Tuesday, April 05, 2011
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday
Monday, April 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Crude oil prices hit a fresh two-year high overnight and are trading above $108 a barrel. The climbing price of crude oil is also pulling other commodity markets higher. If crude oil prices continue to climb, look for most other commodity markets to do the same. One early clue that the general rally in the commodity markets may be ending would be if the U.S. dollar index started to sustain a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.--Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 1,336.20 and then at the February high of 1,342.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,324.60 and then at 1,314.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Friday's high of 2,358.00 and then at 2,370.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,336.25 and then at 2,320.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh nearly three-year high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,300 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 12,280. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,400 and then at 12,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 16/32 and then at 121 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 24/32 and then at Friday's low of 119 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds
132 14/32--lifetime high
123 22/32--Previous Month's high
121 7/32--second pivot point resistance
120 26/32--first pivot point resistance
120 25/32--18-day moving average
120 17/32--9-day moving average
120 16/32--previous day's high
120 12/32--previous day's close
120 8/32--100-day moving average
120 4/32--4-day moving average
120 2/32--pivot point
119 21/32--first pivot point support
119 11/32--previous day's low
118 29/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.03.5 and then at last week's high of 119.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118.19.0 andthen at 118.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
JUNE U.S. T-Notes
126 10/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--previous month's high
119 24/32--18-day moving average
119 22/32--100-day moving average
119 16/32--second pivot point resistance
119 10/32--9-day moving average
119 8/32--first pivot point resistance
119 1/32--previous day's high
118 31/32--4-day moving average
118 31/32--previous day's close
118 24/32--pivot point
118 16/32--first pivot point support
118 9/32--previous day's low
118 --second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.23 and then at 76.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.93 and then at last week's low of 75.88. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early trading today and hit a fresh two-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $108.78 and then at $109.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $108.00 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, led by corn. May corn scored a fresh contract high overnight. Wheat and soybean futures prices were firmer and following the lead of corn. Traders continue to digest last week's bullish USDA reports. Grain market traders will still keep an eye on the key "outside markets"--the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. Weather in the U.S. Midwest will become a major factor in the grain markets and will take center stage after the USDA report is digested by traders.
