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Friday, October 1-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil prices have pushed above $81.00 a barrel
this morning, as the crude oil bulls have this week
gained good upside technical momentum. The crude
oil market bulls are benefiting from recent rallies
in other commodity markets and from the weaker U.S.
dollar. The fact that U.S. stock indexes have also
been trending higher is bullish for crude. I would
not be surprised to see crude oil challenge the
$85.00 level soon and then back off to trade
sideways into the end of the year.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,144.40 and then at Thursday's high of 1,153.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is
located at Thursday's low of 1,131.50 and then at
this week's low of 1,127.30. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 2,018.50 and
then at this week's high of 2,032.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 1,995.00 and then at Thursday's
low of 1,983.25. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,700 and then more stops just below
support at Thursday's low of 10,684. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
this week's high of 10,800 and then at 10,820.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at the overnight high of 134 2/32 and then at this
week's high of 134 11/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133 7/32 and
then at 133 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
135 14/32--second pivot point resistance
135 4/32--Previous Month's high
134 19/32--first pivot point resistance
134 9/32--previous day's high
133 24/32--previous day's close
133 24/32--4-day moving average
133 14/32--pivot point
132 25/32--9-day moving average
132 19/32--first pivot point support
132 9/32--previous day's low
131 28/32--18-day moving average
131 14/32--second pivot point support
129 5/32--previous month's low
126 29/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral to bearish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 126.08.0 and then at the contract high of
126.15.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at the overnight low of 125.24.5
and then at this week's low of 125.10.0. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

127 1/32--second pivot point resistance
126 18/32--first pivot point resistance
126 15/32--lifetime high
126 15/32--previous month's high
126 13/32--previous day's high
126 5/32--4-day moving average
126 3/32--previous day's close
125 30/32--pivot point
125 21/32--9-day moving average
125 15/32--first pivot point support
125 10/32--previous day's low
124 28/32--18-day moving average
124 27/32--second pivot point support
122 16/32--previous month's low
122 --100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower again in
early trading today. Prices hit a fresh 8.5-month
low overnight. Bears have solid downside near-term
technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 78.75 and then
at the overnight high of 79.01. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 78.37 and
then at 78.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
3.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh seven-week high overnight as the bulls have
gained solid upside technical momentum. In November
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $81.50 and then at $82.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $80.00
and then at the overnight low of $79.70. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly lower in overnight trading, with
corn leading losses following Thursday's bearish
USDA report. Very good harvest progress in the U.S.
Corn Belt this week is a negative for the grains.
No serious chart damage has yet occurred in corn,
and soybeans have seen no chart damage inflicted.
Wheat futures have seen significant chart damage
occur this week.