Friday, April 01, 2011

 

Grain Market Analysis

By Jim Wyckoff

May corn futures closed down 10 cents at $6.61 3/4 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and saw position evening ahead of Thursday morning's USDA report. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. Prices are still in the middle of a wide trading range marked by the contract high of $7.44 1/4 and by the March low of $6.08. How the corn market closes on Friday will be a very good clue on the next near-term trend in prices. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above psychological resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance for May corn is seen at yesterday's high of $6.75 and then at $6.80. First support is seen this week's low of $6.61 1/4 and then at $6.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

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May soybeans closed up 10 1/2 cents at $13.72 a bushel yesterday. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh three-week high close yesterday. Traders are awaiting the key USDA planting intentions report on Thursday morning. Look for more volatile trading Thursday and Friday, in the wake of the report. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $13.85 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $13.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $13.74 and then at $13.80. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $13.55 3/4 and then at this week's low of $13.41.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May soybean meal closed up $1.90 at $360.50 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $365.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $348.30. First resistance comes in at yesterday's high of $361.50 and then at $365.00. First support is seen at $357.50 and then at yesterday's low of $355.80.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

May bean oil closed up 30 points at 57.32 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and hit a fresh three-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum yesterday. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 55.75 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 57.47 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 56.89 cents and then at 56.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 10 cents at $7.27 1/4 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday. Trading has turned choppy. Look for the wheat market to be a follower of corn and soybeans for the next several weeks. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $7.53 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $7.42 and then at $7.50. First support lies at this week's low of $7.21 and then at $7.10.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 5 cents at $8.62 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday in quieter trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance at $9.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $8.25. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $8.68 1/2 and then at $8.75. First support is seen at $8.51 3/4 and then at this week's low of $8.46.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

May oats closed down 1 1/2 cents at $3.49 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field at present. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at the March low of $3.13 1/2. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.70. First support lies at yesterday's low of $3.44 1/4 and then at $3.40. First resistance is seen at $3.53 and then at this week's high of $3.55 1/4.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

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