Thursday, July 01, 2010
Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Have and Angle
It had to happen at some point that after a sharp drop bulls would have something to offer. Thursday's close looks like such an opportunity.
Today's bullish hammer in the S&P was accompanied by some higher volume trading which bodes well for Friday.
($SPX)
via StockCharts.com
The Nasdaq finished on trendline support although it was a bumpy ride intraday. Technicals remain weak.
AAAAAAAAC Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ): "
via StockCharts.com
"The Russell 2000 similarly finished with a bullish hammer.
AAAAAAAAD Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT)
via StockCharts.com
Even the Nasdaq 100 looks tempting
($NDX)

via StockCharts.com
Bulls have a simple task; buy break of today's highs with a stop below lows. Resistance starts at May-June support then 20-day MAs. Long term, the bullish picture continues to deteriorate.
MrSwing Lite - Swing Trading Picks - 07-02-2010
Some Potential Swing Trading Opportunities for today...
These stocks will be monitored by you every day!!! Follow the master plan and you will be on your way to learn to trade stocks like a PRO... enjoy...
The results are generated by my stock screener. Only the first 5 results are displayed here for every scan.
For full results, subscribe now to StockScanPRO for 30 days FREE, then only pay $9.99 a month!.
SECRETS TO GREAT RESULTS:
CONFIDENCE - PATIENCE-
FOCUS - DISCIPLINE
Long Swings
Window
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
>= 500000)
and
(close() > 7)
and
(adx(10) > 30)
and
(pdi(10) > mdi(10))
and
(high() < sma(close,5))
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
2 results for NYSE:
| BRKB |
NYSE | Berkshire Hathaway inc. | 7/1/2010 |
| MMC |
NYSE | Marsh & Mclennan Companies Inc. | 7/1/2010 |
Results for AMEX
2 results for AMEX:
| BIL |
AMEX | SPDR Lehman 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 7/1/2010 |
| BSV |
AMEX | Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF | 7/1/2010 |
Results for NYSEARCA
0 results for NYSEARCA:
Swings
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
>= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(force_index(3) <= 0)
and
(force_index(13) >= 0)
and
(adx(10) > 30)
and
(high() < high()[-1])
and
(high()[-1] < high()[-2])
and
(close() > sma(close,10))
and
(close() > sma(close,20))
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
0 results for NYSE:
Results for AMEX
0 results for AMEX:
Results for NYSEARCA
0 results for NYSEARCA:
1-2-3-4
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
>= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
((adx(10) + adx(20))/2 > 30)
and
(pdi(10)+pdi(20) > mdi(10) + mdi(20))
and
(low() < low()[-1])
and
(low()[-1] < low()[-2])
and
(high() < high()[-1])
and
(high()[-1] < high()[-2])
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
1 results for NYSE:
| MMC |
NYSE | Marsh & Mclennan Companies Inc. | 7/1/2010 |
Results for AMEX
0 results for AMEX:
Results for NYSEARCA
0 results for NYSEARCA:
Cross
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)and(close()
> 12)and(sma(close,5)>sma(close,15))and(close() <
sma(close,5))and(close() > sma(close,15))and(high() <
high()[-1])and(close() > open())
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
Displaying 5 results of 6 for NYSE:
| AZO |
NYSE | AutoZone, Inc | 7/1/2010 |
| CIG |
NYSE | Companhia Energtica de Minas Gerais - CEMIG | 7/1/2010 |
| HSP |
NYSE | Hospira, Inc. | 7/1/2010 |
| MTB |
NYSE | M&T Bank Corporation | 7/1/2010 |
| SLH |
NYSE | Solera Holdings, Inc. | 7/1/2010 |
Results for AMEX
0 results for AMEX:
Results for NYSEARCA
1 results for NYSEARCA:
| EPI |
NYSEARCA | WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF | 7/1/2010 |
Triangle
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
>= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(close() > sma(close,20))
and
(high()[-2] > high()[-1])
and
(high()[-2] > high())
and
(low()[-2] < low()[-1])
and
(low()[-2] < low())
and
(high()[-1] > high())
and
(low()[-1] < low())
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
0 results for NYSE:
Results for AMEX
0 results for AMEX:
Results for NYSEARCA
0 results for NYSEARCA:
Reverse
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)and(close()
> 12)and(high()[-2] > high()[-1])and(high()[-1] >
high())and(low()[-2] > low()[-1])and(low()[-1] >
low())and(close()[-2] <= open()[-2])and(close()[-1] <=
open()[-1])and(close() >= open())and(volume() > 1.5 *
sma(volume,20))
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
Displaying 5 results of 15 for NYSE:
| APD |
NYSE | Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | 7/1/2010 |
| BBT |
NYSE | BB&T Corporation | 7/1/2010 |
| CEG |
NYSE | Constellation Energy Group Inc. | 7/1/2010 |
| DIS |
NYSE | The Walt Disney Company | 7/1/2010 |
| G |
NYSE | Genpact Limited | 7/1/2010 |
Results for AMEX
2 results for AMEX:
| JNK |
AMEX | SPDR Lehman High Yield Bond ETF | 7/1/2010 |
| VEA |
AMEX | Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF | 7/1/2010 |
Results for NYSEARCA
2 results for NYSEARCA:
| ICF |
NYSEARCA | iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Major | 7/1/2010 |
| IYZ |
NYSEARCA | iShares Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Sector Index Fund | 7/1/2010 |
Breakouts
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
> 200000)and(close() > 7)and(high() >=
max(high,40))and(high()[-1] >= max(high,40)[-1])and(volume() > 1.5
* sma(volume,20))and(close() > open())and(volume()[-1] <
sma(volume,20))and( (close() - low()) >= (0.75 *(high() - low())) )
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
0 results for NYSE:
Results for AMEX
0 results for AMEX:
Results for NYSEARCA
0 results for NYSEARCA:
Revival
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)
and
(close()
> 12)
and
(close()[-1] - low()[-1] <= 0.1 *(high()[-1] - low()[-1]))
and
(close() - low() >= 0.95 *(high() - low()))
and
(close() > sma(close,15))
and
(close() > sma(close,50))
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
0 results for NYSE:
Results for AMEX
0 results for AMEX:
Results for NYSEARCA
0 results for NYSEARCA:
Reversals
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
>= 200000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(low() <= min(low,40)[-1])
and
(volume() > 2*sma(volume,20))
and
(close() > open())
Results for NASDAQ
0 results for NASDAQ:
Results for NYSE
4 results for NYSE:
| BRS |
NYSE | Bristow Group Inc. | 7/1/2010 |
| CCC |
NYSE | Calgon Carbon Corporation | 7/1/2010 |
| FPRS |
NYSE | Ford Motor Company Capital Trust II | 7/1/2010 |
| MDP |
NYSE | Meredith Corporation | 7/1/2010 |
Results for AMEX
0 results for AMEX:
Results for NYSEARCA
1 results for NYSEARCA:
| FDN |
NYSEARCA | First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund | 7/1/2010 |
Short Swings
Cross
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(sma(close,5)
Yen
The Case for an Upside Move
Ok, I putting on my CNBC pundit hat and trying to act all cheery. Every so often I want to remember what it feels like to be a long only fund manager with 2% cash, who has to cheerlead the market.
Look I run a 3 star mutual fund with -2% annualized over 5 years [Kool Aid Growth Fund (KOOLX)]... I'm killing the S&P 500 by over 0.2% per annum; plus I have appeared on CNBC repeating the same song and dance (broken down to "keep sending me money, over the long run the stock market always goes up") over 83 times in the past 3 years. (please do not research what I said the previous 82 times, thank you) I demand you to listen to my words of wisdom.
A month ago we sat here, all cheery because Biden and Obama promised us a "super duper" employment report. Like lemmings we believed them (would a politician lie to us?) (would a politician not have the sophistication to know we would see through 410K census jobs?). We were disappointed. All these fast money types sold... something about "technical analysis" or "charts" (I call it voodoo)... I don't understand it. I just buy quality stocks ... at least 450 of them so I can mimic the market and keep accepting your 401k contributions by finishing +/- 1% of the S&P 500 over 10 years.
Here we are a month later no one expects anything good from the employment report. Which probably is accurate. Estimates call for about 100K jobs in the private sector minus 200K lost census jobs, for net -100K. But what if the census holds onto their people for an extra few weeks? And we had 200K birth death model jobs? Upside surprise baby!
Aside from that, the market is "cheap" ....especially on 2018 earnings. Maybe even 2011 earnings based on my trusty dealing with the folk over at Goldman, Morgan, and JPM. Who only look out for my best interest. And yours.
I hear fears about "debt" or other such stuff. Look, in Ben Bernanke I trust. If he says green shoots, I say green shoots. He has never led us astray yet and his track record is beyond impeccable. Said so right in that Time story (Man of the Year baby).
I hear all this stuff about "1040" being important. All I know about 10:40 is its usually when I take the first break of the day (who can look at a computer screen for more than 60 minutes straight?), or maybe go hit some golf balls out on the office lawn.
Now go buy stock, since expectations are low and we're ready for the 2nd half 2010 rally. Or better yet consider buying KOOLX. As a paid professional I am better off losing you -2% annum than you are.
Ok...ok maybe not a 2nd half 2010 rally, I'd settle for a +2% move at this moment as these past 2 weeks have been cruel and unusual. Mostly I want these masses of redemptions coming through my door by the hour to stop.
Bernanke, please do an emergency rate cut! The bears are ruining America!!
What's that? Oh... nevermind. Used all those bullets to smash bears the past 3 years. Well in that case... QE 2.0 please? Someone, anyone - save me from this reality. Attach me back to the Matrix.
Listen. There are a lot of words I've just said. What I really meant to say is not only am I not panicked but I require you to change your 2010 IRA allocation to Kool Aid Fund. Quickly.
Sincerely,
Talking My Book, Long & Strong (always!), Shorting is for Losers at Hedge Funds (and unAmerican)
(on a serious note, is anyone bullish on the jobs number tomorrow? does anyone expect it to be good? No. So when it comes in blah will we sell off on news we already know? Hard to imagine but anything is possible)
July 1 A Day the Intermarket Relationships Fell Apart Temporarily
At least, hopefully temporarily.
In a quick update, I wanted to show the fall-out of the mini-crashes that rocked the world of inter-market analysis on July 1, 2010. What a way to start the official second half of the year.
(Click for full-size image)
Earlier this morning, I reported on the Negative Divergences and Top Heavy Chart… and by the close, the precious metal collapsed, breaking all short-term support levels I mentioned were likely targets.
Given the daily chart and structure of gold �" namely the lengthy negative divergences �" today’s sell-off was no surprise, but the power of the sell-off was surprising.
Ok �" nothing wrong with that, but when gold falls, one would expect the US Dollar Index to Rally and the Euro/USD (EURUSD) to fall as well �" as the Euro often tracks well with commodities.
Exactly the opposite happened.
The EURUSD rallied very sharply �" crashing upwards �" and the Dollar Index crashed downwards. Strange. Unusual.
With all the headlines of global economic slowdown and the fears from that, we would expect oil prices to fall. They did �" so that was no surprise. The vicious plunge from the $75 level to the $71 level in 5 hours was surprising.
And the S&P 500? It didn’t know which way to turn.
It continued its sell-off from yesterday’s break of the important 1,040 level, supported at 1,010 ( I showed the Fibonacci Confluence here), and then rallied into the close.
The S&P was the only market, excluding bonds (which traded opposite the S&P �" rallying in the morning and then falling into the close) to shift directions mid-day.
Let’s take some time to assess the cross-market damage and temporarily broken relationships to see what went wrong, where, and when we’re likely to get back on track.
Luckily, we have a holiday weekend coming up to do so.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Hidden SP500 Fibonacci Confluence Last Hope for Bulls
We all were watching the 1,040 level on the S&P 500, and when it broke, traders reacted as expected: Bears pounced and Bulls ran for the exits.
If you’re asking yourself why we bounced so hard this morning, then you didn’t see the ‘hidden’ defense price via a large-scale Fibonacci Confluence.
There’s never a guarantee any Fibonacci level will hold when price tests it, but for now, this level held so we need to focus on it as the key level to watch.
A quick glance at the chart shows two very important Fibonacci Retracemnents converge at the 1,010 level. That’s where we bounced strongly off today’s lows, and where the bulls will stage their last chance of a comeback after losing the “battle” of 1,040.
The Blue lines represent the large-scale Fibonacci Retracement Grid from the 2007 top to the 2009 bottom, with the market peaking in April 2010 8 points shy of the 61.8% retracement at 1,228.
You would reference these levels on the way UP, but they still exist as price trails to the downside.
As price trails lower, you need to draw a new Fibonacci reference grid, starting with the March 2009 and stretch to the April 2010 high �" this is the Green Grid on the chart.
We can see that the 38.2% retracement rests at 1,008, and today’s low so far was 1,010.
This very important short-term level converges with the 38.2% �" strangely enough �" retracement of the entire bear market grid at 1,014.
Bulls defended this level in today’s trading action, so it has now become a known reference level of potential support.
Just like 1,040, if bulls cannot hold support here at the lesser known 1,010 level, then we will look lower to target the 50% line at 943 or eventually the 61.8% line at 876 which happens to correspond with the neckline of the Head and Shoulders (failed) pattern from June.
Strange how that happens.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Eye on SRS
I am looking to re-enter a long model portfolio position in the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS) into weakness, if we get any. Should such a scenario unfold, then the SRS should pull back into the 28.50/00 area in a shallow correction, or into the 27.00 area in a deep correction.
insert.a.chart.SRS
For the time being, the SRS is flirting with its upper channel line in the 29.60/90 area. If the major market equity indices cannot hold the morning's pre-market lows, then it is unlikely that I will get an opportunity to re-enter a long position into weakness -- and will have to decide if I want to chase strength for a thrust above the May-July resistance line, now at 30.50.
Time to get defensive at the beginning of a major decline?
My short term indicators are signaling at least a short term decline. Wednesday was the 4th day of the new QQQQ short term down-trend. Once a decline begins one never knows how long it will last. A major clue I use is the Worden T2108 Indicator. Most of the time a decline ends with this indicator below 20%. The 2008 decline ended with a reading around 1.2%. It currently is at 26%.
With the entire world seemingly enamored of cutting government deficits, several pundits are asserting that this misguided strategy will bring on an economic depression. I tend to agree. Government spending = somebody’s income. When you cut spending you reduce income, throw people out of work and cut consumer demand, not exactly the outcomes that we desire. If government spending does not make up for the huge loss in wealth and consumer demand that resulted from the evaporation of real estate values, where is the money going to come from to foster demand for goods and services? So, in this context, the market may be telling us that really bad times are ahead.
It is therefore time for me to get defensive and to begin to pull money out of my university pension mutual funds. I will do so in stages as the trends mature. The weekly GMMA chart below shows that the longer term moving averages (red) of the QQQQ are beginning to level out. We are not in a full fledged decline yet, but once the longer term averages top out and curve down as they did at the end of 2007, we will be. Therefore, with the shorter term averages (black lines) in a decline and converging with the longer term averages (red) I believe we are more likely at the beginning, rather than at the end of a major decline.
- gmi: 0
- gmi-r: 0
- t2108: 26
Dismal Economic News Flow Continues
ISM Manufacturing, while still expansionary at 56.2, was a massive miss versus the 59 expectation. (I believe last month was 59.7)
Pending home sales index for May came in 30% below April's propped up by government handouts level, and more important a 16% year over year drop.
versus quite weak levels in 2009
Again, I cannot stress enough how May, June, July are the key months of real estate in Cramerica. If there is such weak organic (non government influenced) demand these months, you are not going to see anything positive in October or February. The economy is weakening considerably without government assistance in every part of the economy.
While I think the GOP is just bluffing with this stalling on extended emergency unemployment benefits, if they are firm on that, this will be another blow as millions are now dependent on government checks (our current era's only stop gap versus soup lines). I read 2M will lose benefits in the coming weeks with 200K each additional week from here on out if the federal government does not keep sending out checks.
My thesis that this is indeed one big Great Recession, only interruped by a massive inflow of government/Fed monies creating a false dawn is looking more realistic. Again, if you throw $3-4 trillion into the economy you can make any economic figure dance... for a while. So I won't call it a double dip if this trend continues in the next 6 months (even though officially it will be viewed as one). It was instead 1 big dip interrupted by never seen before levels of intervention aka green shoots. What should be scary is all the bullets that have been shot and yet here we seem to be descending at roller coaster pace.
Market seems to finally be facing reality again after the premarket markup; will hold these puts for a bit more.
EDIT 10:18 AM - we are now at the S&P 1020 level mentioned in previous post, and reached in premarket before the 'urgent buyer' showed up.
MORE RISK AVERSION IN JUNE
June was another rough month for risky assets, although the losses were considerably deeper with U.S. stocks from a dollar-based return perspective. REITs also took a hit: for the first time since the opening months of 2009, real estate securities dropped by more than 5% for the second month running. Bonds, on the other hand, did quite well in June. With the threat of deflation taking a toll on investor sentiment, the safety of fixed-income (even at unusually low yields) attracted capital flows last month like moths to a flame. And commodities overall, as per the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index, managed to eke out a fraction gain.
As our table below shows, the worst of the red ink was largely contained in REITs and domestic equities. That helped keep losses in the Global Market Index to a relatively light decline of 1.2% in June.
But don't let June mask the broader trend. Stepping back and considering the first half of 2010, there are more losses, and deeper ones among the major asset classes. Commodities, for instance, are down by nearly 10% and foreign developed stocks have retreated by more than 13% in dollar terms�"the steepest decline for the major asset classes on a year-to-date basis through June’s close. The global flight into the dollar via Treasuries has helped push the greenback higher so far this year. In turn, that exacerbates any losses in foreign assets when priced in dollars.
Unsurprisingly, the proprietary benchmark for The Beta Investment Report posted middling results relative to the major asset classes during this year’s first six months. The Global Market Index has shed 4.2% this year through June 30.
What's convincing the crowd to run for cover? Deflation worries, which may show up in any number of ways in the weeks and months ahead. The leading concern is that the value of GDP will fall. In other words, renewed concern about recession is again at the top of the worry list.
The sentiment shift was evident in May, when the markets demanded a new and lower price for risk. That's another way of saying that investors demanded a higher expected return, a preference that may have legs. Midway in May, we noted that there were warning signs to consider, including the simultaneous rise of gold and the dollar. The two usually move in opposite directions, unless risk aversion is on the rise. Until the economic data offers compelling evidence to the contrary, the markets aren't likely to reconsider the bearish outlook that's prevailed for the last two months.
This morning's update on initial jobless claims certainly doesn't provide an incentive to think positively. New filings for unemployment benefits jumped 13,000 last week to a total of 472,000. As we've been arguing for some time, the trendless trend in jobless claims is a sore point in the economic recovery and one that threatens to do serious damage to sentiment the longer it rolls on. For the moment, it's rolling on, as the second chart below reminds.
Tomorrow brings word of the broad employment picture for June. Unfortunately, the outlook isn't rosy. The consensus forecast calls for a retreat of 100,000 in last month's nonfarm payrolls, according to Briefing.com.
In fact, the markets have been pricing in a fresh round of bad news for the better part of the last two months. As we opined in January, the odds looked pretty good that 2010 would be a much more challenging year compared with 2009--a contrarian view at the time. Indeed, saving the economy from collapse was relatively easy, and markets reacted according in 2009 by repricing risk higher (and expected return lower). Keeping the reflation going, however, is something else. Macroeconomics has learned much over the decades about how to sidestep a full-blown meltdown. Figuring out what needs to be done to keep the rebound going in the wake of a deep financial crisis is on much more tenuous intellectual ground.
For what it's worth, we're still not convinced that a new recession is imminent. Nonetheless, the odds of stagnation, or worse, are rising. Much depends on how the Fed reacts in the coming weeks. Yesterday we argued that the central bank needs to keep the pace of money supply rising at a healthy clip, at least for the time being. Instead, the Fed has let the annual pace of change in the money supply drop like a rock. Unless that changes, and soon, the economic outlook may continue to deteriorate further.
Market Breaks Neckline, Head and Shoulders Ignites!
The head and shoulders pattern ignited yesterday as the market got more follow-through to the downside. On June 21st we were at 1131 and now, about a week and half later, we are around 1025 (over 100 handles lower). That’s a nice down move if you were prepared with the 1120-1140 resistance zone as the potential right shoulder. This bounce was necessary to complete our head and Shoulders top pattern.
Yesterday the 1040 neckline broke, and over the next month or so we should see a move to around 940-970. But as ACTIVE, CASH FLOW traders we trade every day. At this point I will see how market acts in the 1013-1018 area for some type of long if it develops. We went heavy short on my note last Thursday around 1080, but I did cover a third into yesterday’s close around 1130, and will cover a bit more if we can get below 1020 this morning. I need to take trades. I will hold some of my macro shorts until we break 1000 and get to my targeted areas of 940-970.
On to today’s trade. I will watch yesterday’s low very carefully to see if we trade through it early and find some support for a quick cash flow bounce.
In Technology stocks, the technical damage added up and we had some nice shorts in this week.
AAPL was a nice short for us around 269-270 as it broke upper range. Now we need to see how it handles 247-250.
BIDU broke multi-month uptrend around 72-73 and now is testing lower support around 65-66, this might need to hang here for a bit.
AMZN was an awesome short for us from 123, and it did test the October gap and now 108 is the new point of reference.
VMW had a big move off highs, now it’s worth a sclap long if it can hold 60-62.
SNDK also broke it’s multi-month uptrend. And now could be worth a look for a scalp long if it holds 41-42.
GOOG is a disaster, a laggard and just keeps drifting lower.
NFLX down move was telegraphed well after the potent down move on June 21st and now it’s at a spot that could hold for a day or so.
Banks, which have been lagging and a great indicator of action broke their lower range yesterday. Monday was very helpful when they gave back over 50% of the Friday “reform gains” this gave us clues that this down move would hit this week.
GS is breaking the 131-132 area and next big support is 125-127.50.
JPM is also breaking lower support and could see 35 with some time.
Casinos got hurt quickly after erratic action last week.
LVS went from strong-to-weak in a flash. I will look for a small bounce in the 21-22 area.
WYNN, I won’t trade but could hold 75 for a day or so.
MGM got crushed. It could be worth a trade from 9.00-9.50 back to 10ish but not more.
Gold continues to hold uptrend and has been quiet. Make sure 119.50-120 holds on the GLD. That is my stop. If it takes off I will add.
Equity Investors Hit the Panic Button, Gold Remains Inactive
Equity market looks ugly, S&P loses 5.4% for June
Following the 8.2% decline in May, the S&P 500 ended the month of June registering a 5.4% loss closing at new lows for the current correction. The S&P is now 15.5% off the April highs with seemingly no buyers to be found. Dumping my remaining longs at yesterday's open proved to be a wise move and allowed me the clarity of thought to short the NYSE:SPY into today's close as sellers came in with a vengeance to break the $1,040 level. Rather than the typical window-dressing at quarter end we saw what Brian Shannon of Alpha Trends
dubbed "end of quarter window-smashing". After trying to hold on all day in the green, volume picked up into the close as investors threw in the towel.
We closed today well below the much talked about $1,040 level that every technician is eying as the neckline of a broad head and shoulders pattern, considered to be the most reliable reversal pattern in technical analysis. Now that everyone sees it, the debate in the blogosphere is whether everyone seeing it (even Goldman Sachs and CNBC pundits) will make it not happen. Yikes, I'll sit that one out!
Just by watching the price action the market seems easily headed for more downside with some nerve-testing bounces along the way for the shorts. We are getting deeper into the summer which are historically poor months for market performance. After the 80%+ rally off lows, a 20-25% correction would be neither disastrous nor unexpected.
Gold still hanging onto the trendline but surprisingly inactive
All right gold, I've had enough of this, just go! Anyone else thinking this? Gold has apparently lost its risk-aversion trade characteristics failing to budge even as equity markets disintegrate. I continue to be long NYSE:GLD but payment has not visited me yet. Two Mondays in a row provided vicious stop-triggering moves to the downside but both were met with buying in front of previous pivot lows.
There is certainly demand for the metal but the trade is also certainly crowded. While it does not mean that the trade will not work just because it is crowded, it means that attention to detail on price is of extreme importance. Very good risk/reward prices are essential in order to hold onto shares when weak holders panic out. Let's hope I'm a strong enough buyer to stay with the move.
Treasuries gather buyers from everywhere
What a flight to safety over the last few days! The yield curve has flattened aggressively, typically not a great sign for economic expectations. The 2-year will get you a whopping 0.61% in yield while the 10-year offers 2.97%. 10-year yields have dropped from April highs of 3.99% to today's levels showing the movement of money into risk-free assets and out of risky equity markets.
What a dirty move copper made yesterday! After breaking the multi-month downtrend and strongly reclaiming the $3 handle on Friday, copper dropped 5.3% back below $3 and now sits at $2.91. Doctor copper is often a leading indicator and the reversal does not bode well for equity markets.
Entering the New Normal
Bill Gross' Alphabet Soup investment outlook for July 2010 is out highlighting that, basically, things haven't changed much. He does note the lack of acceptance of his views: "Our 'New Normal' two-word duality seems to resonate more on the 'normal' than the 'new' to economists whose last names aren’t Roubini, Reinhart, Rogoff, or Rosenberg. It’s as if 'R' has been eliminated from the financial alphabet, and 'new' from investors’ dictionaries worldwide."
My name is Rowley...perhaps that is why I agree with him! Though please do not confuse me with the others, Roubini in particular. I think the PIMCO guys missed the initial reflation trade and now we have reached the time to expect lowered returns due to "deleveraging, reregulation, and deglobalization". Gross' prescription is right on: "If policymakers could act in unison and smoothly transition maxed-out indebted consumer nations into future producers, while simultaneously convincing lightly indebted developing nations to consume more, then our predicament would be manageable." Yet, he follows with the succinct realization that: "They cannot."
Buffalo Trader Bullish Reversal Report 07/01/2010
These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 07/01/2010:
$INDU $SPX $COMPQ $RUT
Monthly Momentum Neg Neg Neg Neg
Weekly Momentum Pos Pos Pos Pos
Daily Momentum Neg (OS) Neg (OS) Neg (OS) Neg (OS)
N means neutral, Neg means negative, Pos means positive (OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares:
| Company | Symbol | Exch. | Price | Industry | Sector |
| ProShrsUlShRus2 | SRTY | xN | 60.13 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| ProShrsUlShtFnl | SKF | xA | 23.36 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| ProShrsUlShtRs | TWM | xA | 23.16 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| PwrShrsCrdOlDbl | DTO | N | 76.41 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| Direxion FnlBr | FAZ | xN | 17.421 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| ProShrsUlShCrde | SCO | xN | 15.24 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| ProShrs ShtFin | SEF | xA | 44.292 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| Direxion RelEst | DRV | xN | 7.81 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| ProShrsShortRss | RWM | xN | 43.2 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| ProShrsUlShtRE | SRS | xA | 29.21 | ETFs (Short) | ETFs |
| Putnam Premier | PPT | N | 6.48 | Market (ClsdEndFndsDom) | Market |
| Spdr Leh1-3Mnt | BIL | A | 45.868 | ETFs (FixedInc\Treasury) | ETFs |
| Nuveen Build Am | NBB | N | 19.8 | Market (ClsdEndFndsDom) | Market |
| PwrShrsDBAgriDb | DAG | N | 6.3 | ETFs (Commdty)\TotRtn) | ETFs |
The stocks listed below are ranked by pattern bullish reversals based on a momentum indicator. Each stock by sector is listed with the cheapest stocks on a near-free-cash-flow value/price basis at the top, and more expensive stocks on that basis farther down each sector list (they are listed alphabetically):
| Company | Symbol | Exch. | Industry | Sector |
| Spirit Arsystms | SPR | xN | Aerospace & Defense (OEM) | Aerospace & Defense |
| Hanesbrands | HBI | xN | Apparel (Clothing) | Apparel |
| Stanley Works | SWK | xN | Building (Tools) | Building |
| Eagle Material | EXP | xN | Building (Cement Etc.) | Building |
| Valassis Comm | VCI | xN | Business Svc (Advertising) | Business Svc |
| Babcock &Brown | FLY | N | Business Svc (Leasing) | Business Svc |
| Nice SysLtd | NICE | xO | Computer (Systems) | Computer |
| Abbott Labs | ABT | xN | Drug (Ethical) | Drug |
| Littlefuse | LFUS | xO | Electronic (Components) | Electronic |
| Penn VA Rscs | PVR | xN | Energy (Coal) | Energy |
| SunPower Corp | SPWRA | xO | Energy (Clean) | Energy |
| CentralEuroDst | CEDC | xO | Food (Bev-Alcoholic) | Food |
| Constlatn Brnd | STZ | xN | Food (Bev-Alcoholic) | Food |
| Alterra Cao | ALTE | O | Insurance (Prop\Casualty) | Insurance |
| Estee LauderA | EL | xN | Personal (Cosmetics) | Personal |
| SeaDrill Ltd | SDRL | xN | Petroleum (Drilling) | Petroleum |
| Nat’l Oilwell | NOV | xN | Petroleum (Mach\Equipment) | Petroleum |
| Duoyuan Glbl | DGW | N | Pollution Control (Equip) | Pollution Control |
| Walgreen Co | WAG | xN | Retail (Drug Stores) | Retail |
| Magyar Tvkz ADS | MTA | N | Telecomm (Services) | Telecomm |
| Copa Hldgs | CPA | xN | Transportation (Airlines) | Transportation |
| Allegiant Trvl | ALGT | xO | Transportation (Airlines) | Transportation |
| GOL Linhas Area | GOL | xN | Transportation (Airlines) | Transportation |
| Cont’l Air B | CAL | xN | Transportation (Airlines) | Transportation |
| Skywest Inc | SKYW | xO | Transportation (Airlines) | Transportation |
| UAL Corp | UAUA | xO | Transportation (Airlines) | Transportation |
| NextEra | NEE | xN | Utility (Electric) | Utility |
| Energen Corp | EGN | xN | Utility (Gas) | Utility |
Stocks that almost passed the neural net screens but just missed: None
Fears over world economic slowdown continue and as such, buyers are absent and the market is falling on its own weight. Futures are down on concerns over China growth, and the downward price cycle seems to continue. Even though transports (airlines in particular), electronic components and utilities seem to be attempting a bottom, once again, the statistics on the patterns do not merit buy signals, and for that reason, I am still on the sidelines. Nothing passed the net screens again today. We are challenging and will likely breach the May lows with symmetry targets pretty close to those I mentioned two weekends ago. I will review them once again this weekend in blog.
Here is what passed the neural net screens:
Value/Price EST. 7 day ATR %( 7 day ATR)/Close
None
Note (O): optionable*
Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average.
I hate to be so repetitive, but I cannot express any better what I continue to see in this market, discussed below:
The dynamics of longer term momentum are rather bearish, with monthly momentum still negative. Daily momentum could be bottoming temporarily on the downside, but only time will tell. Weekly momentum data suggests that it might be possible for another rally to occur before any extended downside price action could occur, but the jury is still out on that prospect.
Any positions, short or long, should be limited in size to what your risk tolerance and trading capital limits allow. Use proper money management skills to scale into and out of positions as profits occur. Low overall volume could also still be an issue as the summer ends. These are tough market conditions in which to trade. Journal mistakes you make and the conditions in which you make them and learn from them. These are times that will hone you as a better trader and investor if you do so.
One needs to stick with one’s trading strategies and not roll the dice. Manage your stops and targets well. It will help make AND save you money. We still do not know from day to day what will push this market.
Take care,
DBB
European Financial Sector Remains Focus
EUR/USD
The Euro found support below 1.22 against the dollar in early Europe on Wednesday, but was unable to make much headway as underlying sentiment remained weak.
The European financial sector remained an important focus, especially with refinancing operations due on Wednesday and Thursday. There was a three-month auction for funds on Wednesday and demand for funds from the ECB was lower than expected at EUR130bn compared with some fears that there could have been demand close to EUR200bn.
The lower than expected figure raised expectations that the much larger 12-month tender on Thursday would also see lower than expected demand and this helped trigger a significant Euro advance on hopes that financing conditions were better than expected.
The US ADP employment data was weaker than expected with private-sector payroll growth at 13,000 for June compared with expectations of a figure near 60,000. The figure will dampen expectations over Friday’s monthly payroll data and will reinforce fears that the economy is set for a deterioration in conditions during the second half of 2010.
Fed officials were also generally downbeat on employment prospects in comments during Wednesday and this maintained expectations of low interest rates which will curb dollar yield support.
The Euro lost ground following the ADP report as risk appetite deteriorated, but there was some recovery following the Chicago PMI report which came in close to expectations at 59.1 for June which helped soothe immediate economic fears. The Euro pushed to a high near 1.23 before retreating back to the 1.2240 area later in the US session.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
Call now and you will be provided with FREE recent forecasts
that are up to 86% accurate * 800-732-5407
If you would rather have the recent forecasts sent to you, please go here
Yen
During Asian trading on Wednesday, the Finance Ministry declined to comment directly on currency levels, but stated that moves would need to be watched closely. There will be further speculation that the Ministry will look to block further yen gains which will also tend to deter buying support to some extent. Risk appetite was still fragile during the day which maintained some underlying defensive demand for the yen and the dollar was trapped close to the 88.50 area.
The dollar dipped lower following the ADP employment report, but selling pressure was contained and the currency consolidated close to the 88.50 area in New York trade as equity markets attempted to rally.
China’s PMI data will be watched closely on Thursday and any renewed deterioration in the data would tend to provide yen protection on renewed fears over the global economy.
Sterling
The was unable to make a renewed attack on resistance levels above 1.51 against the dollar and had a generally weaker tone during the day. There was some profit taking on short Euro/Sterling positions before the month-end which pushed the Euro back towards 0.82 and this also tended to undermine the UK currency against the dollar.
There were mixed comments from Bank of England member Posen who highlighted the risks of inflation and a renewed downturn in the economy. Uncertainty will remain a key short-term feature and the fluctuations in sentiment is also likely to lead to additional Sterling volatility.
Trends in risk appetite were important during the day and the UK currency was unsettled when confidence deteriorated. Sterling consolidated below 1.50 against the dollar later in the US session.

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
Call now and you will be provided with FREE recent forecasts
that are up to 86% accurate * 800-732-5407
If you would rather have the recent forecasts sent to you, please go here
Swiss franc
The dollar was blocked close to 1.0850 against the franc on Wednesday and there was renewed downward pressure on the US currency during New York trading with a low close to 1.0750. The Euro remained under pressure against the franc as it tested fresh record lows below 1.32.
The KOF business confidence index edged higher to 2.25 in the latest month from 2.16 the previous month which will maintain underlying confidence surrounding the Swiss economy. The robust reading will also lessen pressure on the National Bank to intervene and restrain the franc which will tend to maintain a robust currency tone in the near term.
Australian dollar
The Australian dollar was able to find support below 0.85 against the US dollar in early Europe on Wednesday and recovered to a high around 0.8560 following the Euro recovery and improvement in risk appetite.
The Australian dollar was unable to sustain the gains and weakened to lows below 0.8450 in New York as equity markets hesitated and there was fresh downward pressure on commodity prices.
The currency will be vulnerable to further selling pressure if there is weak Chinese data on Thursday.
Read More at TraderPlanet.com »
Global Manufacturing Indexes Slow
The bad news: Chinese (and European) manufacturing indexes came in light.
The good news: While hitting those markets quite sharply, the U.S. premarket has mostly been rallying off overnight lows this AM, hence one could claim bad news is losing its effect. ( EDIT 8:32 AM - Weekly jobless claims just put the hammer to futures... if only we could stop releasing news; those darn facts keep getting in the way of Kool Aid)
US manufacturing (ISM) will be released this morning as the last major data point before tomorrow's employment data. (expectation = 59) Keep in mind this has been the main bright spot in the U.S. economy - unfortunately it now accounts for roughly 13% of GDP and 9% of American employment as we've rushed to get rid of as much mfg capability as possible.
Please note there are 2 reports out of China, one private; one public. The private report is close to contraction.
Via Bloomberg:
- Manufacturing growth from China to the euro-region slowed in June, suggesting the global export-led recovery is losing strength. In China, manufacturing growth slowed more than economists forecast, and a gauge of factory output in the 16-member euro region weakened for a second month, two surveys showed.
- Today’s purchasing manager index for China indicated manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 16 months, excluding a Lunar New Year-affected February 2010. The government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index declined to 52.1 from 53.9 in May.
- HSBC's China Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a 14-month low of 50.4 -- just above the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction -- from 52.7 in May, with both output and new orders dropping outright for the first time since the depths of the global downturn in March 2009.
- In India, where the central bank has raised interest rates twice since mid-March to curb inflation, the purchasing managers’ index fell to 57.3 from 59 in May.
- “We expect data to soften from here,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “It’s going to raise some question marks about the outlook, about a double dip. It’s an environment with significant downside risks.”
- Limited demand in advanced economies has left the world reliant on emerging markets, led by China, to drive a recovery that Group of 20 leaders this week described as “uneven and fragile.” Signs of a slowdown as the Chinese government clamps down on property speculation and the effects of its stimulus package fade have unsettled investors. Baosteel Group Corp., China’s second-biggest steelmaker, this week scaled back its growth plans, cutting its target for capacity in 2012 by 38 percent and forecasting a “bumpy, unpredictable and long” global recovery.
In Europe ex-UK, a slight dip:
- The final euro-zone manufacturing purchasing managers index, a gauge of activity based on a survey of some 3,000 manufacturing firms, eased to a four-month low of 55.6 in June from 55.8 in May. Although manufacturing production, new orders and new export orders all rose for the 11th month in a row, forward-looking indicators in the survey suggested output may have peaked in April.
UK:
- The bounceback in Britain's manufacturing industry showed signs of cooling last month as export order growth almost ground to a halt, according to latest figures.
- The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's (CIPS) activity index, where a reading over 50 indicates growth, eased to 57.5 in June from 58 in May. Export orders - a key support to the recovery in recent months - slowed sharply as the eurozone debt crisis and a stronger pound hit sales to mainland Europe.
Metals Commentary from Jim Wyckoff
METALS: August gold futures closed up $1.70 at
$1,244.10 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in
quieter trading. The gold bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no
early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at
hand. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to
produce a close above solid chart resistance at the all-
time high of $1,266.50. Bears' next downside price
objective is closing prices below technical support at
the last "reaction low" on the daily bar chart, which is
located at last week's low of $1,225.20. First resistance
is seen at today's high of $1,248.80 and then at
$1,254.50. Support is seen at today's low of $1,235.10
and then at this week's low of $1,227.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.
December silver futures closed up 7.3 cents at $18.771 an
ounce today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Trading has turned choppy recently. The silver bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the last
"reaction low" on the daily chart, which is last week's
low of $18.28. Bulls' next upside price objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
June high of $19.55 an ounce. First resistance is seen at
today's high of $18.88 and then at $19.00. Next support
is seen at today's low of $18.555 and then at this week's
low of $18.495. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
December N.Y. copper closed up 215 points at 297.40 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
saw a short covering bounce in a bear market. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the June low of 277.00
cents. Bulls' next upside objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week's high of 313.75 cents. First resistance is seen at
300.00 cents and then at 305.00 cents. First support is
seen at 295.00 cents and then at today's low of 290.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.









