Monday, February 01, 2010
Quick Trendline Check on Intraday SP500 and SPY Feb 1
I always like to point out simple trendline formations whenever possible, and it would appear we have one of those situations currently in the intraday S&P 500 and SPY charts.
Let’s take a quick look to see where price is likely to travel next if the trendline structure holds.
First, the SPY 30min chart (for the larger perspective):
Price is moving in a contained range as drawn above, between the lower trendline (blue) and 50 period EMA (and upper trendline - also blue).
That would put the next likely move - should the structure hold - to the $109.30 area as seen above.
As a note of trivia, we are also forming a positive momentum divergence in the 3/10 Oscillator - which is associated with a non-confirmation of lower prices (forecasting a potential reversal).
Next, a “zoomed in” view of the 5-min SP500:
This chart looks choppy - and certainly it is - but the main idea is that IF the trendline consolidation structure holds in place, THEN the next likely move (short-term) is to continue this swing back to the 1,093 area.
Be mindful for any deviation (change) in this structure, such as a sudden down-turn from here or a break under the lower trendline and prior swing low at the 1,070 level.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
