Wednesday, April 06, 2011
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Wednesday
Wednesday, April 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold futures hit a fresh all-time record high overnight, while silver hit a new 31-year high. The precious metals are rallying in part due to oncerns regarding heightened inflation. The fact the precious metals are rallying strongly bodes well for other commodity market bulls. However, inflation is the enemy of stock and bond market bulls.--Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh six-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at February high of 1,342.80 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,326.20 and then at 1,314.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,346.75 and then at last week's high of 2,358.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,330.00 and then at this week's low of 2,318.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh nearly three-year high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,330 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,295. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,400 and then at 12,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 1/32 and then at 120 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 119 21/32 and then at last week's low of 119 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds
132 14/32--lifetime high
123 22/32--Previous Month's high
121 12/32--second pivot point resistance
120 28/32--previous day's high
120 27/32--18-day moving average
120 20/32--first pivot point resistance
120 8/32--9-day moving average
120 7/32--4-day moving average
120 5/32--100-day moving average
120 5/32--pivot point
119 29/32--previous day's close
119 21/32--previous day's low
119 13/32--first pivot point support
118 30/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday's high of 119.00.0 and then at this week's high of 119.14.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.21.0 and then at last week's low of 118.09.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
JUNE U.S. T-Notes
126 10/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--previous month's high
119 23/32--18-day moving average
119 22/32--second pivot point resistance
119 18/32--100-day moving average
119 13/32--previous day's high
119 7/32--first pivot point resistance
119 2/32--9-day moving average
119 --4-day moving average
118 30/32--pivot point
118 24/32--previous day's close
118 21/32--previous day's low
118 15/32--first pivot point support
118 6/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower higher in early trading, with prices hovering near the recent contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.12 and then at Tuesday's high of 76.40. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.77 and then at the contract low of 75.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are trading near steady in early trading today. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week's two-year high of $108.78 and then at $109.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.72 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was weaker while wheat was near steady and soybeans were firmer. Corn is now technically overbought and due for a downside correction. Weather in the U.S. Midwest is a major factor in the grain markets. At present, wet weather forecasts for the Corn Belt are bullish for corn and dry weather in the Plains is bullish for wheat. Traders are awaiting USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Friday morning. That report is again expected to be bullish for the grains.
