Free Swing Trading and Day Trading Picks & Education

I was on CNBC Australia last night talking about the outlook for the Australian dollar and the upcoming RBA rate decision

Some Potential Swing Trading Opportunities for today...

These stocks will be monitored by you every day!!! Follow the master plan and you will be on your way to learn to trade stocks like a PRO... enjoy...

The results are generated by my stock scanner. Only the first 5 results are displayed here for every scan.

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SECRETS TO GREAT RESULTS:
CONFIDENCE - PATIENCE- FOCUS - DISCIPLINE

Long Swings

Window

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 7) and (adx(10) > 30) and (pdi(10) > mdi(10)) and (high() < sma(close,5))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

AYE	NYSE	Allegheny Energy Inc	2/26/2010
BKS	NYSE	Barnes & Noble Inc	2/26/2010
CPO	NYSE	Corn Products International, Inc.	2/26/2010
FAF	NYSE	First American Corporation	2/26/2010
TRN	NYSE	Trinity Industries Inc.	2/26/2010

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

Swings

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (force_index(3) <= 0) and (force_index(13) >= 0) and (adx(10) > 30) and (high() < high()[-1]) and (high()[-1] < high()[-2]) and (close() > sma(close,10)) and (close() > sma(close,20))

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

JCP

NYSE

J.C. Penney Company Inc.

2/26/2010

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

1-2-3-4

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000) and (close() > 12) and ((adx(10) + adx(20))/2 > 30) and (pdi(10)+pdi(20) > mdi(10) + mdi(20)) and (low() < low()[-1]) and (low()[-1] < low()[-2]) and (high() < high()[-1]) and (high()[-1] < high()[-2])

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

CPO	NYSE	Corn Products International, Inc.	2/26/2010
CYN	NYSE	City National Corporation	2/26/2010
FAF	NYSE	First American Corporation	2/26/2010
NYB	NYSE	New York Community Bancorp, Inc.	2/26/2010

Results for AMEX

Results for NYSEARCA

Cross

Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)and(close() > 12)and(sma(close,5)>sma(close,15))and(close() < sma(close,5))and(close() > sma(close,15))and(high() < high()[-1])and(close() > open())

Results for NASDAQ

Results for NYSE

AVP	NYSE	Avon Products, Inc.	2/26/2010
CRM	NYSE	salesforce.com, inc.	2/26/2010
GS	NYSE	Goldman Sachs Group Inc.	2/26/2010
MTB	NYSE	M&T Bank Corporation	2/26/2010
NDN	NYSE	99 Cents Only Stores	2/26/2010

Indiana's Health Savings Accounts: The state deposits $2,750 per year into an account controlled by the employee, out of which he pays all his health bills. Indiana covers the premium for the plan. The intent is that participants will become more cost-conscious and careful about overpayment or overutilization.

Unused funds in the account�"to date some $30 million or about $2,000 per employee and growing fast�"are the worker's permanent property. For the very small number of employees (6% last year) who use their entire account balance, the state shares further health costs up to an out-of-pocket maximum of $8,000, after which the employee is completely protected.

The HSA option has proven highly popular. This year, over 70% of our 30,000 Indiana state workers chose it, by far the highest in public-sector America. Due to the rejection of these plans by government unions, the average use of HSAs in the public sector across the country is just 2%. State employees enrolled in the consumer-driven plan will save more than $8 million in 2010 compared to their coworkers in the old-fashioned preferred provider organization (PPO) alternative. In the second straight year in which we've been forced to skip salary increases, workers switching to the HSA are adding thousands of dollars to their take-home pay.

Most important, we are seeing significant changes in behavior, and consequently lower total costs. In 2009, for example, state workers with the HSA visited emergency rooms and physicians 67% less frequently than co-workers with traditional health care. They were much more likely to use generic drugs than those enrolled in the conventional plan, resulting in an average lower cost per prescription of $18. They were admitted to hospitals less than half as frequently as their colleagues. Differences in health status between the groups account for part of this disparity, but consumer decision-making is, we've found, also a major factor.

Overall, participants in our new plan ran up only $65 in cost for every $100 incurred by their associates under the old coverage.

It turns out that, when someone is spending his own money alone for routine expenses, he is far more likely to ask the questions he would ask if purchasing any other good or service: "Is there a generic version of that drug?" "Didn't I take that same test just recently?" "Where can I get the colonoscopy at the best price?"

By contrast, the prevalent model of health plans in this country in effect signals individuals they can buy health care on someone else's credit card. A fast-food meal costs most Americans more out of pocket than a visit to the doctor. What seems free will always be overconsumed, compared to the choices a normal consumer would make. Hence our plan's immense savings.

The Indiana experience confirms what common sense already tells us: A system built on "cost-plus" reimbursement (i.e., the more a physician does, the more he or she gets paid) coupled with "free" to the purchaser consumption, is a machine perfectly designed to overconsume and overspend. It will never be controlled by top-down balloon-squeezing by insurance companies or the government. There will be no meaningful cost control until we are all cost controllers in our own right.

Americans can make sound, thrifty decisions about their own health. If national policy trusted and encouraged them to do so, our skyrocketing health-care costs would decelerate.

Let’s take an afternoon look at the ‘popped stops’ rally of March 1st, which shows divergences in Breadth and TICK - both important non-confirmations going forward.

SPY 5-min Mar 1:

First, let me state that divergences in internals do not guarantee reversals, but they signal non-confirmations of price highs which serve as ‘caution lights’ or warning signals to take bullish profits and be on the alert for any weakness.

That being said, we’re looking at the SPY (could be the SP 500 Index or @ES Futures - the picture would be identical) on the intraday frame.

We’re seeing Breadth - Advancing Stocks minus Declining Stocks - then the TICK, and then $VOLD - Volume Difference between Advancing and Declining Stocks as our internals.

As price sneaked its way to the three most recent swing highs (notice the green dots - an indicator in TradeStation to highlight “New High for the Day”), we’ve not seen those highs confirmed with the TICK or Breadth.

The rising action in the VOLD is not surprising, given that 1,700 more stocks are advancing than declining right now (net), so thus volume readings - as measured by VOLD - would be increasing, so we’ll discount that.

What is surprising - and does serve as a deep non-confirmation of the index/price highs - is the Breadth Divergence.  Fewer stocks are positive on the day on each subsequent push to new highs than were at prior highs.

With TICK, the story is the same - fewer stocks are ‘ticking up’ at new price highs than prior price highs.

It’s worth noting that it’s unusual for price to continue rising in the face of such divergences, so be very careful in any long/buy positions, and be ever vigilant for any opportunities to short weakness under $111.60.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

While the e-mini S&P 500 appears to be consolidating at the top of its upmove from last Thursday’s pivot low at 1084.59, the DXY (cash dollar index) is in the process of giving back most of its upmove from earlier today. As of this moment, the combination of a falling dollar and buoyant equity indices argues for continued upside in the commodity-related names and indices into the closing bell �" especially in the metals and mining names, including ETFs such as the GDX and GLD.

insert.a.chart.GDX

With mixed to slightly better than expected U.K. economic data, traders may be scratching their heads about why the British pound has collapsed more than 300 pips this morning. Here are a couple of reasons:

1. Britain’s Prudential announced plans to buy AIG’s Asia operations for $35.5 billion in cash and stock - since this is partially a cash deal, it will involve selling British pounds.

2. Gilts Losing Luster - According to the FT, the gap between the U.K. and German interest rate has risen to the highest level since 2005. Even though the official U.K. interest rate is less than the Eurozone’s interest rate, the cost of servicing government borrowing in the U.K. over Germany has increased significantly.

3. BoE Could Raise QE - Based upon the dovish comments from Bank of England officials at the beginning of last week, there is a tiny risk of the BoE raising the size of their QE program on Thursday. Even if they do not, the tone of their statement will be dovish which is also bearish for the GBP.

4. Short GBP/USD Positions Hit Record Highs - According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report published on Friday, short GBP and EUR positions have hit the highest level ever. Forex traders are clearly very bearish pounds and they have good reasons to be with jobless claims at 12 year highs and consumer spending falling by the most since Feb 2009.

5. Stop Orders Tripped, Hedge Fund Selling - There has also been a lot of chatter about hedgies selling the GBP. There were a ton of stop orders sitting at the previous 9 month low of 1.5117. When the GBP/USD broke that level, the currency pair dropped very quickly. The selling exacerbated when stop orders at the 1.50 level were tripped, but the big move came when the GBP/USD broke below 1.4935 - it fell 158 pips in 3 minutes.

With so many straws on the camel’s back, it was bound to fall under the pressure. A bounce is not out of the question after such a big move particularly since the GBP/USD has not able to rally for the past 9 trading days. However unless the BoE stops talking about QE and we don’t expect them too, the GBP will continue to be the worst performing currency.

Finally, the GBP/AUD has hit a record low. Last week, I blogged about how shorting GBP/AUD is my favorite trade. At the time it was trading above 1.73 and today it hit a low of 1.6545. Hopefully you managed to bank some solid profits. I still expect it to move lower - but this is where trailing stops should be implemented to lock in profits.

Today’s personal income and spending update for January looks like a warning of things to come, but not for the obvious reasons. The weasel in the henhouse is all the more troubling at the moment since it’s masked by the all-important topic of consumer spending, which rose substantially last month. Beneath this rosy surface, however, is a potentially troubling trend.

But first the good news, such as it is. Personal consumption expenditures rose a strong 0.5% last month, the best pace since October. That’s above average by the standard of the past decade. Worries that Joe Sixpack is set to close up shop and save, save, save are on hold again, or so the latest government numbers suggest. But there's a slight glitch. As our first chart below shows, consumer spending rose last month (red line), but the jump coincides with a rather sharp fall in disposable personal income (black line). What’s going on here?

The drop in income reflected an increase in various tax deductions. Indeed, wages overall were up last month, but the BEA reports that a relatively larger bite in domestic “contributions for government social insurance” and “current personal taxes” turned a gain into a retreat for monthly disposable personal income. By recent standards, the rise in taxes looks unthreatening, in both absolute and relative terms. But recent standards are almost certainly misleading, thanks to fiscal stimulus of late and the government's recession-era policy of helping smooth over the rough edges of the Great Recession by putting more money in taxpayer’s pockets.

The outlook for red ink of unprecedented proportions on the government’s balance sheet suggests that Washington will have to dip its hand ever deeper into the taxpayer till in the years ahead. Did the uptick in government deductions last month signal the start of this trend?

Consider two charts that track the last three years of the relative tax bite on personal income. The chart below shows the percentage of personal current taxes relative to personal income on a monthly basis. “Personal current taxes consist of taxes on income, including realized net capital gains, taxes on personal property, payments for motor vehicle licenses, and several miscellaneous taxes, licenses, and fees,” according to the BEA.

The next chart shows the ratio of so-called social insurance deductions to personal income. These taxes fund a number of programs, including Medicare and Social Security, BEA advises.

In both cases, the change in trend is obvious, or so it seems. One month is hardly definitive evidence of a secular shift, but given what we know about government finances, last month's uptick may be more than just statistical noise. Indeed, the trough of December has given way to a rebound in the relative share of tax deductions in January. Given the mounting liabilities facing the government, one doesn't need a wild imagination to expect that the path of least resistance is up for Uncle Sam's relative cut of wages in the year's ahead. Think of it as the new headwind--and one we need like a hole in the head at this point in this business cycle.

For all the troubles of the last two years, one favorable trend has been the general decline in the relative tax burden on wages. All the better since it came when wages overall have tumbled from the lofty peaks of 2007 and early 2008. But for reasons of fiscal integrity, it's getting harder to keep the government's tax burden at the low levels that have prevailed over the last 24 months without cutting spending by more than trivial amounts. And if that isn't enough of a headache, all of this comes at a time of heightened risk that overall economic growth may be substandard for the foreseeable future.

Even if we ignore tax rates, reasonable minds might wonder about the momentum in the broader rebound for spending and income over the past year. As our fourth and final chart below indicates, the annual pace of change in personal income and spending has peaked, at least for the moment. It's unclear what comes next, thanks to a number of rather large unknowns lurking, starting with the labor market.

But we know the key question: What will keep the spending and income recovery alive? The big-picture answer, of course, is economic growth. Will we see any? And how much? The details that deliver an answer are likely to be messy for the year ahead.

It’s already March 1st and the market is off to an early rally!

With a new week and a new month upon us, let’s take a quick look at some of the key indicators/charts that the Disciplined Investor - Andrew Horowitz - is watching on March 1st.

Today’s update is entitled, “An Apathetic Condition” (interesting title):

This week, Andrew writes:

“Volume is one of those indicators that cannot be ignored. It does not show an overbought or oversold signal and it does not oscillate. What it does do is provide a measure of conviction for a market and a better reading on investor sentiment.

Most recently, it almost seems that there is an apathetic mood as investors are awaiting for equity markets to break one way or another.

During that time (since December 2009), volume has been tapering off, unless it is a down day and sellers appear all too ready to dump shares.”

I concur - the boundaries are set and this morning’s bullish spike could continue the short-squeeze higher, but volume is key in assessing whether this is just a short-squeeze on low-volume (bearish) or if volume surges during the rally (not happening so far) which would be a bullish sign.

This week Andrew takes a special look at the volume and ‘internals’ underlying the rally, along with levels to watch.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

• World Acceptance Corporation ( WRLD) today reported record results for the third quarter of fiscal 2010, including a 64.8% increase in diluted earnings per share, a 13.9% increase in gross loan balances, and a 13.3% increase in revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2009, compared with the corresponding quarter of the prior fiscal year.

• Call it a lender in a parallel universe. World Acceptance appears to have proved that subprime lending works. The question is how long it can last.  The consumer-finance company expanded straight through the financial crisis and recession, providing loans to low-income borrowers without bank accounts or credit cards. 
• Thanks to a credit line from banks including Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase, World Acceptance has had plenty of cash. Revenue rose to $394 million in fiscal 2009 ending in March from $243 million in 2006, with higher profits every year.
• World Acceptance's golden goose is refinancing loans of existing customers, which accounts for about 75% of new borrowing. Refinancings are important because World Acceptance makes borrowers commit to repaying both principal and interest due over the loan term. Nonpayment or prepayment are penalized. In contrast, with a credit card, borrowers can maintain a balance and service the interest, or pay off principal when they please.
• Being subprime borrowers, many end up refinancing loans rather than sticking to the original schedule. If they do, World Acceptance uses an arcane technique called the rule of 78s to claim some of the unpaid future interest and wrap it into the new loan. Essentially, World Acceptance extends a fresh loan for more than the outstanding principal. The borrower uses it to pay down the original loan and the extra charge for future interest, while still having some extra cash in his pocket.
• There are signs that World Acceptance's repeat borrowers are making little progress to pay down principal. In fiscal 2006, the average loan balance was $804, but rose to $917 in 2009. Meanwhile, World Acceptance's average new loan has increased from $754 in 2005 to $1,011 in 2009.
• True, World Acceptance's net charge-offs have stayed fairly consistent at about 15% of average loans receivable. But without aggressive loan expansion, largely to existing customers, the rate could rise quickly.
• As a nonbank, World Acceptance doesn't fall under traditional federal bank regulators. And while state usury laws restrict interest rates, World Acceptance has chosen locations where it can charge annual percentage rates ranging from 25% to 215%. Any comprehensive lending overhauls stop the music. (that was the big fear when Obama first came into presidency and the check cashing stocks were crushed - but thus far nothing really has come of it)

The trend in February was again one of posting a wide range of results and a shifting pattern of winners and losers on a monthly basis. This isn’t a shock, but more of it is probably coming, meaning that a new set of challenges await for managing asset allocation relative to the trend for much of the past 12 months.

Last October, we considered a future with a wider divergence of returns: red as well as black ink sprinkled liberally across our monthly performance summaries. At the time, the trend du jour was one of handsome if not stellar gains in virtually everything on a monthly basis. That was all but certain to end at some point, and perhaps sooner rather than later. The great reflation of 2009 in asset prices, while reasonable and somewhat expected, was destined to run its course as the more challenging economic and financial era of the post-Great Recession period arrived.

This new era has been arriving now for several months, courtesy of the market’s efforts to digest a volatile array of news and trends that are often as confusing as they are potent. Indeed, as our table below shows, monthly total returns for the major asset classes were fairly wide last month, ranging from a strong 5.6% gain for REITs down to a 1.2% loss for inflation-indexed Treasuries. That’s almost a mirror reversal of January’s performance results at the extremes, with TIPS in the lead and REITs suffering a hefty tumble in this year's first month.

Expect more of this back and forth, with asset classes shifting positions in the monthly updates. This looks set to continue until a higher level of clarity on the future arrives. That's going to take time as the macroeconomic details of the new world order unfold, for good or ill. Indeed, there are numerous uncertainties lurking, some of which may pose substantial hazards to the cause of sustained economic growth. More often than not, debt is attached to these concerns, one way or another.

Governments the world over are pulling every trick they know out of their monetary and fiscal hats in an effort to combat the hazards that confront the global economy, primarily in the developed world of the U.S., Europe/Britain and Japan. For the near term, the prevailing winds in this epic battle will determine winners and losers on a monthly basis. Depending on the news cycle of the day, progress may appear to have the upper hand, only to give way to the forces of darkness. Lots of suprises are coming. Get used to it, and be patient.

It may be some time before the major asset classes again enjoy a bout of smooth sailing with easy gains in almost everything. Without the powerful tailwind of deep discounts that prevailed in betas a year ago, markets are likely to face a rough sea of volatility and trendless meandering in the months and quarters ahead.