Wednesday, December 01, 2010
Softs Market Commentary from Jim Wyckoff
�SOFTS: March sugar closed down 80 points at 27.55
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar
chart. The key "outside markets" were in a bearish
posture for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar index was
stronger and U.S. stock indexes and crude oil prices were
weaker. Bulls do still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective
is to push and close prices above technical resistance at
29.30 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
the November low of 25.30 cents. First resistance is seen
at 28.00 cents and then at 28.50 cents. First support is
seen at today's low of 27.03 cents and then at 26.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
March coffee closed down 175 points at 200.90 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh two-week low close. The key "outside
markets" were in a bearish posture for coffee today, as
the U.S. dollar index was stronger and U.S. stock indexes
and crude oil prices were weaker. Coffee bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded
recently and need to show fresh power soon. Bulls' next
upside objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week's high of 213.25 cents. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 198.30 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at today's high of 204.00 cents
and then at 205.00. First support is seen at 200.00 cents
and then at 198.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
March cocoa closed up $67 at $2,822 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today on short covering. Trading
has turned choppy. Prices are in the middle of a choppy
trading range on the daily chart. The next upside price
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,900. The next
downside price objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $2,729. First resistance is seen at this
week's high of $2,846 and then at $2,875. First support
is seen at $2,800 and then at $2,775. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.
March cotton closed up 158 points at 117.34 cents today.
More short covering and perceived bargain-hunting buying
were featured today. Prices are still in a three-week-old
downtrend on the daily chart. There are still technical
warning signals that a market top is in place. A V-Top
reversal pattern has formed on the daily chart, amid
extreme price volatility. The next downside price
objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week's low of
111.13 cents. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 125.00 cents. First support is seen at
116.00 cents and then at 115.00 cents. First resistance
is seen at today's high of 118.90 cents and then at
120.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
January orange juice closed down 100 points at $1.4920
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh five-week low. Prices also closed at a bearish
monthly low close today. The bulls are fading. The next
upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above strong technical resistance at last
week's high of $1.5600. The next downside technical
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.4500. First resistance is
seen at $1.5000 and then at today's high of $1.5150.
First support is seen at today's low of $1.4900 and then
at $1.4750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
January lumber futures closed up $1.30 today at $247.00.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market. Lumber bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices above below technical support at the October low
of $237.30. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $255.00. First resistance is seen at
today's high of $248.30 and then at $250.00. First
support is seen at $245.00 and then at $242.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

