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Free stock pick for 03/02/2011

The GMI rose to 5 and the GMI-R to 7 on Monday. I began a new QQQQ short term up-trend count. I still will feel more confidence in the new up-trend if it reaches day 5. Nevertheless, it is okay for me to go long again in my short term account. My university pension account has remained 100% long in mutual funds the entire time. There were 367 stocks at new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday, a sign of strength…

The students in my classes use the TC2007 stock charting program to analyze stocks. The Worden people, who offer the program, are coming to the Washington, DC area this Friday and Saturday. The one day workshop is free in the morning and will take place at the University of Maryland Conference Center in College Park. I use TC2007 to run all of my analyses and statistics. UMDSMC participants may want to attend the workshop on one of these days. It is how I learned to use the TC2007 software. I will attend the workshop on one of these days.

A stock on Monday’s new high list that is at its all-time high and and a RWB rocket stock is PRGO. Note in the weekly chart below that PRGO has appeared in IBD’s New America column of visionary companies twice in 2010. I always want to buy the strongest stocks that are near all-time highs. In the stock market, the strong get stronger, until they top. When they top, I always have an exit plan to limit losses. Most people want to buy a stock that will go to the moon, but are reluctant to buy stocks that are launched and heading to the stars. People looking for bargains in the stock market often end up with losers.

• gmi: 5
• gmi-r: 7
• t2108: 70

• Chinese manufacturing activity softened in February, as mounting inflationary pressures acted as a negative drag on demand, though overall manufacturing activity still expanded, according to two purchasing managers surveys of the nation's industrial activity released Tuesday. 
• Analysts cautioned against reading too much into the data, as it offers a snapshot of factory activity during a month when businesses shut down across the country to mark the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.
• China's official purchasing managers index, released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, was 52.2 in February compared to 52.9 in January.    Tthe survey marked the 24th straight month that the PMI remained above the all-important level of 50, which separates expansion from contraction.
• Meanwhile a privately compiled PMI put out by HSBC and U.K group Markit, eased to a seven-month low of 51.7, down from 54.5 in January. 
• New export orders were negative on a month-on-month basis, marking the first such contraction since August.  HSBC also said....was the sharpest month-on-month drop since the series began in April 2004.
• HSBC's chief economist for China, Hongbin Qu, said concerns about a slump in growth were unwarranted, though he acknowledged the data confirmed China's manufacturing is cooling. This is a good number, suggesting Beijing's policy tightening is starting to cool excessive growth and inflation."
• Bank of America-Merrill Lynch downplayed both PMIs because of potential distortions during the holiday month and an inability to adjust the data series the for seasonal factors in a credible way. 
• The HSBC survey covers 400 companies, while the federation's monthly reports measure data from 820 companies across a range of industries and is an indicator of future trends. 

• European manufacturing growth accelerated to the fastest pace in more than 10 years in February, a further sign the economy is gathering strength.  A gauge of manufacturing in the euro region rose to 59 last month from 57.3 in January, London-based Markit Economics said today. That's the highest since June 2000. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. 
• British manufacturing also grew strongly, at its fastest pace in nearly two decades.
• The output price index in the 17-nation euro zone hit a record high for the survey, which was conducted February 11-21 before oil prices spiked again last week. 
• The ECB is not expected to exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy it adopted in the depths of the financial crisis when it meets on Thursday but economists expect an interest rate hike by the fourth quarter of this year.
• Raw material costs have risen broadly with oil. Worries abound that a sustained rise in commodity prices, from metals to grains, could reduce demand and so slow economic activity around the world.
  

• It is the latest twist on an old adage: Trade the first day, and stay away.  Some traders have been adopting a new ritual in recent months buying early on the first day of the month and selling by the day's close taking advantage of a peculiar phenomenon that has seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise substantially on the first day of each month. That one-day move often has accounted for much of the Dow's gains for the entire month.
• Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, an economic-consulting firm, is recommending a new trading strategy: "Work during the first trading day of the month, and take the rest of the month off."
• Just why the trend has been so consistent is a mystery. But market watchers like Mr. Yardeni point to the release of nationwide manufacturing data that usually hits on the first day of the month. The manufacturing sector has been one consistent source of positive surprises during the economic recovery.  Others suggest that the first day of the month is when money comes out of paychecks and into 401(k)s, ready to be plowed into the market.  Some also point to window-dressing by investors whose performance is measured monthly. These investors often sell toward the end of the month to lock in any gains, only to jump back in at the beginning of the fresh month.

Prospects for the Economy and Monetary Policy
William Dudley, president and CEO, NY Fed | Feb 28
...we need to keep a close watch on how households and businesses respond to commodity price pressures. The key issue here is whether the rise in commodity prices will unduly push up inflation expectations. Although there have been commodity price cycles in the past, commodity prices have not consistently increased relative to other prices, and indeed have declined in relative terms over the very long term. Historically, if commodity prices rose sharply in a given year, it has been reasonable to expect that these prices would stabilize or fall within a year or two. This property has been important because it has meant that measures of current core inflation, rather than current headline inflation, have been more reliable in predicting future headline inflation rates.
In contrast, over the past decade, commodity prices generally have been on an upward trend....
Nevertheless, there are important mitigating factors that suggest that it would be unwise for the Federal Reserve to over-react to recent commodity price pressures. First, despite the general uptrend, some of the recent commodity price pressures are likely to be temporary. In particular, much of the most recent rise in food prices is due to a sharp drop in production caused by poor weather rather than a surge in consumption. More typical weather and higher prices should generate a rise in production that should push prices somewhat lower. This is certainly what is anticipated by market participants. Second, even if commodity price pressures were to prove persistent, the U.S. situation differs markedly from that of many other countries. Relative to most other major economies, the U.S. inflation rate is lower and the amount of slack much greater.
Moreover, for the United States, commodities represent a relatively small share of the consumption basket. This small share helps to explain why the pass-through of commodity prices into core measures of inflation has been very low in the United States for several decades.

EU Raises Growth Forecast, Expects Inflation to Accelerate
Bloomberg | Mar 1
The European Commission raised its economic-growth forecast for 2011 and said higher oil and commodity prices could keep inflation above the European Central Bank's limit for most of the year.

Commodities in Longest Winning Streak Since '04, Beating Stocks
Bloomberg | Feb 28
Metals, crops and fuel beat stocks, bonds and the dollar for a third straight month, the longest stretch since June 2008, as inflation lifted cotton and cocoa and investors speculated violence in the Middle East and northern Africa will restrain energy supplies. The S&P GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities gained 3.8 percent in February and rose for a sixth consecutive month, the longest streak since 2004, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities in 45 nations returned 3 percent including dividends, while corporate and government bonds rose 0.13 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Global Broad Market Index through Feb. 25. The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against six counterparts such as the euro and yen, fell 1.1 percent.

Commodity Shock
Tim Duy's Fed Watch | Feb 27
The recent surge in oil has been a blow to my rising optimism. With this surge coming on the heels of accelerating US activity, monetary policymakers will offer some concern over the inflationary impact. Recent history, however, suggests the opposite - that unless the tide of rising commodity prices is soon arrested, Fed officials will find themselves faced with the prospect of yet another round of quantitative easing.

Macro US: Commodity bubble? Well, US inflation is at an all-time low!
Trading Floor (Saxo Bank) | Feb 28
While personal spending and income may seem like the two biggies in today's spending report, we encourage you to study the price data - particularly in light of the recent rise in inflation as measured by the consumer price index. Of today's price series the PCE Core Price Index is of particular interest given the attention it gets from members of the Federal Reserve. Unlike the CPI, the core PCE price index does not yet show many signs of inflation. Indeed, the year-on-year rate is 0.7 - the lowest rate ever in its five decade history. To be fair the three month annualised measure has increased... but only to 0.4 percent from an all-time low of 0.3 percent. Keep this index in mind when worrying about U.S. inflation and Fed actions.

Reserve Bank of Australia member warns of commodity bubble
Australian Broadcasting Corp | Feb 28
Reserve Bank board member Professor Warwick McKibbin has warned of a potentially devastating bubble in global commodity prices and property prices in Asia. Professor McKibbin, who is also director of the research school of economics at the Australian National University, says if there is a big downturn in Asia Australia could be hit harder because of Australia's reliance on resource revenue...
"There are two things driving commodity prices. There is the fundamental shift in the demand for commodities coming out of China and India and other countries. That is a positive," he noted.
"The second component is the excess demand which is leading commodity prices, but generalised inflation will follow and that is not a good thing because that is a temporary phenomena for a country like Canada or New Zealand."

Nikkei gains helped by Japan's low inflation risk
Reuters | Mar 1
Japan's Nikkei average clawed back towards 10-month highs to add 1.2 percent on Tuesday as foreign investors piled into Japanese stocks on a lower inflation risk, with more hard-won gains seen in the medium term... "U.S. and European investors have been the main players in the Japanese market. But Asian investors have joined in as Japan is one of the few countries with a low risk of rate hikes," said Shun Maruyama, chief strategist at Credit Suisse. "They are buying Japanese stocks on a process of elimination as Japan has more tolerance for higher oil prices than other Asian countries."

High global crude, commodity rates may add to inflation: Pranab
The Hindu | Mar 1
Grappling with a high rate of price rice, the government today expressed concern that increasing prices of crude and other commodities in global markets could add to inflationary pressure in the country [India]. The possibility of the global commodity inflation adding to domestic inflationary pressures cannot be ruled out, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said at the 83rd Annual General Meeting of industry chamber Ficci here.

Why is the GOP Overhyping Inflation Fears?
David Frum | Feb 28
It's no mystery why Republicans should be more acutely sensitive to inflation than Democrats.
1) Republicans are the preferred party of people who have money. People who have money naturally dread anything that might impair money's value.
2) Republicans are the party of older people. Older people naturally dread inflation, which corrodes fixed incomes and retirement savings.

Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Inflation - Empirical Evidence from the US
Florian Verheyen, University of Duisburg-Essen | Nov 19, 2010
While there was a strong link between commodity prices and CPI inflation in the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s, the relationship has weakened, respectively diminished over time. Today we are unable to detect a reaction of commodity prices to commodity price shocks. Thus, commodity prices might not serve as good indicator variables for monetary policy...
Furthermore, a more restrictive monetary policy in face of rising commodity prices could depress economic activity. This is problematic especially for the Fed as she has to focus on price stability and the support of the economic performance of the American economy. Regarding the actual financial crisis, putting more weight on stimulating the economic activity might be superior to eliminate inflationary pressure. Additionally, higher inflation rates as a consequence of the fairly expansionary monetary policy would come along with a (to some minds) nice side effect of devaluating the governmental debt. Therefore, keeping interest rates low might lead to a reduction of the deficit relative to GDP for two reasons: higher growth rates decrease debt relative to GDP and inflation erodes the real value of the debt.
Nevertheless, central banks should monitor if commodity prices will influence inflation expectations. As food and petrol are goods which are bought quite frequently, a rise in these commodity prices can increase inflation expectations, with the risk of a stronger influence of commodity prices on the CPI in the future. So the hypothesis of a revival is not so far off which points to no quietening of the discussion about commodity prices, monetary policy and inflation.

EUR/USD

The Euro quickly recovered from lows near 1.3720 against the dollar during Monday and rallied to re-challenge resistance levels at 2011 highs above 1.3840 during the US session with the dollar again generally vulnerable.

The US pending home sales data was slightly weaker than expected with a 2.8% decline for January following a revised 3.2% fall the previous month, but this followed a strong run of releases. The Chicago PMI data was stronger than expected with an increase to 71.2 for February from 68.8.

There were mixed comments from Federal Reserve members with Governor Dudley still cautious over the outlook and suggesting that the Fed would look to complete the quantitative easing programme. In contrast, regional President Bullard stated that he would consider ending quantitative easing early. Bullard is not an FOMC voting member this year and markets will be expecting the Fed to maintain a very expansionary policy.

Testimony from Chairman Bernanke will be watched very closely on Tuesday to assess whether there is any evidence of a change in tone by the Fed chief. Given expectations of a generally dovish tone and there is likely to be a much bigger reaction if there is any hint of a change by Bernanke. Without any change, the dollar will still tend to be undermined by adverse trends in short-term interest rate differentials.

There will be further political negotiations ahead of crucial EU summits regarding bailout terms during March. The scale of electoral defeats suffered by governing parties in recent elections will increase speculation over a harder line over further assistance which will tend to unsettle the Euro. The Euro stalled close to 1.3850 and drifted lower, but there was still solid buying support on dips.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Yen

The dollar found support close to 81.60 against the yen during Monday and pushed to a high near 82. Although resistance levels were tough to break down, the US currency rallied again in Asian trading on Tuesday with a peak near 82.20. There was a stabilisation in risk appetite which helped curb safe-haven demand for the Japanese currency.

The domestic economic data did not have a major impact with household spending dropping 1.0% in the year to January while unemployment held steady at 4.9%.

Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa stated that the current yen level was not an additional negative factor for the Japanese economy. The comments will tend to dampen speculation over any additional policy easing by the central bank.

Sterling

A break above resistance near 1.6150 against the dollar on Monday triggered fresh buying support for the UK currency and it advanced to a four-month high just below 1.63 in Asian trading on Tuesday as it resisted pressure for a correction weaker with some evidence of month-end flows into the currency.

A stabilisation in international risk appetite helped underpin the currency and it also gained support from a persistent lack of confidence in the other major currencies.

The UK housing data will be important on Tuesday and the PMI manufacturing survey will also be watched very closely given that survey evidence will be vital for the Bank of England in judging their March interest rate decision. The services-sector data on Thursday will probably have a greater impact, but a strong reading for the industrial data on Tuesday would increase speculation over a near-term Bank of England move and underpin Sterling.

Swiss franc

The Swiss franc lost some defensive support during Monday as risk aversion eased to some extent and the Euro was able to advance to the 1.2850 area. Despite wider vulnerability, the dollar was able to resist fresh record lows against the franc and edged back above the 0.93 level.

Safe-haven considerations will remain very important in the near term and the franc will lose support if the Middle East situation stabilises. Markets are likely to remain generally wary and will tend to be cautious over aggressive positioning which will curb franc selling pressure.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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Australian dollar

The Australian dollar maintained a firm tone during Monday and after a brief dip towards 1.0140, the currency moved to challenge resistance levels near 1.02 against the US dollar.

There was no surprise from the Reserve Bank as interest rates were left on hold at 4.75% following the latest council meeting. The retail sales data was also close to expectations with a 0.4% increase for January.� There was some relief that the PMI manufacturing index moved back above 50, but there was still a general sense of caution surrounding risk appetite which curbed strong buying for the Australian dollar and it retreated back towards 1.0160 in cautious trading.�

April live cattle closed down $1.20 at $112.90 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday, hit a fresh two-week low and scored a big and bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Demand uncertainty amid the Middle East unrest still has the livestock bulls uneasy. The cattle bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but did fade yesterday and need to show fresh power soon. Cattle market bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $115.60. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $110.60. First resistance is seen at $113.50 and then at $114.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $112.45 and then at $112.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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April feeder cattle closed up $0.15 at $131.77 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday but did hit a fresh contact and all-time high of $133.30 early on yesterday. Bulls have the solid overall technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $134.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $129.40. First resistance is seen at $132.00 and then at $132.50. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $131.00 and then at $130.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

April lean hogs closed down $1.40 at $88.80 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday, hit a fresh five-week low and closed at a bearish monthly low close. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Price action recently has produced a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range at higher price levels. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $91.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $87.50. First resistance is seen at $89.00 and then at $89.50. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $88.60 and then at $88.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $1.20 at
$112.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today, hit a fresh two-week low and scored a big and
bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Demand
uncertainty amid the Middle East unrest still has the
livestock bulls uneasy. The cattle bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but did fade today
and need to show fresh power soon. Cattle market bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of $115.60. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at the February low of $110.60. First
resistance is seen at $113.50 and then at $114.00. First
support is seen at today's low of $112.45 and then at
$112.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

April feeder cattle closed up $0.15 at $131.77 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today but did hit a
fresh contact and all-time high of $133.30 early on
today. Bulls have the solid overall technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $134.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at last week's low of $129.40.
First resistance is seen at $132.00 and then at $132.50.
First support is seen at today's low of $131.00 and then
at $130.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

April lean hogs closed down $1.40 at $88.80 today. Prices
closed near the session low today, hit a fresh five-week
low and closed at a bearish monthly low close. Serious
near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Price
action recently has produced a bearish downside
"breakout" from a sideways trading range at higher price
levels. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $91.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $87.50. First resistance
is seen at $89.00 and then at $89.50. First support is
seen at today's low of $88.60 and then at $88.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

Tuesday, March 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Gold prices are trading higher and hit a fresh two-
month high overnight. Prices are closing in on the
all-time high of $1,434.10 an ounce in April
futures, scored in early December. Meantime, silver
futures prices hit a fresh 31-year high of $34.43
in the May contract overnight. Both gold and silver
bulls have solid upside momentum and are looking
for more on the upside in the near term.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,336.20 and then at last month's high of
$1,342.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today
is located at Monday's low of 1,313.00 and then at
1,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
2,371.75 and then at 2,385.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,351.00 and then at Monday's low of 2,334.75. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 12,200 and then more stops just below
support at Monday's low of 12,154. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,300
and then at 12,330. Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 120 4/32 and then at Monday's
high of 120 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 119 20/32 and then at
119 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0
�
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

132 14/32--lifetime high
122 12/32--100-day moving average
120 26/32--second pivot point resistance
120 18/32--previous day's high
120 18/32--Previous Month's high
120 17/32--first pivot point resistance
120 10/32--pivot point
120 9/32--previous day's close
120 2/32--previous day's low
120 1/32--first pivot point support
119 29/32--4-day moving average
119 26/32--second pivot point support
118 25/32--9-day moving average
117 24/32--18-day moving average
115 7/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 118.30.0 and then at Monday's
high of 119.09.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 118.15.0 and then at
118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

126 10/32--lifetime high
121 2/32--100-day moving average
119 14/32--second pivot point resistance
119 9/32--previous month's high
119 9/32--previous day's high
119 7/32--first pivot point resistance
119 3/32--pivot point
119 1/32--previous day's close
118 30/32--previous day's low
118 28/32--first pivot point support
118 26/32--4-day moving average
118 24/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--9-day moving average
117 22/32--18-day moving average
116 3/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early
trading today and hit another fresh four-month low
overnight. Bears have downside technical momentum.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 77.37 and then at 77.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 77.09 and then at 77.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher in early trading today.
In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $99.00 and then at $100.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$97.00 and then at the overnight low of $96.37.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading.
Corn bulls are strong and have upside momentum.
Wheat and soybean bulls need to show more power
soon to suggest uptrends can be continued. I would
not be surprised to see sideways and choppy trading
the next few weeks, heading into the all-important
USDA planting intentions report due out in late
March. My bias is still that the upside is
presently limited in the grain markets.

DJIA Industrial Average

February 28

Open: 12,130.45

High: 12,235.04

Low: 12,130.15

Close: 12,226.34

Change: +95.89 (+0.79%)

RSI: 53

MACD: 87.4

Strategy: The US markets closed with some gains despite some selling pressure in the afternoon to ensure that February also closed with a smart 3% gains in all. The market is showing signs of consolidation before trying to find higher levels in near future.

Commentary

Despite slight selling pressure in the afternoon, stocks in US settled in positive ground Monday. That helped secure the sixth straight monthly gain for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and the third straight monthly gain for the Dow.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 96 points, or 0.8%, on Monday while the S&P 500 rose 3 points, or 0.2% and the Nasdaq closed flat for the day. Overall, all three major indexes were up nearly 3% during the month.

The Dow constituents which advanced Monday handsomely were headed by Johnson & Johnson 3.02%, Verizon 2.64%, Hewlett Packard 2.23% and 3M 2.19%.

However, the index components which closed lower included Intel Corp. -1.78%, Coca Cola -0.61%, Boeing -0.40% and Cisco -0.43%.

Out of the 30 Dow components, 25 stocks closed with some advances and the remaining 5 closed a little lower.

The sectors to remain in focus included Telecom (+1.5%), Utilities (+1.0%), Materials (+1.0%), Health Care (+0.9%), Energy (+0.6%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%). None of the sectors retraced in the day.

A report the economic indicator released during the day suggested that personal incomes climbed 1% in January. The same got investors in an upbeat mood early in the day, even though most of that increase was due to a 2% payroll tax holiday. The same, however, faded out later in the day following some profit booking.

Elsewhere, a report on Chicago-area manufacturing showing that sector accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in February. The Chicago PMI rose to 71.2 from 68.8 in January. This was higher than economists’ expectations.

Meanwhile, pending home sales fell 2.8% for the past month which was better than the deeper 3.2% fall anticipated by economists.

In company news, Amazon shares fell more than 2.2% after UBS downgraded its stock to "neutral."

Shares of Overstock.com soared 9%, after the retailer announced earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.

3M gained 2.2% on reports that the comnpany is likely to launch a new product that is likely to gain popularity in the market.

The US $ fell against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen as the Dollar Index closed on a weak footing.

Oil for April delivery retraced nominally to $96.97 per barrel

Gold futures for April delivery inched up to $1409.90 an ounce.

The Day Ahead

Tuesday

ISM Mfg Index for Feb

Motor Vehicles sales for Feb

The time of truth for Amgen (AMGN) in the aftermath of its vertical decline from the Jan 25 high at 58.19 to its Feb 24 low at 50.61.

insert.a.chart.AMGN

Let's notice that on the enclosed weekly chart that last week's violation of a near two-year support line at 52.60 followed-through to the downside to 50.61 last Thursday, but then AMGN reversed powerfully to the upside -- perhaps in reaction to positive news about its phase 3 study on cancer drug XGEVA.

From a technical perspective, the sharp recover back to 52.67 earlier today leaves behind a potential weekly Bear Trap within a huge sideways, contracting pattern off of the high from September 2008 at 66.51. All of the price action since that time represents a digestion period of the powerful upleg from the March 2008 low at 39.16 to 66.51, which should be followed by another powerful recovery upleg when the digestion period is complete.

As long as the 50.60/50 area contains any forthcoming weakness, AMGN is ready for a powerful upside continuation move.

Some Potential Swing Trading Opportunities for today...

These stocks will be monitored by you every day!!! Follow the master plan and you will be on your way to learn to trade stocks like a PRO... enjoy...

The results are generated by my stock screener. Only the first 5 results are displayed here for every scan.

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SECRETS TO GREAT RESULTS:
CONFIDENCE - PATIENCE- FOCUS - DISCIPLINE

Long Swings

Window

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 7) and (adx(10) > 30) and (pdi(10) > mdi(10)) and (high() < sma(close,5))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

AGL	NYSE	AGL Resources Inc.	2/25/2011
AWK	NYSE	American Water Works Company, Inc.	2/25/2011
AYR	NYSE	Aircastle Limited	2/25/2011
BIG	NYSE	Big Lots, Inc.	2/24/2011
BJ	NYSE	BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc.	2/24/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

Swings

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (force_index(3) <= 0) and (force_index(13) >= 0) and (adx(10) > 30) and (high() < high()[-1]) and (high()[-1] < high()[-2]) and (close() > sma(close,10)) and (close() > sma(close,20))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

BHI	NYSE	Baker Hughes Inc.	2/24/2011
HRL	NYSE	Hormel Foods Corporation	2/24/2011
K	NYSE	Kellogg Company	2/25/2011
MO	NYSE	Altria Group, Inc.	2/24/2011
RAI	NYSE	Reynolds American, Inc.	2/25/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

VXX

NYSEARCA

iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM ETN

2/25/2011

1-2-3-4

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and ((adx(10) + adx(20))/2 > 30) and (pdi(10)+pdi(20) > mdi(10) + mdi(20)) and (low() < low()[-1]) and (low()[-1] < low()[-2]) and (high() < high()[-1]) and (high()[-1] < high()[-2])

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

BRO	NYSE	Brown & Brown Insurance	2/24/2011
BXP	NYSE	Boston Properties, Inc.	2/24/2011
CLX	NYSE	Clorox Corporation	2/25/2011
COV	NYSE	Covidien plc	2/24/2011
DD	NYSE	E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont)	2/24/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

BGZ

NYSEARCA

Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares

2/28/2011

Cross

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)and(close() > 12)and(sma(close,5)>sma(close,15))and(close() < sma(close,5))and(close() > sma(close,15))and(high() < high()[-1])and(close() > open())

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

AGL	NYSE	AGL Resources Inc.	2/25/2011
AIZ	NYSE	Assurant, Inc.	2/25/2011
AWK	NYSE	American Water Works Company, Inc.	2/25/2011
BID	NYSE	Sotheby's	2/24/2011
BWA	NYSE	BorgWarner Inc.	2/25/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

AMJ

NYSEARCA

JPMorgan Chase & Co

2/25/2011

Triangle

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (close() > sma(close,20)) and (high()[-2] > high()[-1]) and (high()[-2] > high()) and (low()[-2] < low()[-1]) and (low()[-2] < low()) and (high()[-1] > high()) and (low()[-1] < low())

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

CDE	NYSE	Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation	2/24/2011
SKS	NYSE	Saks Incorporated	2/25/2011
VFC	NYSE	VF Corporation	2/24/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

Reverse

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)and(close() > 12)and(high()[-2] > high()[-1])and(high()[-1] > high())and(low()[-2] > low()[-1])and(low()[-1] > low())and(close()[-2] <= open()[-2])and(close()[-1] <= open()[-1])and(close() >= open())and(volume() > 1.5 * sma(volume,20))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

CVG	NYSE	Convergys Corporation	2/24/2011
EME	NYSE	EMCOR Group, Inc.	2/24/2011
ETN	NYSE	Eaton Corporation	2/24/2011
FCN	NYSE	FTI Consulting, Inc.	2/25/2011
FLS	NYSE	Flowserve Corporation	2/24/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

Breakouts

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) > 200000)and(close() > 7)and(high() >= max(high,40))and(high()[-1] >= max(high,40)[-1])and(volume() > 1.5 * sma(volume,20))and(close() > open())and(volume()[-1] < sma(volume,20))and( (close() - low()) >= (0.75 *(high() - low())) )

Results for NASDAQ

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000) and (close() > 12) and (close()[-1] - low()[-1] <= 0.1 *(high()[-1] - low()[-1])) and (close() - low() >= 0.95 *(high() - low())) and (close() > sma(close,15)) and (close() > sma(close,50))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

AGL	NYSE	AGL Resources Inc.	2/25/2011
CMO	NYSE	Capstead Mortgage Corporation	2/25/2011
MFE	NYSE	McAfee, Inc.	2/25/2011
NOV	NYSE	National Oilwell Varco, Inc.	2/25/2011
PBRA	NYSE	Petrobras - Petrleo Brasileiro S.A.	2/25/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

GDX

NYSEARCA

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF

2/25/2011

Reversals

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 200000) and (close() > 12) and (low() <= min(low,40)[-1]) and (volume() > 2*sma(volume,20)) and (close() > open())

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

EME	NYSE	EMCOR Group, Inc.	2/24/2011
FCN	NYSE	FTI Consulting, Inc.	2/25/2011
LTM	NYSE	Life Time Fitness, Inc.	2/24/2011
MGA	NYSE	Magna International Inc.	2/24/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

Short Swings

Cross

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000) and (close() > 12) and (sma(close,5) sma(close,5)) and (close() < sma(close,15)) and (low() > low()[-1]) and (close() < open())

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

APH	NYSE	Amphenol Corporation	2/25/2011
BBL	NYSE	BHP Billiton plc	2/28/2011
BDX	NYSE	Becton, Dickinson and Company	2/28/2011
BEN	NYSE	Franklin Resources Inc.	2/28/2011
BGC	NYSE	General Cable Corporation	2/28/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

1-2-3-4

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and ((adx(10) + adx(20))/2 > 30) and (pdi(10) + pdi(20) < mdi(10) + mdi(20)) and (low() > low()[-1]) and (low()[-1] > low()[-2]) and (high() > high()[-1]) and (high()[-1] > high()[-2])

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

CY	NYSE	Cypress Semiconductor Corporation	2/25/2011
CYS	NYSE	Cypress Sharpridge Investments, Inc.	2/25/2011
RJF	NYSE	Raymond James Financial Inc.	2/25/2011
SKM	NYSE	SK Telecom Co., Ltd.	2/24/2011
WIN	NYSE	Windstream Corporation	2/25/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

Swings

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (force_index(3) >= 0) and (force_index(13) <= 0) and (adx(10) > 30) and (low() > low()[-1]) and (low()[-1] > low()[-2]) and (close() < sma(close,10)) and (close() < sma(close,20))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

AXL	NYSE	American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.	2/25/2011
BEN	NYSE	Franklin Resources Inc.	2/28/2011
BLL	NYSE	Ball Corporation	2/28/2011
BYI	NYSE	Bally Technologies, Inc.	2/28/2011
TAM	NYSE	TAM S.A.	2/25/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

EWT

NYSEARCA

iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund

2/25/2011

Window

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 7) and (adx(10) > 30) and (pdi(10) < mdi(10)) and (low() > sma(close,5))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

CY	NYSE	Cypress Semiconductor Corporation	2/25/2011
CYS	NYSE	Cypress Sharpridge Investments, Inc.	2/25/2011
TCK	NYSE	Teck Resources Limited	2/25/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

EWS

NYSEARCA

iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund

2/25/2011

Revival

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (close()[-1] - low()[-1] >= 0.9 *(high()[-1] - low()[-1])) and (close() - low() <= 0.1*(high()-low())) and (close() < sma(close,15)) and (close() < sma(close,50))

Results for NASDAQ

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (high()[-2] < high()[-1]) and (high()[-1] < high()) and (low()[-2] < low()[-1]) and (low()[-1] < low()) and (close()[-2] >= open()[-2]) and (close()[-1] >= open()[-1]) and (close() <= open()) and (volume() > 1.5*sma(volume,20))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

ERF	NYSE	Enerplus Resources Fund	2/24/2011
PEG	NYSE	Public Service Enterprise Group Inc.	2/24/2011

Results for AMEX

SDS	AMEX	ProShares UltraShort S&P500	2/24/2011
SH	AMEX	ProShares Short S&P500	2/24/2011

Results for NYSEARCA

Triangle

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (close() < sma(close,20)) and (high()[-2] > high()[-1]) and (high()[-2] > high()) and (low()[-2] < low()[-1]) and (low()[-2] < low()) and (high()[-1] > high()) and (low()[-1] < low())

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

AXP	NYSE	American Express Company	2/25/2011
FLR	NYSE	Fluor Corporation	2/25/2011
FST	NYSE	Forest Oil Corporation	2/24/2011
NUE	NYSE	Nucor Corporation	2/25/2011
SBH	NYSE	Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.	2/25/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

Breakdowns

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 200000) and (close() > 7) and (low() <= min(low,40)) and (low()[-1] <= min(low,40)[-1]) and (volume() > 2*sma(volume,20)) and (close() < open()) and (volume()[-1] < sma(volume,20)) and (close()-low() <= 0.25*(high()-low()))

Results for NASDAQ

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 200000) and (close() > 12) and (high() >= max(high,40)[-1]) and (volume() > 2*sma(volume,20)) and (close() < open())

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

CNQ	NYSE	Canadian Natural Resources, Ltd.	2/24/2011
COG	NYSE	Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation	2/24/2011
LAD	NYSE	Lithia Motors, Inc.	2/24/2011
MTZ	NYSE	MasTec, Inc.	2/24/2011
OCLR	NYSE	Oclaro Inc	2/25/2011

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA