Free Swing Trading and Day Trading Picks & Education

Tuesday, February 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

NOTE: I had internet problems this morning. Thus,
the later report, which was written by my friend
and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen. Ken's style
is a bit different than mine, but I think you'll
enjoy and benefit from it, too.--Jim

The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short
covering overnight as it consolidates some of last
Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends last Friday's
decline, the 25% retracement level of the
August-January rally crossing at 2197.43 is the
next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's
high crossing at 2334.50 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 2292.80.
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing
at 2334.50. First support is Monday's low crossing
at 2248.50. Second support is the 25% retracement
level of the August-January rally crossing at
2197.43. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 14.25 pts. at
2294.25 as of 5:45 AM CST. Overnight action sets
the stage for a higher opening by March
NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this
morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher due to short
covering overnight as it consolidates some of last
Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends last Friday's
decline, the August-November uptrend line crossing
near 1261.90 is the next downside target. First
resistance is last Friday's high crossing at
1299.40. Second resistance is the July 2008 high
crossing at 1313.30. First support is Monday's low
crossing at 1262.60. Second support is the August-
November uptrend line crossing near 1261.90.
The March S&P 500 Index was up 6.50 pts. at 1288.90
as of 5:47 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage
for a higher opening by the March S&P 500
index when the day session begins later this
morning.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends
the trading range of the past seven weeks.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. March needs to close
above the reaction high crossing at 122-07 or below
December's low crossing at 118-21 to confirm a
breakout of the aforementioned trading range and
point the direction of the next trending move.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
122-07. Second resistance is the 25% retracement
level of the October-December decline crossing at
121-17. First support is the reaction low crossing
at 119-06. Second support is December's low
crossing at 118-21.

ENERGY MARKETS

March crude oil was lower overnight as it
consolidates some of the rally off last Friday's
low. However, stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the
rally off last Friday's low, January's high
crossing at 93.46 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.05
would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is Monday's high crossing at 92.84.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at
93.46. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 89.05. Second support is the 38%
retracement level of the May-January rally crossing
at 85.51.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends
the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the
RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this month's
decline, November's low crossing at 76.18 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 79.25 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 78.20. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 79.25. First support is
the overnight low crossing at 77.41. Second support
is November's low crossing at 76.16.

GRAINS

March corn was fractionally lower overnight due to
light profit taking while at the same time
extending the trading range of the past three
weeks. The high-range close overnight sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day
session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought, diverging but are neutral signaling
that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.37
would signal that a short-term top has been posted
while opening the door for a test of the reaction
low crossing at 5.95. If March renews this winter's
rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-
decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing
at 7.19 1/4 is the next upside target. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.67.
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of
the 2008-decline on the weekly continuation chart
crossing at 7.19 1/4. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 6.37. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 5.95.

March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates
some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when the
day session begins trading later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting
that a double top with last August's high might be
forming. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 8.05 1/2 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March extends
the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level
of the 2008-2010-decline crossing at 8.80 3/4 is
the next upside target. First resistance is
August's high crossing at 8.64 1/2. Second
resistance is the 50% retracement level of
the 2008-2010-decline crossing at 8.80 3/4. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
8.30 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 8.05 1/2.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans were fractionally higher overnight
as it extends the trading range of the past five
weeks. The high-range overnight close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day
session begins later this morning. Stochastics and
the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March
renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 14.34 1/2 is the next upside target.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 13.55 1/4
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted
while opening the door for a larger-degree decline
to mark a mid-winter low, which is due during
February. First resistance is January's high
crossing at 14.32 1/2. Second resistance is monthly
resistance crossing at 14.34 1/2. First support is
last Tuesday's low crossing at 13.64 1/4. Second
support is the reaction low crossing near 13.55
1/4.