matched early on yesterday. Bulls still have strong upside near-term technical momentum. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. Cattle market bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push prices above solid technical resistance at $122.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $118.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's contract high of $121.50 and then at $122.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $120.47 and then at $120.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

�

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May feeder cattle closed down $1.02 at $138.37 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low on profit taking pressure after prices Friday hit a contract and all-time high. The bulls still have solid upside near-term technical momentum. There are still no early clues of a market top being close at hand. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $140.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push prices below solid technical support at $136.60. First resistance is seen at $139.00 and then at the contract high of $139.65. First support is seen at $138.00 and then at $137.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

�

June lean hogs closed up $0.27 at $103.85 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. Lean hog futures bulls have the strong near-term technical advantage. However, there is strong overhead technical resistance just above the market, at the contract high of $104.15. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $104.15. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $102.00. First resistance is seen at $104.15 and then at $104.50. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $102.90 and then at $102.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

�

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday

2011-04-05T13:01:00.001-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, April 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Commodity markets are starting out Tuesday under some selling pressure as the U.S. dollar index is seeing a tepid short-covering bounce. My bias is that there is not strong downside price pressure left in the dollar index and that there is not much more upside left in the crude oil market, barring a fresh geopolitical shock to the market place.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 1,336.20 and then at the February high of 1,342.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,320.00 and then at 1,314.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,343.00 and then at 2,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,318.25 and then at 2,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,300 and then more stops just below support at 12,280. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday's high of 12,345 and then at the February high of 12,380. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 121 even and then at 121 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120 5/32 and then at 120 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
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JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

132 14/32--lifetime high
123 22/32--Previous Month's high
121 8/32--second pivot point resistance
120 27/32--18-day moving average
120 27/32--previous day's high
120 27/32--first pivot point resistance
120 13/32--pivot point
120 13/32--9-day moving average
120 13/32--previous day's close
120 9/32--4-day moving average
120 6/32--100-day moving average
120 --previous day's low
120 --first pivot point support
119 18/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday's high of 119.14.5 and then at 119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.00.0 and then at Monday's low of 118.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

126 10/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--previous month's high
119 25/32--18-day moving average
119 24/32--second pivot point resistance
119 20/32--100-day moving average
119 15/32--first pivot point resistance
119 14/32--previous day's high
119 7/32--9-day moving average
119 7/32--previous day's close
119 6/32--pivot point
119 3/32--4-day moving average
118 29/32--first pivot point support
118 28/32--previous day's low
118 20/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.50 and then at 76.70. Shorter-term support is seen at 76.00 and then at last week's low of 75.88. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Monday's two-year high of $108.78 and then at $109.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.50 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to lower in overnight trading. Some profit taking is seen in corn, while soybean bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Weather in the U.S. Midwest is a major factor in the grain markets. At present, wet weather in the Corn Belt is bullish for corn and dry weather in the Plains is bullish for wheat. Traders are awaiting USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Friday morning. That report is again expected to be bullish for the grains.

4th day of QQQ short term up-trend; AAPL lags

2011-04-05T05:01:00.001-07:00

By Dr. Wish

The QQQ short term up-trend completed its 4th day on Monday. I am concerned about AAPL’s lagging the market. It is not a good sign when a market leader lags. The last time AAPL reached a new high was on February 16. Click on daily chart to enlarge.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 5
t2108: 73

Market Commentary - April 4

2011-04-05T04:01:00.001-07:00

By Larry Swing

DJIA Industrial Average

April 4

Open: 12374.60

High: 12407.41

Low: 12369.15

Close: 12400.03

Change: +23.31 (+0.19%)

RSI: 74

MACD: 80

Strategy: Stocks in US remained quiet to move in a narrow range on Monday as investors looked satisfied with 6% gains that indices have already made since the start of the year. DJIA is trying to regain feet above 12300 points.

Commentary:

U.S. stocks closed with modest gains Monday, after trading in a narrow band for a major part of the day, even though the tech stocks failed to support the fresh rally and closed lower at the start of the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 23.31 points, or 0.19%, to close at 12,400.03. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index also advanced 0.46 points to close at 1,332.85, with materials leading sector. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.41 points, or 0.01%, to 2,789.19, after a four-session advance following selling pressure on tech stocks.

While the stocks moved in a narrow range, 20 out of 30 Dow constituents gained moderately in the session and the other stocks closed partly lower.

The major Dow Constituents to advance in the session included Johnson & Johnson 1.11%, Wal-Mart 1%, General Electric 0.93% and Pfizer 0.79%.

The laggards amongst the Dow Constituents included stocks like Hewlett Packard -1.56%, Intel Corp -1.17%, Walt Disney -0.51% and kraft Foods -0.32%.

Materials (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.6%) and Consumer Staples (+0.2%) made some gains amongst the sectors in the day.

However, Tech (-0.5%), Financials (-0.1%) and Utilities (-0.1%) sectors lagged behind in the session.

Amongst the M&A news, shares of the world’s biggest drug maker Pfizer rose 0.8% after the company said it would sell its Capsugel manufacturing unit to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. for $2.38 billion. Pfizer stock gained 0.79% in the session.

In another M&A deal announced in the after hours, Texas Instruments offered to acquire National Semiconductor for $6.5 billion.

Shares of defense contractor General Dynamics Corp. shed 5.2% after one of the company’s Gulfstream Aerospace jets crashed during a test flight on the last weekend.

Southwest Airlines Co.’s shares declined 1.7% with more than 60 flights canceled for safety inspections after one of its carrier jets made an emergency landing.

The materials sector scored a 0.7% gain for the session.

However, despite a sell off across semi conductor stocks, the tech sector settled with a 0.5% gain due to support from large cap stocks.

Meanwhile, the crude oil futures for June delivery settled at two year high at $108.58 per barrel.

With crude oil continuing to show strength, even the precious metals continued to advance moderately as market investors chlose to look for alternate investments.

The Day Ahead

Tuesday

ICSC-Goldman store sales

ISM Non Mfg Index for March

FOMC Minutes

US Employment Data Was Slightly Stronger Than Expected

2011-04-05T00:01:00.007-07:00

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

EUR/USD

Markets were inevitably frozen within relatively narrow ranges ahead of the US payroll data on Friday with the Euro holding close to 1.4150 against the dollar.

The headline US employment data was slightly stronger than expected with a payroll increase of 216,000 in the latest month from a revised 194,000 previously while the unemployment rate dipped again to 8.8% from 8.9%. The report, overall, suggested solid growth for the economy, especially as private-sector growth had to compensate for a further decline in government jobs.

The ISM manufacturing index also maintained a strong reading at 61.2 from 61.4 the previous month.

The dollar advanced following the data, but reversed course later in the US session as monetary policy expectations also remained extremely important. Federal Reserve Governor Dudley was significantly more dovish than other recent Fed members as he stated that the time was not yet right for a tightening of policy. Debate within the Fed will be extremely important for the dollar running into the FOMC meeting later this month as there are growing divisions within the committee. Markets will be on high alert for further comments from key Fed officials with a particular focus on Chairman Bernanke.

The Euro continued to gain support on expectations that the ECB would increase interest rates this week. There was still some speculation over a 0.50% increase and also further talk that the central bank would indicate a series of increases. The Euro pushed to a high near 1.4250 against the dollar and briefly pushed above this level in Asia on Monday before edging lower. Markets will still watch Euro structural developments and sovereign default risk closely with volatility liable to remain at elevated levels.

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Yen

The dollar jumped higher following the US payroll data on Friday with a high just above 84.50 against the Japanese currency, but the US currency did run into profit taking, especially after a strong advance during the week, especially as it lost ground heavily against the Euro and Sterling.

Risk appetite remained generally strong following the data which increased market interest in carry trades and also boosted retail demand for overseas currencies. These factors tended to weaken the yen and there was initial dollar support from higher Treasury yields.

The latest data recorded a sharp increase in Japan's monetary base and there will be further expectations that the Bank of Japan will effectively finance additional government spending by monetising the debt. In the medium term, this could be the source of major downward pressure on the Japanese currency.

Sterling

Sterling remained generally fragile in European trading on Friday and was subjected to further selling pressure following a weaker than expected PMI report for the manufacturing sector. The index declined to 57.1 from a revised 60.9 previously and, although still robust in historic terms there were increased fears that the economy is losing momentum.

The construction and services-sector PMIs will be watched very closely this week and monthly declines would raise further questions over the economy's health.

The Bank of England will remain an important near-term focus with the latest MPC decision due on Thursday. The shadow MPC, which is made up of academic economists voted 5-4 to hold interest rates steady and there is also likely to be a close vote at the real MPC meeting. Markets will be expecting rates to be left on hold, but there will certainly be caution given the possibility of an increase.

Sterling retreated to below the 1.60 level against the dollar after the US payroll data before reversing course and pushing back above 1.61 as the US currency came under fresh selling pressure.

Swiss franc

The dollar consolidated above 0.9220 against the US currency on Friday before the US data helped spark a further spike in volatility as the US currency advancing to highs around 0.9325 before reversing course and retreating back to the 0.9240 area.

The Swiss currency was significantly weaker on the crosses as the Euro pushed to a high above 1.3150. There was greater confidence in the global economy as risk appetite also improved and this was important in lessening demand for the Swiss currency as carry-trade activity increased even though there were further stresses surrounding the Euro-zone sovereign-debt risks.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Australian dollar

The Australian dollar retreated in an immediate response to the US employment report, but it regained ground quickly and challenged fresh 29-year highs above the 1.04 against as the US currency reversed course later in the US session.

The Australian currency continued to gain support from the general improvement in risk appetite as markets looked to take an optimistic tone towards the global economy with carry trades seen as increasingly attractive given the yield advantage. The domestic data recorded a further increase in job advertisements and the inflation gauge, but the market impact was limited.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Grain Market Analysis

2011-04-05T00:01:00.005-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

May soybeans on Friday closed lower and nearer the session low. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing May prices above solid chart resistance at last week's high of $14.32 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $13.50. First resistance is seen at $14.00 and then at Friday's high of $14.16 1/2. First support is seen at Friday's low of $13.86 1/2 and then at $13.75.

$14.67 1/2 --- the contract high
$13.67 3/4 --- 10-day moving average
$13.54 1/2 --- 20-day moving average
$13.75 3/4 --- 40-day moving average
$8.52 -------- the contract low

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May soybean meal on Friday closed lower and near the session low. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $377.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $352.20. First resistance comes in at $362.50 and then at $365.00. First support is seen at $360.00 and then at $357.50.

$395.00 --- contract high
$361.40 --- 10-day moving average
$358.10 --- 20-day moving average
$365.00 --- 40-day moving average
$243.00 --- the contract low

May bean oil on Friday closed weaker and nearer the session high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 59.57 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 57.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Friday's high of 58.89 cents and then at 59.00 cents. First support is seen at 58.50 cents and then at 58.00 cents.

60.50 --- the contract high
56.85 --- 10-day moving average
56.38 --- 20-day moving average
57.20 --- 40-day moving average
33.96 --- the contract low

May corn futures on Friday gapped sharply higher on the daily bar char, hit a fresh four-week high and closed sharply higher and near the session high. Corn bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early technical clues to suggest prices are near a top. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $7.44 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $6.93 1/4, which is the bottom of Friday's big upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance for May corn is seen at Friday's high of $7.38 1/4 and then at $7.44 1/4. First support is seen at $7.30 and then at Friday's low of $7.25.

$7.44 1/4 ---- the contract high
$6.88 1/4 ---- 10-day moving average
$6.80 -------- 20-day moving average
$6.95 1/4 ---- 40-day moving average
$3.66 1/2 ---- the contract low

May Chicago SRW wheat on Friday closed weaker and near mid-range. Wheat bulls still have some upside technical momentum. Look for the wheat market to be a follower of corn and soybeans for the next several weeks. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above psychological resistance at $8.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at last week's low of $7.21. First resistance is seen at $7.60 and then at Friday's high of $7.74. First support lies at $7.50 and then at Friday's low of $7.44 3/4.

$9.25 1/2 --- the contract high
$7.34 1/4 --- 10-day moving average
$7.31 1/4 --- 20-day moving average1
$7.92 1/4 --- 40-day moving average
$5.23 ------- the contract low

May K.C. HRW wheat on Friday closed slightly lower and nearer the session low. Prices hit a fresh four-week high early on. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $9.31. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $8.68, which is the bottom of last week's upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at $9.15 andthen at Friday's high of $9.23. First support is seen at Friday's low of $8.97 and then at $8.90.

$10.00 ------- the contract high
$8.61 3/4 ---- 10-day moving average
$8.48 -------- 20-day moving average
$8.93 1/2 ---- 40-day moving average
$5.16 3/4 --- the contract low

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday

2011-04-05T00:01:00.003-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

Monday, April 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil prices hit a fresh two-year high overnight and are trading above $108 a barrel. The climbing price of crude oil is also pulling other commodity markets higher. If crude oil prices continue to climb, look for most other commodity markets to do the same. One early clue that the general rally in the commodity markets may be ending would be if the U.S. dollar index started to sustain a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 1,336.20 and then at the February high of 1,342.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,324.60 and then at 1,314.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Friday's high of 2,358.00 and then at 2,370.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,336.25 and then at 2,320.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh nearly three-year high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,300 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 12,280. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,400 and then at 12,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 16/32 and then at 121 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 24/32 and then at Friday's low of 119 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

132 14/32--lifetime high
123 22/32--Previous Month's high
121 7/32--second pivot point resistance
120 26/32--first pivot point resistance
120 25/32--18-day moving average
120 17/32--9-day moving average
120 16/32--previous day's high
120 12/32--previous day's close
120 8/32--100-day moving average
120 4/32--4-day moving average
120 2/32--pivot point
119 21/32--first pivot point support
119 11/32--previous day's low
118 29/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.03.5 and then at last week's high of 119.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118.19.0 andthen at 118.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

126 10/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--previous month's high
119 24/32--18-day moving average
119 22/32--100-day moving average
119 16/32--second pivot point resistance
119 10/32--9-day moving average
119 8/32--first pivot point resistance
119 1/32--previous day's high
118 31/32--4-day moving average
118 31/32--previous day's close
118 24/32--pivot point
118 16/32--first pivot point support
118 9/32--previous day's low
118 --second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.23 and then at 76.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.93 and then at last week's low of 75.88. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher in early trading today and hit a fresh two-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $108.78 and then at $109.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $108.00 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, led by corn. May corn scored a fresh contract high overnight. Wheat and soybean futures prices were firmer and following the lead of corn. Traders continue to digest last week's bullish USDA reports. Grain market traders will still keep an eye on the key "outside markets"--the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. Weather in the U.S. Midwest will become a major factor in the grain markets and will take center stage after the USDA report is digested by traders.

Next Target for the SP 500

2011-04-05T00:01:00.001-07:00

By John Carter

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MrSwing Lite - Swing Trading Picks - 04-04-2011

2011-04-04T06:01:00.003-07:00

By Stock Scan Pro

Some Potential Swing Trading Opportunities for today...

These stocks will be monitored by you every day!!! Follow the master plan and you will be on your way to learn to trade stocks like a PRO... enjoy...

The results are generated by my stock screener. Only the first 5 results are displayed here for every scan.

For full results, subscribe now to StockScanPRO for 30 days FREE, then only pay $9.99 a month!.

SECRETS TO GREAT RESULTS:
CONFIDENCE - PATIENCE- FOCUS - DISCIPLINE

Long Swings

JAS	NYSE	Jo-Ann Stores, Inc.	4/1/2011
PAY	NYSE	VeriFone, Inc.	4/1/2011

Results for AMEX

1 results for AMEX:

SKF

AMEX

ProShares UltraShort Financials

4/1/2011

Results for NYSEARCA

2 results for NYSEARCA:

BGZ	NYSEARCA	Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares	4/1/2011
FAZ	NYSEARCA	Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares	4/1/2011

Swings

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com :
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (force_index(3) <= 0) and (force_index(13) >= 0) and (adx(10) > 30) and (high() < high()[-1]) and (high()[-1] < high()[-2]) and (close() > sma(close,10)) and (close() > sma(close,20))

Results for NASDAQ

Displaying 5 results of 7 for NYSE:

Results for NYSE

DFS	NYSE	Discover Financial Services	4/1/2011
EOG	NYSE	EOG Resources, Inc.	4/1/2011
HLF	NYSE	Herbalife Ltd.	4/1/2011
LO	NYSE	Lorillard, Inc.	4/1/2011
PAY	NYSE	VeriFone, Inc.	4/1/2011

Results for AMEX

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com :
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and ((adx(10) + adx(20))/2 > 30) and (pdi(10)+pdi(20) > mdi(10) + mdi(20)) and (low() < low()[-1]) and (low()[-1] < low()[-2]) and (high() < high()[-1]) and (high()[-1] < high()[-2])

Results for NYSEARCA

0 results for NYSEARCA:

1-2-3-4

Results for NASDAQ

Displaying 5 results of 6 for NYSE:

Results for NYSE

DFS	NYSE	Discover Financial Services	4/1/2011
HLF	NYSE	Herbalife Ltd.	4/1/2011
HSY	NYSE	The Hershey Company	4/1/2011
KR	NYSE	Kroger Co.	4/1/2011
LO	NYSE	Lorillard, Inc.	4/1/2011

Results for AMEX

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com :
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)and(close() > 12)and(sma(close,5)>sma(close,15))and(close() < sma(close,5))and(close() > sma(close,15))and(high() < high()[-1])and(close() > open())

Results for NYSEARCA

1 results for NYSEARCA:

SCO

NYSEARCA

ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil

4/1/2011

Cross

Results for NASDAQ

Displaying 5 results of 9 for NYSE:

Results for NYSE

ACL	NYSE	Alcon Inc.	4/1/2011
ALL	NYSE	Allstate Corporation	4/1/2011
DOX	NYSE	Amdocs Ltd	4/1/2011
KMB	NYSE	Kimberly-Clark Corporation	4/1/2011
LOW	NYSE	Lowe's Companies, Inc.	4/1/2011

Trade on the Russell

2011-04-04T06:01:00.001-07:00

By John Carter

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Only in California: A Fraudulent "Ph.D" With Politically Correct Results Keeps His Job, A Real UCLA Ph.D. Scientist Gets Fired For Dissenting

2011-04-03T23:01:00.007-07:00

UCLA Professor Enstrom goes up against California's "environmental regulation machine" and gets fired.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) claims that diesel particulates, a type of pollution emitted from buses and trucks, contributes to 2,000 premature deaths in California each year.

Hien T. Tran was the lead scientist who wrote the report upon which the heavy duty truck and bus regulations are based. He bought a $1,000 mail order Ph.D. from Thornhill "University" located at 255 Madison, New York. Using his fake Ph.D., the unqualified liar applied for and got the position as Manager of the Health and Ecosystem Assessment Section claiming he has a Ph.D. in statistics from UC-Davis. Some of the board members, the chair of the California Air Resources Board, Mary Nichols knew of the fraud before voting on the controversial regulation. The board members who knew, kept the information from other board members for nearly a year after the vote. The Governor also had the information and failed to take action.

Reason.tv -- UCLA epidemiologist Dr. James Enstrom says the number of premature deaths should be closer to zero. In 2005 Enstrom authored an extensive study that found no relationship between diesel particulates and premature deaths. He says his study, as well as other evidence that agrees with it, have been ignored by an agency bent on passing ever more stringent regulations regardless of their effect on California's economy.

Enstrom blew the whistle on CARB for, among other things, failing to publicize that the lead author of the study that was used to justify the new regulations falsified his education history (he purchased his PhD from an online diploma mill). But UCLA didn't come to Enstrom's defense. In fact, officials informed him that, after 34 years at the university, he was out of a job.

"The environmental regulation machine in powerful in California," says Adam Kissel of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, which is defending Enstrom in the fight to keep his job. "When Dr. Enstrom went up against that machine he was retaliated against." A hearing that begins on April 4 will determine whether Dr. Enstrom keeps his job, and the final decision rests with UCLA Chancellor Gene Block.

Says Kissel, "If Dr. Enstrom loses his job because he exercised his academic freedom, then it's a message to other researchers that you'd better not rock the boat because you might be next."

And what happened to the fraudulent "Doctor" Tran? He got a 60-day suspension and a demotion, but still works as an air pollution specialist for the state of California despite his record of fraudulent misrepresentation of his academic credentials.

Bottom Line: In California, it's more important that your scientific results are politically correct than scientifically accurate, and as long as your results are politically correct, it doesn't matter if you've fraudulently misrepresented your credentials.

April 3 Stock Scan Stocks Overextended from 200d SMA

2011-04-03T23:01:00.005-07:00

By Corey Rosenbloom

It’s back �" and you’d be surprised at how few changes there were in the Top Three Extended Stocks from their 200 day SMA.

I originally posted a similar screen on March 21st and �" surprise �" there few changes to the top listing via the FinViz stock screener.

Let’s take a look at the Top Overextended Stocks and get down to the logic of this list:

From March 21st, the top three list was the following:

1. TSO (Tesoro)
2. NOV (National Oil Well)
3. MEE (Massey Energy)

With COG coming in 1% less than the 4th place stock CBG. COG now occupies the third slot �" up 52% above its 200 day SMA.

Speaking of COG (Cabot Oil & Gas), let’s take a look at its current and past performance:

I’m showing this chart to give you an idea of the effectiveness of this simple scan. To me, this is the easiest way to find strong trending stocks �" the best of the best �" via a simple scan.

Because trading is such an individualized game, some traders see the above chart and say:

“Gosh, it’s so strong. I’ll add it now or perhaps later on a pullback to the 20 EMA.”

while others say:

“Wow �" it’s SO grossly overextended. It’s going to snap-back soon so I’ll short it right now!”

I use these scans for the following reasons:

Stocks that are strongly/the most overextended from their 200 day SMA implies a strong/powerful uptrend in place and odds favoring trend continuation, particularly if the daily charts show price above the 20 and 50 day averages along with other chart factors that are confirming the bullish stance.

In other words, these would be filtering out some of the strongest stocks in the S&P 500 based on price and moving averages �" an important fact to start additional charting.

Second, for those bold and daring, stocks tend to play by mean reversion over time, so if you’re capturing today’s most overextended stocks, you might look for “fade” or “breakdown/reversal” signals on the daily chart.

In essence, depending on your personal type of trading (trend following or mean reversion/fade), this list is a simple way to generate candidates for trading or investing/positioning.

As I mentioned last time, my preferred usage is for trend following/momentum/trend continuation strategies using these top names. I’m not one to fade price/trend strength, but I’m also not one to buy price just because it’s at a new high.

Show me strength then show me a pullback and then I’m interested �" at least from a superior Reward/Risk standpoint.

Let’s take the top-spot stock Tesoro (TSO) for example.

When I originally showed this scan on March 21st, TSO closed at $25.63. It did so very close to its rising 20 day moving average, and the trend structure was positive, hinting at a possible buy-in retracement opportunity.

As of Friday, TSO closed at $27.04, up 5.5%.

Similarly, MEE showed up again in the top three this time. It closed March 21st (an arbitrary date) at $62.40 and not sits at new recovery highs at $69.24, up 11%.

It’s not surprising that all stocks in the top 5 from my March 21st scan were up over that time period, as the broader market surged forward.

Traders who used this length to find “strong names that are likely to get stronger” did better than those trying to use this list as a “strong stock that will soon weaken/breakdown” idea generator.

Anyway, with that bullish news in mind, what are the three weakest (most under-extended) stocks?

TLAB took the top spot again, down 21% from its falling 200d SMA.

TLAB favored the second-style of trading tactics from this list �" bouncing up from $4.92 on March 21 to $5.18 on April 1st �" a tiny price move but a 5% rally in a “Fade” style retracement “snap-back.”

The retracement gives a possible shorting opportunity on a pullback after a so-far successful “snap-back” fade trade.

You can also use this type of information to see what sectors are hot and which are not �" in aggregate.

As I mentioned last week, Basic Materials stood out with 4 of the top 5 slots to the upside. This week, it’s also 4 of 5 of the top slots, though some of the names have changed. If you’re looking for strength, try the Basic Materials sector.

And if you’re looking for weakness, look to Retail/Services/Technology. Of the bottom 10 performers, Services and Technology comprised 9 stock slots (a Financial stock was the only one of the lower “top 10″ not to be in the Service or Technology sectors).

Anyway, as you can see there’s a lot of ways to use this list and I’ll keep you posted a couple times per month on changes or new data from these scans so stay tuned!

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

The Road to $120/BBL CL #F (NYMEX Crude Oil) Just Keep Heading North

2011-04-03T23:01:00.003-07:00

By David Buffalo

Take a look at this daily chart for continuous futures contract for NYMEX Crude Oil (CL # F).

In order to compare apples to apples, I have chosen to use this contract to make a point.

If this contract drives above 110.45 next week, we are very likely to see $113/bbl oil in short order. There are only miniscule barriers to 118.60 (as that was one area after the peak at $147 where prices fell rapidly. There is very little price resistance left to keep it from the 1.618 extension at roughly $121/barrel. While one can claim that crude oil is rallying because of “speculation”, one thing is clear. So much confusion is arising from events in Lybia, Syria, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia with regard to the intent of the rebels the U.S.A., the United Nations, or N.A.T.O. are helping, that the result puts fear in markets. Because we are at a very critical point of resistance in the NYMEX #CL #F contract, it will not take very much in the way of currency-related news to push prices higher, even if the news from the Middle East cools down.

As the Middle East news heats up, we are very close to breaking above 1.4282 on the EURUSD (see chart). On the monthly chart, one could see the completion of an AB=CD pattern as we head into Fall 2011, and that target would be 1.5145. any substantial break above that would put us right back to the old mid-2008 high of 1.6038. That was not a fun time, and consumers were hit hard.

One false step on a banana peel (an extended third war, a continuance of QE II, or any number of things) could trigger a rally in EURUSD and create a scenario for even more rapidly rising oil prices than we have now.

We are again at a critical juncture in energy prices and energy policy. It appears for now that the bulls are in the driver’s seat (and the consumers are standing in front of the bullseye). This market is news driven however. Anything can happen, but for now, the prognosis is not good. We shall soon see.

The U.S. Dollar's Impact on Price Action in the S&P 500, Gold, & Oil

2011-04-03T23:01:00.001-07:00

By Chris Vermeulen

I was starting to put on my bullish hat on Friday morning when out of the blue an ugly close has forced me to rethink my position. After viewing a few hundred charts, I have determined that while I am still leaning into higher prices at this point in time, I will not totally rule out a rollover on the S&P 500. In coming days the news flow will be extreme and headline risk will be everywhere we look. The S&P 500 has been able to deflect worry for quite some time now and in every case the resiliency is unquestionable.

However, we are nearing the beginning of another earnings season which will start in just a few weeks time. First quarter earnings for 2011 are going to be quite interesting and most analysts estimates are relatively challenging. Will the rubber hit the road into earnings? Are we about to see a double top play out into earnings, or is there going to be a breakout which will take us to the SPX 1,400 - 1,415 price level?

I know, I ask a lot of questions but quite frankly that is what is running through my head. The SPX is not out of the woods yet, and the price action on Friday indicated that there is some serious supply overhead and two key resistance levels to break through before the SPX gets back to clear blue skies overhead. That being said Chris Vermeulen has caught a nice part of the recent bounce with his subscribers. He does feel the market is about to get choppy but his analysis is pointing to overall higher prices in the coming weeks.

SPX illustrates the two key price levels:

In addition to the uncertainty that earnings season can bring, the primary reason why I am still leaning into a bullish move in the S&P 500 is the recent price action in the U.S. Dollar Index futures. The U.S. Dollar is scheduled to make its 3 year cycle low sometime this spring and the recent price action is indicative that the recent lows may not be the cycle lows. If the U.S. Dollar Index breaks down below recent lows, I would expect to see a nasty sell off.

The U.S. Dollar Index futures daily chart is shown below:

Whether readers believe that we are going to be in an inflationary environment or a deflationary environment is a topic for a different time, but the chart above is undeniable that recently the U.S. Dollar has declined in value and is exhibiting weak price action. Friday morning it looked as though the U.S. Dollar was going to rip higher, but by the end of the day sellers had stepped in and forced the U.S. Dollar into the red for the session. The price action on Friday highlighted the weakness in the U.S. Dollar and the high levels of overhead supply.

If the U.S. Dollar continues to weaken, in the short run I would view this as a positive for the S&P 500, crude oil, and precious metals. If the dollar breaks down to new lows, it should help buoy the S&P 500 and gold prices. Gold has been consolidating for nearly 6 months and a breakout higher from current price levels would make a trip to $1,500 an ounce very likely. I would not be surprised to see gold work even higher than $1,500 an ounce depending on how violent the selloff in the U.S. Dollar might be.

The weekly chart of gold futures is listed below:

I would think that most investors are aware that crude oil futures have been trading higher recently. On Friday oil prices climbed above recent resistance around the $107/barrel price level and reached new recent highs. Members that belong to my paid service enjoyed a relatively low risk options trade that we put on several weeks ago which involved selling cash secured naked puts on $USO. The trade was closed on Friday for a total gain of 85% of the premium that was sold. For long time readers, my stance on energy has been pretty obvious. In the longer term, energy prices almost have to go up as the world’s demand for energy increases while supplies remain flat.

I will likely get involved in another oil trade at some point in the future, but for right now I’m going to wait for a more prudent entry. Based on current price action, it would not surprise me to see crude oil futures test the $110 �" $112 per barrel price range in the near future. If the $112/barrel price level is breached to the upside, a test of the $120/barrel price level will be likely.

The weekly chart of oil futures is listed below:

Weekend Trend Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in an interesting place as far as the price action is concerned. With earnings season rapidly approaching and a possible break down in the U.S. Dollar Index likely, future price action is uncertain. I am leaning into the bullish camp at this point, but that could change rather quickly based on the price action later this week in both the S&P 500 and the U.S. Dollar Index. One thing worth mentioning is that if the U.S. Dollar Index were to bottom around these levels and a bounce higher transpired, it would put negative price pressure on most asset classes. The fact that price action in the U.S. Dollar Index has been weak lately makes me believe a break down is likely, but as most readers know Mr. Market offers few guarantees.

Assuming the U.S. Dollar breaks down, we should see the S&P 500, precious metals, and oil continue to work higher. My eyes are going to be watching the U.S. Dollar Index closely in coming days/weeks. If a breakdown transpires, the potential upside in precious metals and oil could be intense. Ultimately, I remain slightly bullish on stocks and extremely bullish on oil and precious metals. However, my entire thesis could change if the U.S. Dollar Index starts to firm up and begins to work higher. There are simply too many question marks surrounding price action to take on significant amounts of risk at this point in time.

Weekly Mkt Commentary - Mar 28 - April 1

2011-04-03T20:01:00.001-07:00

By Larry Swing

Dow Jones Industrial Average

March 28-April 1

Open: 12454.52

High: 11960.31

Low: 12141.65

Close: 12376.72

Change: +156.13 (+1.30%)

RSI: 64

MACD: 69.5

Strategy: The markets finally showed some renewed strength after retracement in previous weeks with buyers finally managing to discount the tensions in Libya and earthquake in Japan. While the markets continued to remain in an uptrend, there was hardly any noticeable pause in the week, as the volatility also showed signs of fading out. Consolidation may just be setting in for a short while, before the market resumes an upward journey.

Overview: Stocks closed with handsome gains in the week studded with mixed economic indicators, which point out towards continued strength in the economic recovery of US, even though some short correction may still set in before a strong upside move.

The Dow Jones industrial average advanced 156.13 points in the week, or 1.30%, to close at 12376.72, nearly 90 points below the highest level of the week. The S&P 500, however, gained even more by nearly 18.61 points, or 1.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced nearly 46.54 points, or 1.7%.

Nine of the 10 sectors advanced, with all nine rising at least 1%. The tech sector underperformed, down 0.1%, even though the Nasadq advanced heavily on the back of gains recorded by telecom stocks.

Telecom stocks led the way, soar 4.2% as AT&T gained after investors continued to evaluate the impact of the merger agreement between AT&T and T-Mobile.

Another major M&A news which made sensation was that of a Nasdaq OMX teaming up with Intercontinental Exchange to make an $11.3 billion rival bid for NYSE Euronext . The value of the potential deal is anticipated to be 19% above Deutsche Boerse's recent offer.

The highlight in economic data this week was the encouraging March employment report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 216,000 against an anticipated 185000 rise. Even the private payrolls jumped 230,000 above the expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.8% from 8.9% to cheer the investors and spell a continued economic growth in US.

On the dark side, The Chicago-area PMI for March fell to a reading of 70.6, compared to February's reading of 71.2. Economists were looking for a reading of 68.9.

Elsewhere, The Commerce Department said factory orders fell by 0.1% in February. A 0.4% rise was anticipated by economists.

Other economic reports included the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, which was little changed at 61.2 in March.

Elewhere, the Commerce Department reported construction activity fell 1.4% in February against an anticipated rise of 0.1% on a month on month basis.

The major Dow constituents to advance in the later half of week included Caterpillar, General Electric Co, Home Depot and Coca Cola.

In commodity trading, crude oil gained 2.0% to nearly $108 per barrel.

Even the gold futures advanced 0.2% despite some profit booking and silver brushed aside the $37 per ounce resistance.

The dollar index fell 0.4%.

The Week Ahead

Monday

No major economic indicators

Ben Bernake speech

Tuesday

ICSC-Goldman store sales

ISM Non Mfg Index for March

FOMC Minutes

Wednesday

EIA Petroleum Status

Thursday

Chain store sales for Mar

Initial jobless claims for week

Consumer credit for February

Friday

No economic indicators

More favorable developments

2011-04-03T11:01:00.005-07:00

By James Hamilton

Last week's new economic data began with a personal income and outlays report which suggested slower consumption growth. But the numbers released Friday are a little more encouraging.

First there was the March employment report, which showed an average employment increase for the first quarter of 160,000 jobs per month according to the establishment survey and 219,000 per month according to the household survey. It would take many years of that kind of growth to get back to a labor market that anyone would describe as healthy. But at least at that pace we are finally making some actual progress. Menzie has more.

A stronger positive signal was provided by the March ISM manufacturing report, whose 61.2 reading reflects managers' reports that new orders, production and employment were better in March than in February.

Source: Calculated Risk

Auto sales also continued to climb, up 17% from March 2010 and up 45% from March 2009.

Data source: Wardsauto.com

One worry is that gasoline prices are now about the level we saw at the end of April 2008. Interestingly, March 2011 light vehicle sales are also about the same levels as in April 2008. The big difference is, in April of 2008 we were describing those levels as a 14% drop from April of 2006. Now the car manufacturers count themselves lucky to be doing even that well.

San Diego Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

Markets In Everything: Princess Boot Camp

2011-04-03T11:01:00.003-07:00

"With Britain's royal wedding around the corner, wannabe princesses gathered Saturday at a posh London hotel for a crash course on how to curtsy, what to say to the queen and how keep pesky crumbs off their lips when eating finger sandwiches. The April 29 wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton has fueled a bonanza of opportunities for niche entrepreneurs.

Ms. Jerramy Fine, 33, the American founder of Princess Prep, says that "It gives girls the ability to know that they can be in any situation - whether it's with the queen, their parents, their teacher, a friend and know that they're behaving the right way. And I think that's important, royalty or no royalty."

Saturday's one-day course will be followed by a series of weeklong summer camps in London for 8- to 11-year-old girls. Costing more than $4,000, the camps teach girls about modern and historic princesses, royal history, phone etiquette, how to take compliments and how to curtsy. The girls also volunteer at charities - all while being waited on by a butler called 'Jeeves.' Fines says she expects to draw more Americans for the longer summer camps, which are in their first year."

Source.

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2011-04-03T11:01:00.001-07:00

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Our Trade Deficit = $3.5 Trillion FDI in the U.S. Economy and 6 Million Jobs for Foreign Firms

2011-04-03T03:01:00.003-07:00

In his latest example of economic illiteracy and anti-trade nitwitery, Ian Fletcher claims that "Our trade deficit helps Guangdong, Seoul, Yokohama, even Munich but not Gary, Indiana, Fontana, California, and the other badlands of America's industrial decline."

Don Boudreaux injects a dose of economic sanity into the debate by reminding Fletcher that "Such a claim reveals its author to be unaware that another name for U.S. trade deficit is U.S. capital-account surplus that is, inflows of investment funds into America that supply (directly or indirectly) financing for more capital creation in America."

The chart above shows just how significant those foreign capital inflows into the U.S. economy really are, using BEA data on "direct investment" by foreigners. Foreigners are also buying government Treasury securities and other private U.S. securities (stocks, bonds, bank CDs, etc.), but the chart above is showing just the capital inflows into American companies in industries including manufacturing (Toyota, Honda, BMW, etc.), retail trade (IKEA), publishing, telecommunications, finance and insurance, real estate, engineering, mining, utilities, computer systems, construction, hotels, health care, transportation, etc. (see BEA website here for more information).

Bottom Line: As a direct consequence of our trade deficit, foreigners have invested almost $3.5 trillion into the U.S. economy since 1960 in American companies, with about half of that investment occurring in the last decade. Those trillions of dollars of investments in U.S. companies HAVE generated HUGE benefits for the American economy, and are responsible for almost 6 million U.S. jobs for Americans working at Toyota, Honda, BMW, IKEA, etc.

Feb. Phoenix Homes Sales Highest Since 2007

2011-04-03T03:01:00.001-07:00

By Dr. Mark J. Perry
DQ NEWS -- "A record-high portion of investor and all-cash purchases lifted Phoenix-area February home sales to a four-year high for that month. The median sale price dropped year-over-year for the eighth consecutive month as sales of existing homes priced below $100,000 remained strong and sales of newly built homes, which are typically more expensive, held at a record-low."

A total of 7,248 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow last month in the combined Maricopa-Pinal counties metropolitan area. That was up 5.5 percent from the month before and up 6.2 percent from a year earlier. Last month's sales were the highest for a February since 8,940 sold in February 2007."

Female Gains Dominate Today's Jobs Report

2011-04-02T07:01:00.003-07:00

By Dr. Mark J. Perry
Here are a couple of interesting items in today's Employment Report:

1. From the household survey, there was an increase of 291,000 jobs in March, because of an increase in female employment of 305,000 jobs last month, which was offset slightly by a decrease of 14,000 household jobs for men.

2. The March jobless rate for men remained the same as February at 9.3%, while the unemployment rate for women fell from 8.5% to 8.3%.

Therefore, all of the employment gains in March were female jobs, and all of the overall reduction in the March jobless rate from 8.9% to 8.8% was because of job gains for women. Looking through the report, I didn't find any obvious sources of the job gains for women, e.g. there was a gain of 45,000 jobs for the education and health care sector, where about 70% of the jobs are held by women. But that doesn't come close to explaining 305,000 job increase for women, so I'm somewhat puzzled.....

How Much Further Can the EUR Rise?

2011-04-02T07:01:00.001-07:00

By Kathy Lien

Sorry for the radio silence - have been on vacation then corporate craziness

The euro staged a remarkable rally today after dipping as low as 1.4060 following the U.S. non-farm payrolls release. The resilience of the single currency is incredibly impressive considering that Standard & Poor’s downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt rating and Fitch warned about the possibility of their own downgrade in the near future. Both rating agencies currently have Ireland at the same level but a downgrade by Fitch would move Irish debt one step closer to junk.

However none of these rating actions have deterred forex traders from buying euros in anticipation of the first rate change in nearly two years. At the last monetary policy meeting in March, ECB President Trichet said interest rates could be increased as early as April. Since then, the central bank’s message has been very consistent with a number of ECB officials reiterating the need for tighter monetary policy. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is still debating whether QE2 should be cut short. Although many members of the Federal Reserve have grown more optimistic, there are also a number of Fed officials who believe that caution is warranted.

As a result, the best that we can expect from the Fed won’t nearly be as hawkish as the least that we can expect from the ECB. The better than expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday helped to lift the dollar against the euro but we believe that the EUR/USD could make a run for fresh year to date highs ahead of the ECB’s rate announcement on Thursday. The direction of interest rates is one of the most important drivers of currencies and investors usually prefer to invest in currencies where the interest rate is high and growing and the euro certainly fits the bill. Aside from the ECB rate decision, Eurozone retail sales, German factory orders, industrial production and the trade balance are also scheduled for release. Baring any major downside surprises, the euro should be on its way to a new year to date high. After the rate decision however, the euro could weaken if a classic buy the rumor, sell the news dynamic takes hold.

This chart shows how rate hike expectations have changed in recent weeks:

In terms of how high the EUR/USD can rise, there is a VERY good chance that the currency pair will make a run for its Nov high of 1.4282. If this level is broken, then it could be clear sailing to 1.45

Market Commentary - April 1

2011-04-02T00:01:00.001-07:00

By Larry Swing

DJIA Industrial Average

April 1

Open: 12321.02

High: 12454.52

Low: 12301.11

Close: 12376.72

Change: +56.99 (+0.46%)

RSI: 64

MACD: 59.5

Strategy: Stocks in US remained quiet on the final day of the first quarter as investors looked satisfied with 6% gains that indices have already made since the start of the year. DJIA is trying to regain feet above 12300 points.

Commentary:

U.S. stocks closed with moderate gains Friday, pushing the major indexes to their second straight weekly rise, after an encouraging report on jobs growth raised optimism on the U.S. economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 56.99 points, or 0.46%, to close at 12,376.72. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index also advanced 6.58 points to close at 1,332.41, with industrials and financials leading sector. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 8.53 points to close at 2,789.60 to log a weekly gain of 1.7%.

Stocks moved up after the U.S. government reported that employers added more jobs than anticipated in March, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. The latest report showed the U.S. economy created 216,000 jobs in March, beating the forecasts and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.8%.

Other economic reports included the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, which was little changed at 61.2 in March.

Elewhere, the Commerce Department reported construction activity fell 1.4% in February against an anticipated rise of 0.1% on a month on month basis.

The major Dow constituents to advance in the session included Caterpillar 1.59%, General Electric Co 1.45%, Home Depot 1.35% and Coca Cola 1.33%.

However, the laggards amongst the Dow constituents included Intel -2.28%, Alcoa 1.08%, Cisco -0.64% and Walt Disney -0.56%.

As many as 23 Dow constituents closed the day on a higher side and another 7 stocks closed lower.

Industrials (+0.9%), Financials (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%) and Utilities (+0.7%) sectors remained in focus and logged up healthy gains in the session.

However, Tech (-0.1%) and Telecom (-0.1%) sectors closed lower.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility gauge VIX fell 1.9% to 17.41 after hitting an intraday low of 16.44, after touching 27 just two weeks back.

Tech and telecom stocks were particularly hard hit with JDS Uniphase Corp. and F5 Networks Inc. leading the downward trend following a weak outlook.

The dollar rose against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for May delivery rose $1.40 to $108.12 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery slipped $11.20 to $1,428.10 an ounce.

The Day Ahead

Monday

Ben Bernake speech

April's Early-Month Hot Streak

2011-04-01T12:01:00.007-07:00

By Rob Hanna
1st Day of month bullish tendencies have been well documented here and elsewhere. April is an interesting month in that not only is the 1st day typically strong, but since 1994 the first week has performed especially well. This is illustrated in the table below.

Quite the little hot streak. And in case you're wondering, the last time the 1st 4 days of April netted out to a loss was 2002.

Euro Maintained a Strong Tone

2011-04-01T12:01:00.005-07:00

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

EUR/USD

The Euro maintained a strong tone in European trading on Thursday, but it was unable to break resistance levels above 1.4230 and drifted weaker with short-term players unwilling to commit to positions.

The flash Euro-zone inflation rate rose to 2.6% for March from 2.4% previously as energy costs continued to spike higher. The data will reinforce inflation fears within the ECB and will also make the central bank even more determined to raise interest rates next week. There will also be additional speculation that the bank will plan a series of rate increases, although this will certainly be more contentious, not least as it will exacerbate political tensions surrounding weaker Euro-zone members.

Portugal revised up the 2010 budget deficit following a change in accounting methods and a general election will be held in early May. At current yields, Portugal remains effectively shut out of bond markets and there will be further expectations that a bailout package is inevitable. There were no further surprises from the Irish banking-sector stress tests, but the situation remains perilous and structural fears remained a very important market issue which will certainly unsettle the Euro.

US jobless claims fell to 388,000 in the latest reporting week from a revised 394,000 previously while the Chicago PMI index edged lower to 70.6 from a revised 71.2 previously and remained at very high levels. The data will reinforce expectations of solid economic growth and confidence will remain firm if there is robust payroll data on Friday.

Comments from Fed officials remained generally more hawkish with Regional President Kocherlakota stating that interest rates may need to rise before the end of 2011 and the rhetoric provided some dollar support. The Euro consolidated just above 1.4150 ahead of the US employment data.

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Yen

The dollar found support above 82.50 against the yen during Thursday and rallied to test resistance near 83.20. A break above this level triggered further selling pressure on the yen as it weakened to lows near 83.70 in Asia on Tuesday.

The yen remained vulnerable against the dollar on yield grounds, especially with further speculation that the Fed will shift towards a tighter monetary policy. There was also further interest in carry trades funded through the yen as markets looked to take a positive attitude towards risk.

The Japanese Tankan report was broadly in line with market expectations with a rise to 6 in the first quarter from 5 previously. The impact was limited, especially as a high proportion of the responses were received before the March 11 earthquake. There was some disappointment that capital spending plans were scaled back and underlying confidence in the Japanese fundamentals remains weak.�

Sterling

Sterling pushed to a high around 1.6140 against the dollar during Thursday, but was unable to sustain the advanced and quickly retreated back to below 1.61 and dipped further to test support near 1.6020 in US trading, although the UK currency did find support near 0.8850 against the Euro.

Underlying confidence in the economy remained fragile with further concerns that weaker consumer spending would have a negative impact on the wider economy as fiscal tightening takes effect. The latest PMI surveys will be watched closely with the manufacturing data due on Friday and the series has proved strong over the past few months. At this stage, markets are expecting the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold next week, but there will be caution ahead of the decision.

The UK banking sector will remain an important focus and there is likely to be concern over exposure to bad debts within the European banks which could have a serious impact in undermining Sterling.

Swiss franc

The dollar remained generally on the defensive against the franc in European trading on Thursday, but it found support below 0.9150 and rallied back to a peak above 0.92 as the Swiss currency came under wider pressure.

There was further international interest in carry trades which had an important negative impact on the franc with the Swiss currency seen as an attractive funding currency if there is a sustained improvement in risk appetite.

There were still be fears over the Euro-zone structural vulnerabilities which tempered franc selling to some extent and volatility levels are liable to remain high.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Australian dollar

The Australian dollar has maintained a strong tone over the past 24 hours and pushed to fresh 29-year highs around 1.0370 against the US currency before drifting weaker on profit taking. There has been further market interest in carry trades which has boosted demand for the local currency.

The manufacturing PMI index weakened to 47.9 for March from 51.1 previously, maintaining the run of fragile survey data and the weaker than expected Chinese PMI data also had some impact in curbing Australian dollar demand.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Energies Market Commentary

2011-04-01T12:01:00.003-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

May crude oil closed up $2.46 at $106.73 a barrel yesterday. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh three-week high yesterday as the bulls gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum. The crude oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A potentially bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern on the daily bar chart was negated yesterday. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the bulls is producing a close above strong technical resistance at the March high of $108.25 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $102.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $106.83 and then at $107.59. First support is seen at $106.00 and then at $105.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

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May heating oil closed up 510 points at $3.1044 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and hit a fresh three-week high. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly and quarterly high close yesterday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $3.1426. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $3.0000. First resistance lies at $3.1426 and then at $3.1750. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $3.0525 and then at this week's low of $3.0183.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

May unleaded gasoline closed up 446 points at $3.1021. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and scored a fresh contract high. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly and quarterly high close yesterday. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.2000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $3.0000. First resistance is seen at yesterday's contract high of $3.1200 and then at $3.1500. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $3.0575 and then at $3.0250.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

May natural gas closed up 3.9 cents at $4.394 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $4.559. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $4.20. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $4.442 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at $4.30 and then at $4.25.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Friday

2011-04-01T12:01:00.001-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Today is another extra important trading day. It's the first day of the month and of the quarter. That means there could be fresh "fund" money allocated to various markets, pumping up the volume and possibly the volatility in those markets. The U.S. jobs report is also out today, which should also make for some more active trading.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week's high of 1,327.50 and then at March high of 1,336.20 and then at the February high of 1,342.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,320.80 and then at 1,314.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh four-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,360.00 and then at 2,370.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,335.50 and then at 2,320.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 12,260 and then more stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday's high of 12,320 and then at 12,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 6/32 and then at 120 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 119 19/32 and then at 119 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

132 14/32--lifetime high
123 22/32--Previous Month's high
121 14/32--second pivot point resistance
120 31/32--previous day's high
120 22/32--18-day moving average
120 22/32--first pivot point resistance
120 19/32--9-day moving average
120 10/32--100-day moving average
120 6/32--pivot point
120 2/32--4-day moving average
119 29/32--previous day's close
119 23/32--previous day's low
119 14/32--first pivot point support
118 30/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.26.5 and then at 119.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 118.19.0 and then at 118.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

126 10/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--previous month's high
119 24/32--100-day moving average
119 23/32--second pivot point resistance
119 23/32--18-day moving average
119 15/32--previous day's high
119 13/32--9-day moving average
119 9/32--first pivot point resistance
119 --pivot point
118 31/32--4-day moving average
118 26/32--previous day's close
118 24/32--previous day's low
118 18/32--first pivot point support
118 9/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading, on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.39 and then at this week's high of 76.70. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.21 and then at 76.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher in early trading today and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more upside momentum this week. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $107.65 and then at the March high of $108.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $106.58 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn sharply extended its gains with 35-plus cent gains overnight. Meantime, wheat and soybean futures prices were slightly lower. Look for more active trading in the grains today, as traders continue to digest the bullish USDA reports that were issued Thursday morning. Grain market traders will still keep an eye on the key "outside markets"--the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. Weather in the U.S. Midwest will become a major factor in the grain markets and will take center stage after the USDA report is digested by traders.

MrSwing Lite - Swing Trading Picks - 04-01-2011

2011-04-01T05:01:00.007-07:00

By Stock Scan Pro

Some Potential Swing Trading Opportunities for today...

These stocks will be monitored by you every day!!! Follow the master plan and you will be on your way to learn to trade stocks like a PRO... enjoy...

The results are generated by my stock screener. Only the first 5 results are displayed here for every scan.

For full results, subscribe now to StockScanPRO for 30 days FREE, then only pay $9.99 a month!.

SECRETS TO GREAT RESULTS:
CONFIDENCE - PATIENCE- FOCUS - DISCIPLINE

Long Swings

Window

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com :
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 7) and (adx(10) > 30) and (pdi(10) > mdi(10)) and (high() < sma(close,5))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

5 results for NYSE:

BGS	NYSE	B&G Foods, Inc.	3/31/2011
CYS	NYSE	Cypress Sharpridge Investments, Inc.	3/31/2011
JAS	NYSE	Jo-Ann Stores, Inc.	3/31/2011
RHT	NYSE	Red Hat, Inc.	3/31/2011
SJM	NYSE	J. M. Smucker Company	3/31/2011

Results for AMEX

1 results for AMEX:

SKF

AMEX

ProShares UltraShort Financials

3/31/2011

Results for NYSEARCA

3 results for NYSEARCA:

BGZ	NYSEARCA	Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares	3/31/2011
FAZ	NYSEARCA	Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares	3/31/2011
SCO	NYSEARCA	ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil	3/31/2011

Swings

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

1 results for NYSE:

SFD

NYSE

Smithfield Foods Inc.

3/31/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

0 results for NYSEARCA:

1-2-3-4

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

0 results for NYSE:

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

1 results for NYSEARCA:

SCO

NYSEARCA

ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil

3/31/2011

Cross

Results for NASDAQ

Displaying 5 results of 20 for NYSE:

Results for NYSE

BGS	NYSE	B&G Foods, Inc.	3/31/2011
BJ	NYSE	BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc.	3/31/2011
CBE	NYSE	Cooper Industries, Ltd.	3/31/2011
COF	NYSE	Capital One Financial Corporation	3/31/2011
COV	NYSE	Covidien plc	3/31/2011

Gains Limit up again

2011-04-01T05:01:00.005-07:00

By Hubert Senters

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Trade on the ES

2011-04-01T05:01:00.003-07:00

By John Carter

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Trade on the ES

2011-04-01T05:01:00.001-07:00

By John Carter

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Market Commentary - March 31

2011-04-01T03:02:00.001-07:00

By Larry Swing

DJIA Industrial Average

March 31

Open: 12350.61

High: 12381.68

Low: 12319.01

Close: 12319.73

Change: -30.88 (-0.25%)

RSI: 60

MACD: 57.5

Commentary:

Despite a quiet close to the first quarter, the U.S. stocks ended a strong first quarter Thursday. While the geo-political tensions failed to disturb the market run, yet the investors appear to have turned slightly cautious in the month of March.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 30.88 points, or 0.25% Thursday ahead of the all important employment report. The S&P 500 fell 2.4 points, or 0.2% and Nasdaq Composite gained nearly 4 points, or less than 0.2%.

With this, The Dow has advanced 6.5%, the S&P 500 up 5.6% and the Nasdaq up 4.8% in the first three months of the year.

Amongst the index stocks, 3M with 1.11%, United Technologies 0.50%, Coca Cola 0.45% and McDonald’s 0.37% were the major stocks to advance.

However, there were some Dow components like American Express -1.55%, Intel -1.37%, Home Depot -1.36% and Cisco -1.04% shed more than 1% in the day.

An aggregate of 8 stocks advanced amongst the 30 Dow constituents and the others slipped in the day.

Advancing Sectors in the session included Industrials (+0.4%) and Materials (+0.4%). However, Tech (-0.3%), Financials (-0.4%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%) sectors remained weak in the day.

Amongst the economic indicators released Thursday, The Chicago-area PMI for March fell to a reading of 70.6, compared to February's reading of 71.2. Economists were looking for a reading of 68.9.

Elsewhere, The Commerce Department said factory orders fell by 0.1% in February. A 0.4% rise was anticipated by economists.

Meanwhile, in the latest jobless claims released, Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 26 slipped marginally to 388,000. But the same was slightly greater than the 383,000 initial claims that had been expected.

On Friday, the government will release the closely watched monthly jobs report. It has been forecast that a 180,000 jump in payrolls for March may have been noticed, with the unemployment rate steady at 8.9%.

Elsewhere, Treasury Secretary, now in China for a meeting of G-20 finance ministers, said developing nations need flexible exchange rates to help absorb economic shocks.

Intel shares were in limelight on the Dow, as it slipped 1.4% after analysts at FBR Capital cut their price target on the chipmaker.

Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffet’s flagship company fell 2%, after Buffett's heir apparent, David Sokol, quit. In a press release Wednesday, Buffett termed the resignation as a total surprise.

Shares of defense contractor Northrup Grumman fell 9% after analysts at Citigroup cut their price target for the company.

The dollar fell against the euro and the Japanese yen, but was flat versus the British pound.

Oil for May delivery gained $2.36 to $106.63 a barrel to scale to a new high.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $15.10 to $1,438.90 an ounce. The other precious metal-silver also continued to be strong in the session and closed the day at over $37 an ounce for June delivery.

The Day Ahead

Friday

Monthly employment report for March

Automobile sales for March

ISM Mfg Index for March

Construction spending for Feb

Theme Thinking � SPY Moving Between Round Number Levels

2011-04-01T02:01:00.007-07:00

By Corey Rosenbloom

I strongly advocate “thinking in themes” rather than indicators and keeping your focus as much as possible on price structure.

Namely, you want to know “what is price doing and how effectively is it doing in?”

Here �" let’s look at the current SPY intraday world to pick up on a theme that you may have missed unless you were watching closely:

It’s often best to reserve at least some of your analysis for thinking in “Themes” or “Concepts” like this.

Ask:� “Is there any obvious pattern that I might be missing?”

Market Character/Behavior changes from time to time, and if you’re able to pick up on these little patterns ahead of the crowd, you’ll do a better job as long as the market continues to respond to the theme.

For example, on the rally up off the mid-March low, we’ve seen a consistent pattern of the SPY (market) pausing at a round-number level for a day or so and then busting through the level to the next overhead ’round number,’ which gives intraday traders plenty of opportunity to profit from this simple “theme.”

I’m a huge advocate of chart/trading simplicity and this is about as simple as it gets �" simple, but so far effective.

The $130 level (1,300 in the S&P 50o) was a VERY obvious resistance level we all watched and price had trouble overcoming this level initially.

However, once it did (with a little “Finger” or Bear Trap under $129 I might add) then the race was on for intraday traders to play for the next upside target of $131.

Price spent the better part of March 24th struggling at the overhead level and on the next session, price broke above $131 on its journey to $132 �" a tradable move intraday.

The market again had similar trouble at the key $132 level as it did at $130 (1,320 and 1,300 in the SP500) and then yesterday we had a gap-up (the expectation and trade follow-through I mentioned was likely in the prior night’s Idealized Trades member report) off the gap opening 50 cents higher to the new $133 intraday target.

Yesterday and today, we’ve had similar difficulty breaking above the $133 “round number” level, though if we do soon (tomorrow’s Jobs Report could be the catalyst), then if the “Theme” continues, we can expect a similar style move to $134.

But if the immediate history repeats, at least on the cases of March 23 and March 29, we’ve had a little “Trap” or “Finger” temporary breakdown of a round number level which led to the fuel to power the market up through the next level.

A pure repeat would take the market down under $132 temporarily and then rocketing again up above $133 on its way to $134.

No one knows what is going to happen, but thinking in themes like this can help you plan out your plays/trades via IF/THEN logic (“IF a breakout happens, THEN I will trade an expected move to my new target”).

Keep your plans objective (non-biased) and based on price structure and always be aware that themes do change �" particularly as more market participants pick up on them.

As such, early recognition is always key.� Lessons like this can help you think in terms of price-based market themes.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

USO Breaking Out

2011-04-01T02:01:00.005-07:00

By Mike Paulenoff

With NYMEX WTI and BRENT OIL up $2/bbl, the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) is acting well. The USO sure does look like it's breaking out to the upside from its month-long sideways digestion area, which my work argues projects towards a next target zone of 43.60-44.20.

insert.a.chart.USO

At this juncture, only a downside reversal and violation of Tuesday's pullback low at 41.16 will compromise the budding upside breakout.

Markets Were Looking to Concentrate on Yield Considerations

2011-04-01T02:01:00.003-07:00

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

EUR/USD

The Euro found support on dips towards 1.4050 against the Euro during Wednesday and rallied to a high near 1.4140 during the New York session with the currency holding firm in Asia on Thursday as the dollar still found it very difficult to gain any significant traction against major currencies.

Markets were looking to concentrate on yield considerations ahead of the ECB council meeting next Thursday. Comments from ECB members have remained consistently hawkish over the past week and there is no sign that the central bank is backing away from a rate hike. Indeed, there has been increased speculation that the bank would either look for a 0.50% rate increase this time or would effectively announce a planned series of increases.

Yield considerations will tend to support the Euro initially, but a series of rate increases has been priced in and the structural vulnerabilities will also remain a very important negative factor, especially with the Irish banking-sector stresses tests likely to show further capital will be required. Markets may again lose confidence in the Euro as sovereign risks intensify.

The US ADP employment data was broadly in line with expectations with a 201,000 private-sector payroll increase for March following a revised 208,000 gain previously and there were expectations of a solid payroll outcome on Friday. There was also further speculation that the Federal Reserve would not look to extend the quantitative easing programme beyond June and could even curtail the existing bond-buying programme early.

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Yen

The dollar maintained a strong tone against the yen during Wednesday and pushed to a high near 83.20 before retreating and testing support levels below 82.80. The yen has continued to be undermined by yield considerations as Treasury yields remain higher following speculation that the Fed will end quantitative easing early.

Carry-trade activity remains important and there has been increased speculation that the yen will be used as a global funding currency, especially if selling the dollar is seen as less attractive.

Underlying confidence in the economy remains weak with the PMI manufacturing index retreating back to below the 50 level in the latest reading. There has also been an increase in overseas bond buying.

There will still be caution over aggressive yen selling and there was evidence of exporter offers above the 83 area.

Sterling

Sterling resisted a further test of support in the 1.5950 area against the dollar on Wednesday and advanced to a high just above 1.61 as the UK currency also strengthened through 0.88 against the Euro.

The UK economic data offered some support to Sterling with the services sector rebounding in January following December's sharp decline. The data is old, but will increase hopes for a solid first-quarter GDP reading. There was also a stronger than expected CBI retail sales report for March.

Consumer confidence, however, remained at a weak level and there will still be fears that a decline in real incomes will have a serious negative impact on consumer spending which will also derail Sterling over the next few months with the Bank of England still finding it difficult to respond to higher inflation.

The Irish banking-sector stresses tests will be watched closely on Thursday and a higher than expected capital requirement would also tend to unsettle the UK currency.

Swiss franc

The dollar spiked to a high near 0.9270 against the franc on Wednesday, but then retreated rapidly with a low around 0.9170 in Asian trading on Thursday as the Euro found it difficult to hold above 1.30 against the Swiss currency.

The Swiss KOF business confidence index was slightly stronger than expected at 2.24 for March from a revised 2.19 previously and this remains a very high figure historically which will boost confidence in the economy.

There will still be some increase in use of the franc as a carry trade if global confidence improves, but there will also be unease over the potential for capital flight if Euro fears intensify again.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Australian dollar

The Australian dollar found support below 1.03 against the US currency during Wednesday and pushed to fresh 29-year highs just above 1.0340 during local trading on Thursday.

The domestic data offered some support with a reported 0.5% increase in retail sales for February while there was an increase in private-sector credit, but the building approvals data was sharply weaker than expected which will dampen confidence to some extent.

The currency continued to gain support from a renewed increase in carry-trade activity during the session as equity markets also proved resilient.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

Grain Market Analysis

2011-04-01T02:01:00.001-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

May corn futures closed down 10 cents at $6.61 3/4 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and saw position evening ahead of Thursday morning's USDA report. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. Prices are still in the middle of a wide trading range marked by the contract high of $7.44 1/4 and by the March low of $6.08. How the corn market closes on Friday will be a very good clue on the next near-term trend in prices. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above psychological resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance for May corn is seen at yesterday's high of $6.75 and then at $6.80. First support is seen this week's low of $6.61 1/4 and then at $6.50. �

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

�

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May soybeans closed up 10 1/2 cents at $13.72 a bushel yesterday. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh three-week high close yesterday. Traders are awaiting the key USDA planting intentions report on Thursday morning. Look for more volatile trading Thursday and Friday, in the wake of the report. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $13.85 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $13.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $13.74 and then at $13.80. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $13.55 3/4 and then at this week's low of $13.41. �

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

�

May soybean meal closed up $1.90 at $360.50 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $365.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $348.30. First resistance comes in at yesterday's high of $361.50 and then at $365.00. First support is seen at $357.50 and then at yesterday's low of $355.80.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

�

May bean oil closed up 30 points at 57.32 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and hit a fresh three-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum yesterday. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 55.75 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 57.47 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 56.89 cents and then at 56.50 cents. �

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

�

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 10 cents at $7.27 1/4 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday. Trading has turned choppy. Look for the wheat market to be a follower of corn and soybeans for the next several weeks. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $7.53 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $7.42 and then at $7.50. First support lies at this week's low of $7.21 and then at $7.10. �

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

�

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 5 cents at $8.62 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday in quieter trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance at $9.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $8.25. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $8.68 1/2 and then at $8.75. First support is seen at $8.51 3/4 and then at this week's low of $8.46. �

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

�

May oats closed down 1 1/2 cents at $3.49 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field at present. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of $3.13 1/2. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.70. First support lies at yesterday's low of $3.44 1/4 and then at $3.40. First resistance is seen at $3.53 and then at this week's high of $3.55 1/4. �

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

�

GMI: 6; new QQQ short term up-trend; RWB stock: OVTI

2011-03-31T06:01:00.007-07:00

By Dr. Wish

By my count, Wednesday was the first day of a new QQQ short term up-trend, within a longer term up-trend. I am now slowly wading into QLD and will add to my position as long as the new up-trend continues. I will be more certain of the staying power of this up-trend after it reaches its fifth day. There were 445 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday. Clearly, new highs are back in style and it makes sense to focus on strong growth stocks again. For example, OVTI is an RWB rocket stock that just reached an all-time high. Click on weekly chart to enlarge.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 5
t2108: 67

There's Always A New Recession Lurking

2011-03-31T06:01:00.005-07:00

By James Picerno

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and newly minted Presidential candidate thinks that a new recession is coming. He's right, of course. There's always a new recession coming. There have been 33 economic contractions in the U.S. since the mid-1800s, according to NBER, and it's a safe bet that number 34 is waiting in the wings. As Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, recently remarked: "I devoutly hope our next downturn won't come for quite some time, but it surely will come eventually."

A recession could start tomorrow, or five years from now. The challenge is developing some insight that improves the odds of calling the next turning point in the economic cycle with something better than random odds. Pawlenty's forecast can be dismissed as political commentary, of course. After all, he's formally announced his candidacy and so he has a vested interest in sowing doubts about the economic outlook under the stewardship of the current President. It doesn't help that his analysis is a bit thin on the details. But even if Pawlenty's motives are suspect, his conclusion isn't beyond the pale.

Alan Blinder, an economics professor at Princeton, also worries about the economy, although he's cautiously optimistic that growth will prevail, as he explains in today's Wall Street Journal.

Calling turning points in the business cycle is tricky business, of course, even for respected economists. The future's always uncertain and that makes fools of everyone eventually. Yet there are a number of productive approaches to evaluating the odds that a new recession is approaching. In fact, countless volumes have been written on the subject. The challenge for investors is paring the list down to a manageable list for monitoring and evaluating this risk. One that deserves to be on the short list is keeping an eye on consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy.

A few years ago, Joseph Ellis offered an intriguing take on how to analyze this critical factor, offering details in his book Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles . In essence, Ellis says that the annual pace in real (inflation-adjusted) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) has a strong history of dispensing early warning signs of approaching recessions. He also notes that real average hourly earnings of nonsupervisory workers sheds light on changes in PCE's trend.

With that in mind, how do these metrics stack up these days? The trend in real PCE continues to look strong, as the chart below shows. But there's a warning sign in the recent weakness in average hourly earnings. The basic message seems to be that if inflation continues rising, the economy could be in trouble.

The next update on consumer price inflation is scheduled for release on April 15. As we discussed yesterday, the market's inflation forecast appears relatively stable. But some analysts worry that the stability will be short lived and so inflation is headed higher, a change that would put more downward pressure on real wages, which in turn could bite into consumer spending. If so, there's' at least one reason for thinking that the risk of recession may be inching higher.

Grain Market Analysis from Jim Wyckoff

2011-03-31T06:01:00.003-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 10 cents at $6.61
3/4 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
saw position evening ahead of Thursday morning's USDA
report. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage, but are fading. Prices are still in
the middle of a wide trading range marked by the contract
high of $7.44 1/4 and by the March low of $6.08. How the
corn market closes on Friday will be a very good clue on the next
near-term trend in prices. Corn bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above
psychological resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $6.50.
First resistance for May corn is seen at today's high of
$6.75 and then at $6.80. First support is seen this
week's low of $6.61 1/4 and then at $6.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

May soybeans closed up 10 1/2 cents at $13.72 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at
a fresh three-week high close today. Traders are awaiting
the key USDA planting intentions report on Thursday
morning. Look for more volatile trading Thursday and
Friday, in the wake of the report. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing May prices above solid chart
resistance at $13.85 3/4 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $13.00.
First resistance is seen at today's high of $13.74 and
then at $13.80. First support is seen at today's low of
$13.55 3/4 and then at this week's low of $13.41.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May soybean meal closed up $1.90 at $360.50 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices
are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $365.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of
$348.30. First resistance comes in at today's high of
$361.50 and then at $365.00. First support is seen at
$357.50 and then at today's low of $355.80. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

May bean oil closed up 30 points at 57.32 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at 55.75
cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 57.47
cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at
today's low of 56.89 cents and then at 56.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 10 cents at $7.27 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Trading has turned choppy. Look for the wheat market to
be a follower of corn and soybeans for the next several
weeks. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at last week's high of $7.53 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at $7.00. First resistance is seen
at this week's high of $7.42 and then at $7.50. First
support lies at this week's low of $7.21 and then at
$7.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 5 cents at $8.62 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today in quieter
trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $9.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at last week's low of $8.25. First resistance is seen at
last week's high of $8.68 1/2 and then at $8.75. First
support is seen at $8.51 3/4 and then at this week's low
of $8.46. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

May oats closed down 1 1/2 cents at $3.49 1/2 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field at
present. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at
the March low of $3.13 1/2. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.70. First support lies
at today's low of $3.44 1/4 and then at $3.40. First
resistance is seen at $3.53 and then at this week's high
of $3.55 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Thursday

2011-03-31T06:01:00.001-07:00

By Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, March 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Today is an extra important trading day. For the
grains, the much anticipated USDA planting
intentions report is issued this morning. Look for
more active and volatile trading in the grains
today and on Friday. For all markets, today is the
last trading day of the month and of the quarter.
That makes today an extra important trading day
from a technical perspective.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Wednesday's high
of 1,327.50 and then at March high of 1,336.20 and
then at the February high of 1,342.80. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at
Wednesday's low of 1,314.80 and then at 1,300.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at Wednesday's high
of 2,343.25 and then at 2,360.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Wednesday's low of
2,320.25 and then at 2,300.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Wednesday's low of 12,260 and then more
stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday's high of 12,320 and then at 12,350.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above
the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 120 21/32 and then at 121 even.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 120 even and
then at this week's low of 119 19/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
�
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

132 14/32--lifetime high
120 31/32--second pivot point resistance
120 27/32--9-day moving average
120 22/32--first pivot point resistance
120 21/32--18-day moving average
120 18/32--Previous Month's high
120 14/32--previous day's high
120 13/32--100-day moving average
120 12/32--previous day's close
120 6/32--4-day moving average
120 4/32--pivot point
119 27/32--first pivot point support
119 19/32--previous day's low
119 9/32--second pivot point support
115 7/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at the overnight high of 119.12.0 and then at
119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 119.03.0 and then at Wednesday's
low of 118.19.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

126 10/32--lifetime high
119 26/32--100-day moving average
119 22/32--18-day moving average
119 20/32--9-day moving average
119 20/32--second pivot point resistance
119 12/32--first pivot point resistance
119 9/32--previous month's high
119 7/32--previous day's high
119 5/32--previous day's close
119 2/32--4-day moving average
119 --pivot point
118 24/32--first pivot point support
118 19/32--previous day's low
118 12/32--second pivot point support
116 3/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 76.41 and then at this week's
high of 76.70. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 75.88 and then at the contract low
of 75.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher in early trading today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at this week's high of
$105.76 and then at $106.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $105.00 and then at
$104.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading, as
traders are eagerly awaiting this morning's USDA
planting intentions report. Look for more active
trading in the grains today and Friday. Grain
market traders will still keep an eye on the key
"outside markets"--the U.S. dollar index, crude oil
and the U.S. stock indexes. Weather in the U.S.
Midwest will become a major factor in the grain
markets and will take center stage after the USDA
report is digested by traders.