Tuesday, April 05, 2011
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday
Tuesday, April 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Commodity markets are starting out Tuesday under some selling pressure as the U.S. dollar index is seeing a tepid short-covering bounce. My bias is that there is not strong downside price pressure left in the dollar index and that there is not much more upside left in the crude oil market, barring a fresh geopolitical shock to the market place.--Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 1,336.20 and then at the February high of 1,342.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,320.00 and then at 1,314.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,343.00 and then at 2,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,318.25 and then at 2,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,300 and then more stops just below support at 12,280. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday's high of 12,345 and then at the February high of 12,380. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 121 even and then at 121 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120 5/32 and then at 120 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
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JUNE U.S. T-Bonds
132 14/32--lifetime high
123 22/32--Previous Month's high
121 8/32--second pivot point resistance
120 27/32--18-day moving average
120 27/32--previous day's high
120 27/32--first pivot point resistance
120 13/32--pivot point
120 13/32--9-day moving average
120 13/32--previous day's close
120 9/32--4-day moving average
120 6/32--100-day moving average
120 --previous day's low
120 --first pivot point support
119 18/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday's high of 119.14.5 and then at 119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.00.0 and then at Monday's low of 118.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
JUNE U.S. T-Notes
126 10/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--previous month's high
119 25/32--18-day moving average
119 24/32--second pivot point resistance
119 20/32--100-day moving average
119 15/32--first pivot point resistance
119 14/32--previous day's high
119 7/32--9-day moving average
119 7/32--previous day's close
119 6/32--pivot point
119 3/32--4-day moving average
118 29/32--first pivot point support
118 28/32--previous day's low
118 20/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.50 and then at 76.70. Shorter-term support is seen at 76.00 and then at last week's low of 75.88. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Monday's two-year high of $108.78 and then at $109.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.50 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to lower in overnight trading. Some profit taking is seen in corn, while soybean bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Weather in the U.S. Midwest is a major factor in the grain markets. At present, wet weather in the Corn Belt is bullish for corn and dry weather in the Plains is bullish for wheat. Traders are awaiting USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Friday morning. That report is again expected to be bullish for the grains.
