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Monday, November 1-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar index is under pressure again
Monday morning, and the commodity markets are
generally stronger. This week it is expected the
Federal Reserve will announce a fresh quantitative
easing plan--likely on Wednesday afternoon. I do
not look for strong downside price action in the
U.S. dollar index this week, as the "QE" is already
factored into the markets.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,189.70 and then at last week's high of 1,193.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,180.60 and then
at Friday's low of 1,172.10. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at last week's high of
2,136.75 and then at 2,150.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,125.00 and then at 2,116.75. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Thursday's low of 11,080 and then more
stops just below support at 10,050. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
11,125 and then at Thursday's high of 11,150.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131
16/32 and then at 132 even. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 131 even and then at the overnight
low of 130 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
135 12/32--Previous Month's high
132 13/32--18-day moving average
131 25/32--second pivot point resistance
131 12/32--9-day moving average
131 11/32--first pivot point resistance
131 3/32--previous day's high
130 30/32--previous day's close
130 22/32--pivot point
130 14/32--4-day moving average
130 8/32--first pivot point support
130 --previous day's low
129 19/32--second pivot point support
129 18/32--previous month's low
129 9/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are bullish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 126.24.0 and then at
127.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 126.02.5 and
then at 125.25.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

127 22/32--lifetime high
127 22/32--previous month's high
126 25/32--second pivot point resistance
126 21/32--18-day moving average
126 17/32--first pivot point resistance
126 13/32--previous day's high
126 9/32--9-day moving average
126 9/32--previous day's close
126 5/32--pivot point
125 29/32--first pivot point support
125 25/32--4-day moving average
125 25/32--previous day's low
125 17/32--second pivot point support
125 1/32--previous month's low
123 24/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 77.56 and then at 78.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 76.96 and then at 76.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Trading
has been choppy and in a range recently. In
December crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $83.00 and then at $83.50. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$82.00 and then at the overnight low of $81.32.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key
"outside markets" are in a bullish posture for the
grains early today, as the U.S. dollar index is
lower, while stock indexes and crude oil are
firmer. Corn and soybean bulls have solid upside
near-term technical momentum. Wheat futures bulls
have also gained good upside momentum recently. I
look for still more upside price action in the
grains in the coming weeks.