Thursday, December 30, 2010
The Christmas Tree Indicator: Economy's Improving
By Dr. Mark J. Perry
AWall Street Journal (OAK PARK, Ill.) -- "Sandhill Christmas Trees here sells fewer than 5,000 firs in a typical holiday season but this year it sold nearly 6,000, many as last-minute deliveries to retailers who had underestimated demand. Sandhill's success mirrors that of tree farms across the U.S.
Precise numbers won't be available until late winter, when the National Christmas Tree Association completes its annual survey. But after two flat seasons, tree-farm associations in the biggest-producing states say members are estimating an industry-wide sales jump in the mid- to high single digits over a year ago, with some growers reporting larger gains.
"At times during the season, we had growers reporting increases of 20% to 40%," said Brian Ostlund, executive director of the Pacific Northwest Christmas Tree Association, whose territory includes Oregon, the nation's largest producer of Christmas trees.
With annual sales under $2 billion, the Christmas tree is a small but nevertheless telling economic indicator because when incomes fall, people tend to forgo buying trees, economists say. "Better sales would be a good supporting indicator for better consumer sentiment," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist for Wells Fargo."
Precise numbers won't be available until late winter, when the National Christmas Tree Association completes its annual survey. But after two flat seasons, tree-farm associations in the biggest-producing states say members are estimating an industry-wide sales jump in the mid- to high single digits over a year ago, with some growers reporting larger gains.
"At times during the season, we had growers reporting increases of 20% to 40%," said Brian Ostlund, executive director of the Pacific Northwest Christmas Tree Association, whose territory includes Oregon, the nation's largest producer of Christmas trees.
With annual sales under $2 billion, the Christmas tree is a small but nevertheless telling economic indicator because when incomes fall, people tend to forgo buying trees, economists say. "Better sales would be a good supporting indicator for better consumer sentiment," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist for Wells Fargo."
