Friday, May 01, 2009
Life Expectancy v. Real GDP Per Capita, 1800-2007
Click on the chart above (and then click "Play") to see an amazing video chart from Gapminder showingyear-by-year values for: a) life expectancy and b) real GDP per capita from 1800 to 2007 in various countries around the world. For example, in 1800 life expectancy at birth in the U.S. was 39 years and per-capita real GDP was $1,343, compared to 40 years and $2,280 in the UK, and 25 years and $467 in India.
By 2007, life expectancy in the U.S. was 78 years and per-capita GDP was $42,952. For the UK, it was 79 years and $33,203 and for India 65 years and $2,452.
10 Year Bond Surges to 3.2%

Boy oh boy, we have some interesting times coming. Today at least the "inflation" trade is winning the deflation v inflation battle. The whole key for Ben Bernanke is finding the sweet spot, where he can stoke prices but not to a point that it disturbs long term rates. Otherwise that would stop the whole refinance game / house ATM.
Myself, I am hoping for $3.50 gas, $100+ crude while I hear talk of green shoots. And yes secretly I love seeing the market overwhelm the Very Visible Hand. Ok, not so secretly.
Here is what the bulls are going to say today - the jump in commodities is bullish as it forecasts a return to global growth, blah blah blah. I say that works nice in an expansionary economy. Not so nice in a contracting economy. This will lead to my stagflation thesis i.e. 1970s redux.
I was just pinged that mortgage rates are already up from last weeks 4.70%ishish. Let's watch the refinance reports next week. p.s. this will hurt the title insurers as Doug Kass correctly forecast. And it will hurt the entire home complex trade. I am really surprised Bernanke did not bring out the bazooka earlier this week to keep rates suppressed. Mortgage rates at 5.5%-6.0% ruins this whole "consumer is back" story.
There is no way this is bullish unless you are a believer in the Goldilocks economy - just enough inflation to signal "a return to global growth" but not enough inflation to stagger the increasingly unemployed populace of the world, and US in particular. Enough inflation to "signal" great things coming down the pike, but not enough to cause disconcerting looks from US consumer as he goes to buy food, energy, and the like.
But this is what the spin IS and WILL be. Because it's not Main Street; it's Wall Street. I don't believe in this fairy tale with unemployment still on the rise (in reality in the low teens headed for mid teens) and a struggling consumer who is using tax returns, house ATMs, and the like to spend. But I look forward to hearing the fairy tale of Goldilocks return....
Via WSJ
to 5.20%
- The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to new record highs for 2009 in Friday morning trading, as stocks picked up a little from an early slide. Investors offloaded long-dated government bonds in volumes that could set new trading ranges despite the best efforts of policy makers to keep a lid on benchmark borrowing rates for consumers, homeowners and small business.
- Strategists see the 10-year hitting its next potential ceiling at 3.25%. Investors remain focused on the heavy freight of new government bonds coming next week, when a record $71 billion refunding by the Treasury kicks off.
I did not remember to reload my TLT short post Fed meeting like I had planned to do. Bugger. [Apr 28: Bookkeeping - Covering Most of iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Ahead of Fed]
Make no mistake folks - unless you are of belief the US is about to enter a V shaped recovery this a bearish situation for Main Street even if one thinks the abandonment of safety and return to risk is "bullish" from a Wall Street view.
Speaking of food (reinflation) - [my favorite long term theme is agriculture] see our old friend DBA which just took off like a rocket the past 2 sessions (aka post Fed meeting): this is wheat, soybeans, corn (and to lesser degree sugar). Boo Yah consumer.
Fibonacci Confluence in the NASDAQ May 1
Let’s take a quick look at the levels of Fibonacci Confluence in the NASDAQ Index as we start May, 2009.
The Fibonacci grids I’ve drawn begin at the 1,280 March low level and connect three key swing highs - the colored retracements are the result of these levels and we are looking at the confluence price zones identified by these overlapping grids.
The most significant confluence zone comes in at the 2,050 level, with the next confluence zone coming in at the 1,900 level. Notice the ‘open air’ between these zones. The implication is that if price breaks above one of these zones, odds are it will run up to the next zone of confluence for possible resistance.
We are currently in an area of overhead confluence Fibonacci resistance at the 1,750 level, as price tested this level and currently is failing to overcome the 38.2% Confluence area. With eight consecutive weeks of gains, it would be distinctly against the odds to see a ninth and tenth week (and beyond) of gains.
That’s not to say that it can’t happen or that bulls can’t push us through the Fibonacci confluence levels, but the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against them and that risk clearly remains to the upside (odds favor an inflection or retracement down off resistance rather than breaking through it).
This chart represents a quick glance at Fibonacci confluence. Continue studying the chart for additional insights going forward.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Market in a Minute
Emerging Markets Jump 39.5% Since Early March
Small WV Bank Loses $750,000 Due to TARP And Pays Treasury 60% Annual Interest for 6-Week Loan
The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was crafted at the outset of America's economic crisis by people under a great deal of stress, and probably without much sleep. It's had some unexpected consequences for the banks that borrowed money in the bailout.
Take the case of Centra Bank, a relatively small institution in West Virginia. Centra accepted a $15 million loan from the government and promptly paid it back. But that money came with strings attached, and over the past couple of weeks, Centra executives have realized they lost the better part of $1 million in their dance with TARP.
Here are some of the facts:
To protect taxpayers, warrants are typically part of TARP loan packages, and for Centra to get $15 million, the government forced Centra to sell preferred Centra stock worth $750,000 to the Treasury for $750. When the bank paid back the $15 million loan after six weeks, Centra Bank President Douglas Leech figured the bank would just return the $750 to Treasury.
But Treasury told Centra that to exit the TARP program, the bank would have to wire the full $750,000, plus interest.
Even though the bank had held the money for only six weeks, Centra had to pay the equivalent of a 60% annual interest rate on it. If Centra had stayed in TARP longer, the money would have been a cheap loan. But exiting early came with a stiff penalty. For Centra Bank, TARP backfired. It was supposed to give banks extra capital. Instead, it lost $750,000.
Here's the full NPR story.
MP: Senator Dick Durbin (D-Illinois) has introduced a bill called “Protecting Consumers from Unreasonable Credit Rates Act,” which proposes a federally regulated maximum interest rate of 36%. Perhaps he would consider amending it to also protect small banks like Centra receiving TARP funding from paying more than 36%?
A Stroll Through the Hotel Space
As all things consumer discretionary continue to jump ever higher [Apr 26: The Meek Continue to Dominate Equities] [Apr 5, 2009: The Meek Shall Inherit the Earth: 92 Stocks Over $10 Returning 60%+] on hopes of recovery in the not too distant future, I thought I'd circle back and look at some of the major hotels who just reported to see how they are doing. At this point all hotels are blessed - no worries about debt [Jan 27, 2009: As Hotel Vacancies Rise, So Do Risks of Default] [Nov 27, 2008: AP - Malls, Hotels Next Victims in New Mortgage Crisis] no worries about a weak consumer staying home and doing "staycations" - the Bernanke house ATM is back on, and feel free to move about the cabin.
Much like the multiple premature consumer discretionary rallies in 2008, this is "the playbook" and no matter what the reality is down the road, this whole sector is being bid up under the guise of ignore news now because the Oracle that is the market can see the future. It was wrong multiple times in the past; will it be correct this time? First, I don't know and second, it does not matter - as long as the herd is doing you, you can profit. Simple as that.
We last looked at this group in the January piece above, so I am going to circle back and look at Marriott (MAR),[Marriott, Ritz-Carlton, Residence Inns] Starwood Hotels (HOT) [Westin, Sheraton, Four Points], Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) [Ramada, Days Inn, Super 8] and Choice Hotels (CHH) [Quality Inn, Comfort Inn, Econo Lodge] - this gives us a good cross section of economic price points. Recall in previous recessions you could stick with the top end players because the well heeled were recession resistant, while the sludge of the Earth (peasantry) took the hits in the economy. This time not so much - we're all having fun together. RevPar is the key "measuring stick" in this sector (revenue per available room), and the higher end chains also do a lot of work in timeshares. And like almost every company beating the numbers it's "chop chop chop" across the expense line (mostly labor).
I know valuation does not matter to eager bulls who buy stocks at any price but I posted the forward PE at current estimates (which of course could be too high or too low) next to each name... as you mock my use of PE multiples as a useful tool remember this is a suffering industry showing shrinkage or at best "flattish" growth for the next year or two. If you believe in a grand consumer recovery, then I suppose you can add 15, 20, 25% to analyst estimates for 2009 and reduce the PE by an offsetting amount. These are not trailing... these are forward PEs
First we start with Marriott @ 26x forward PE, (Marriot has $3B in debt.) via APReuters
and
- Hotel operator Marriott International (MAR) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss on Thursday, helped by sharp cost cuts and signs of stabilizing demand. The company, which operates the Marriott, Ritz Carlton, Renaissance hotels, said its net loss was $23 million, or 6 cents per share, compared to a year-earlier profit of $121 million, or 33 cents per share. Excluding $129 million in pretax restructuring costs, the company earned 24 cents per share in the quarter, beating analyst estimates of 14 cents, according to Reuters Estimates. (remember restructuring costs don't count in American accounting, because its 1x and not "real" hence should not count against the company)
- Revenue fell 15 percent to $2.5 billion.
- First quarter results were hurt by a nearly 20 percent drop in worldwide RevPAR. For the second quarter of 2009, the company expects North American RevPAR to drop 22 percent to 25 percent and international revenue to decline between 17 percent and 20 percent.
- Despite the global slowdown, the company said it has seen a stabilization or slowing decline in its booking trends. Gross trends for corporate or package bookings were leveling off and new bookings were falling at a slower rate.
- "There are some initial signs of demand stabilization even if that today is at very low levels," said Chief Financial Officer Arne Sorenson.
- The company, which operates 3,200 lodging properties worldwide, has battled lower demand by driving down room rates and cutting general and administrative costs 16 percent in the first quarter. (chop chop chop) North American management wages fell about 10 percent during the quarter. "The full-year EPS guidance would have been worse if not for aggressive corporate cost savings," FBR Capital analyst Patrick Scholes wrote in a note.
- In the first quarter, Marriott trimmed costs by shutting restaurants, cutting hours and trimming menu options. It cut hours at its retail stores and at some hotels, temporarily closed floors.
- The company lowered its adjusted earnings to between 20 cents and 23 cents per share in the second quarter, but said it was unable to provide a full-year outlook owing to the business environment. (once more, the company cannot see the bright future, but market speculators can)
- Robert LaFleur of Susquehanna Financial Group said the company "did an exceptional job of wringing costs out of its operations in the quarter."
- Still, Sorenson said while demand may have bottomed, "there is still a risk in pricing and therefore RevPAR," referring to an industry-wide metric of profitability. "Room rates are likely to remain weak until the economy shows improvement," Sorenson said.
- Marriott said it saw a 31 percent drop in revenue from its 68 timeshare properties, resulting in a $17 million loss as well as a 9.3 percent drop in revenue in its 100 luxury properties, leading to a $22 million loss.
- Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Woronka also said the company's outlook "confirms that fundamentals remain very weak and visibility low."

Next onto Starwood Hotels (HOT) @ 23x forward PE, (Starwood has $3.8B of debt) via Reuters
- Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT), operator of the W, Sheraton and St. Regis chains, reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Thursday as cost-cutting offset dwindling demand.
- The world's No. 8 hotel group by rooms reported a net profit of $6 million, or 3 cents per share, compared with $32 million, or 17 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding restructuring and other charges, Starwood, far above analysts' average forecast of 3 cents, according to Reuters Estimates. (once more, restructuring charges don't count, otherwise the entire stock market would look far more expensive - it's "1x" and hence doesn't count) reported earnings of 14 cents a share
- But total revenue fell 23.7 percent to $1.1 billion, hurt by weakness in luxury brands and abroad. "For the first time in a while our traditional strengths have, for now, become significant headwinds," van Paasschentranslation: we cater to the well off which used to matter in previous slowdowns - this time around even they are being hit) said during the call. (
- Starwood relied on sharp cost-cutting to beat Wall Street forecasts. Starwood's costs and expenses fell nearly 20 percent in the first quarter. The cuts were essential for Starwood, which saw RevPAR for company-operated hotels worldwide fall 24.3 percent from the year-ago quarter. North American company-operated RevPAR fell 24.9 percent. "RevPAR will continue to be challenged for the balance of the year as rates, if not occupancy, continues to be under pressure," Chief Executive Frits van Paasschen said during a call with analysts.
- RevPAR was "significantly below expectations," Barclays Capital analyst Felicia Hendrix said in a research note, hurt by a stronger dollar and its luxury segment. Starwood has six luxury brands and more than half its rooms are abroad.
- Still the earnings beat boosted investors' confidence in the hotel sector, said Patrick Scholes, an analyst for FBR Capital Markets. "Positive investor sentiment is trumping fundamentals right now," he said. (and that pretty much sums it up!)
- Starwood said it expects second-quarter earnings per share of 14 cents to 20 cents excluding special items.
- Citing "significant uncertainty" in the global economy, it said it would be difficult to provide any definitive outlook for the second half of the year. (sounds familiar but not to worry, the stock market knows all and is the efficient discounting mechanism)
- The company said full-year RevPAR was tracking 6 percentage points below the baseline scenario the company discussed in its January earnings conference call. (time for more chop, chop, chop)
Allright, those are the two high end joints - let's look down at where the common folk of America sleep when on the road.Next, is Choice Hotels (CHH), almost reasonable (relatively speaking) @ 19x forward PE, via AP and Reuters. As the chart at the bottom shows its reasonable valuation must of been the cause of shorts NOT piling in and hence no short squeeze like the others. Only a few hundred million of debt. Via AP and Reuters
- Budget hotel chain operator Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH) posted higher-than-expected quarterly results, as cost-control efforts offset lower spending by consumers and corporations, but its second-quarter profit outlook lagged market view. (starting to sound familiar - yet company after company seems to rise on the same ole news)
- For the first quarter ended March 31, the company posted a profit of $16.3 million, or 27 cents a share, compared with $18.6 million, or 29 cents a share, a year earlier. (what? no restructuring costs to beat the analysts estimates by a much larger amount? cmon now management - play the Wall St game! A missed opportunity indeed) Analysts on average were expecting earnings of 25 cents a share, before items, on revenue of $113.3 million, according to Reuters Estimates.
- Revenue fell 11 percent to $114.2 million.
- The company's domestic system-wide revenue per available room (RevPAR), a key gauge of hotel performance that reflects rates and occupancy, fell 10.3 percent in the quarter. It expects second-quarter RevPar to fall 16 percent.
- Choice Hotels expects second-quarter earnings of 41 cents a share compared with analyst estimates of 43 cents a share.
- $1.68 (v analysts $1.62)
Last, the fun one and while some of these luxury guys put in 100% gains since the March low - that's nothing. I wish I had been prescient enough to put my chips on Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) - I need to go figure out why they were so low but (perhaps the $3.8B in debt but debt seems to not be a problem anymore for any bull) as the forward PE is only 7ish even after the monster run off the lows. I have not followed the story with this company that specifically so I am curious what the threat to life was in February. Via AP and Reuters- Wyndham Worldwide Corp (WYN) reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday, helped by broad cost cuts, particularly in its time-share business, sending its shares up 38 percent.
- The world's biggest time-share operator posted a first-quarter net profit of $45 million, or 25 cents a share. A year ago, the former Cendant Corp unit posted a net profit of $42 million, or 24 cents a share. (now that's impressive - flat year over year) Excluding restructuring costs, earnings were $74 million, or 41 cents per share. Wall Street analysts on average were expecting 36 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates. (aha! restructuring costs - they don't count aka broken record)
- Wyndham said revenue dropped 11 percent to $901 million, hurt by faltering demand and the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar. Analysts had expected first-quarter revenue to be about $825.6 million, according to Reuters Estimates.
- Sales in the time-share business fell 39 percent, driven by Wyndham's efforts to reduce properties in that segment. The company has roughly 7,000 properties and 21 percent of its rooms are abroad.
- Total expenses fell 12.4 percent from a year ago with the most significant cost cuts coming from Wyndham's vacation time-share business, where the company had to cut "a large number" of marketing and sales employees, Holmes said.
- "We've cut costs everywhere," Wyndham Chief Executive Steve Holmes said in an interview with Reuters. "We run a fairly lean shop to begin with but in an environment like this we have to take a look at everything."
- In its hotel group, revenue per available room -- a key gauge of a hotelier's performance -- fell 11.3 percent, excluding the impact of foreign currency.
- "We do see signs that there is less pressure," Holmes said
Guidance?
- The company said it expected second-quarter adjusted earnings to be between 36 cents and 41 cents and reiterated its full-year earnings outlook. Wyndham reaffirmed its guidance for the full-year 2009. The company continues to expect adjusted earnings between $1.61 and $1.85 per share and revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion.
- At the Reuters Summit in March, Holmes said worldwide revenue per available room (RevPAR) would fall between 6 percent and 10 percent. (not too shabby) "Based on what we saw in the first quarter, we probably lean toward the 10 percent than the 6 percent decline," he said. "We're seeing a continuation of pressure." (shhh... wrong words - have to destroy the short; you know what to say next)
Problem?
- On Tuesday, Moody's Investor Services cut Wyndham corporate credit rating two notches into junk status on expectations that weak demand would pressure earnings into 2010.
Magic.
To exploit this fact that Uncle Ben can act like a Hoover and suck up all debt and take the losses in the future when people's attention is focused on the recovery of 2011.... Wyndam is looking mighty fine as an investment vehicle.
- "We sense there had still been considerable skepticism about the sustainability of Wyndham's timeshare earnings heading into the report," said Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Woronka in a note to investors. "We think the main question now is, after right-sizing the business for a severe downturn, will Wyndham be able to "re-grow" its businesses accretively in a recovery?"
- Goldman Sachs analyst Steven Kent expressed some surprise that Wyndham did not lower its guidance, in light of further deterioration in the overall economy. "However," he said, "this could be a sign of the strength in Wyndham's overall business model, but mostly in the stable franchising and vacation exchange and rental businesses."
No positions but chomping at the bit at Wyndham if the market is ever allowed to go down again for more than 3 hours per government/Goldman Sachs decreeANOTHER BOUNCE IN APRIL
April was another solid month of recovery for the capital and commodity markets, building on March's rise. There's still a long way to go to repair the damage of September through February. Indeed, it'll probably take years for all the asset classes to return to old highs. But for the moment, there's reason to be optimistic, if only tenuously.
The big winner last month: REITs, which surged nearly 33%. Even so, this slice of the capital markets has been so heavily battered over the past year or so that even an extraordinary run does little to reverse the damage.
The lone loser in our horse race was inflation-indexed Treasuries, which slipped 1.9% in April, although for the year so far the asset class is up 3.6%. Otherwise, everything posted a gain. Our passive global market portfolio index climbed a robust 6.6% last month, an improvement on March's roughly 5% advance. Year-to-date, GMPI is off by a fractional -0.5% vs. -1.4% for U.S. stocks, based on the Russell 3000.
It's tempting to think that the danger's passed. Not quite. As we explain in this soon-to-be-published May issue of The Beta Investment Report, strategic-minded investors should remain wary. Yes, expected returns look enticing. But there are still many economic and financial challenges ahead and no one should underestimate the potential for short-term volatility.
In short, these are productive days for designing and managing asset allocation, but you'll have to work hard to generate and keep every basis point of risk premium from here on out. That starts with maintaining steely discipline. Last we checked, there are still no free lunches available.
S&P Futures
While it is possible we could see a decline, I suspect that we are going up to the 900 area. There is decent support around the 853 to 855 area (could be a good area to enter for a possible swing trade to the upside. ) But, I'm still not convinced it will pull back that far today. Higher areas to enter would be between 865-860

U.S. Morning Call for Friday, May 1, 2009
Overnight Global News
June S&Ps are up +3.90 points (+0.45%) while the UK FTSE Index is down (-0.06%). The European and most Asian markets were closed for the Labour Day Hoiiday. Japan closed (+1.69%) and Australia (-0.29%). The Fed is postponing the release of stress tests on the biggest US banks until the end of next week, instead of their originally scheduled release May 4, as bank executives debate preliminary findings with examiners. At least six of the 19 largest US banks require additional capital, according to preliminary results of the tests. UK manufacturing contracted at the slowest pace in eight months after the Apr UK PMI manufacturing index rose a larger-than-expected +3.4 to 42.9, showing the British economy is pulling out of its downward spiral that saw its Q1 GDP contract by the most since 1979. The Japanese yen fell to a 2-week low against the dollar after Japan's unemployment rate in Mar jumped +0.4 to 4.8%, a four-year high and the biggest one-month increase since 1967. Japan's job prospects are also getting worse as the job-to-applicant ratio in Mar plunged to 0.52 from 0.59, the lowest in seven years. Mar Japan household spendng fell -0.4% m/m, a record thirteenth consecutive monthly decline, while wages plunged -3.7% y/y, the fastest drop in more than six years, indicating any recovery in the world's second-largest economy is likely to be weak. The Apr China purchasing manager's index climbed +1.1 to 53.5, the second straight month that China's manufacturing has expanded, as government stimulus spending fuels a recovery in the world's third-biggest economy. India's exports plunged a record 33% in Mar y/y, the largest monthly decline since data began in 1995, and the sixth consecutive monthly drop as the global recession hurts demand for India's products.Overnight U.S. Stock News
- June S&Ps this morning are up +3.90 points. The US stock market yesterday rallied sharply early but failed to maintain its gains and finished mixed (Dow -0.22%, S&P 500 -0.10%, Nasdaq Composite +0.31%). The S&P 500 Index posted a 3-1/2 month high before closing lower.
- Bearish factors for stock prices yesterday included (1) the bankruptcy filing by Chrysler after the third-biggest US automaker failed to restructure debts will all of its creditors, (2) the weaker-than-expected US Mar personal income and spending reports, (3) the rise in US weekly continuing unemployment claims to a record high for the thirteenth consecutive week, (4) weakness in energy producers which were dragged lower as Exxon fell -2.6% after posting its biggest profit drop since 2002, and (5) the jump in the 10-year T-note yield to a 5-month high of 3.16%.
- Bullish factors for stock prices yesterday included (1) the larger-than-expected rise in the Apr Chicago purchasing managers' index to a 7-month high, (2) speculation that the FDIC may offer investors financing to buy distressed US bank assets without requiring them to share an equity stake with the Treasury, (3) the prediction from Fidelity International that low valuations indicate stock advances that began in March are the start of a bull market and that financial shares are poised to drive recent gains higher, and (4) a rally in solar stocks led by First Solar which surged 23% after reporting its Q1 profit more than tripled as production costs fell and utilities increased demand for renewable energy.
Today's U.S. Market Focus
- June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -3.5 ticks. June T-note prices yesterday declined for the third consecutive day and closed down -6 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 5-month high of 3.16%. Bearish factors for T-note prices yesterday included (1) the unexpected fall in US weekly unemployment claims (-14,000 to 631,000 versus expectations of unchanged at 640,000), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Apr Chicago purchasing managers' index (+8.7 to a 7-month high of 40.1 versus expectations of +3.6 to 35.0), (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as interbank lending markets improved with the TED spread (Eurodollar rates minus T-bills) narrowing to a 10-1/2 month low of 89 bp, and (4) continued disappointment that the Fed didn't expand its program of purchasing Treasuries and mortgage securities after Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected climb in US weekly continuing unemployment claims to a record for the thirteenth consecutive week (+133,000 to 6.271 million versus expectations of +63,000 to 6.200 million), (2) the smaller-than-expected gain in the Q1 employment cost index which rose by the smallest amount since the data series began in Q4 1996 (+0.3% versus expectations of +0.5%), and (3) the larger-than-expected declines in US Mar personal income and spending (income -0.3% versus expectatons of -0.2% and spending -0.2% versus expectations of -0.1%).
- The dollar index is weaker this morning with the dollar/yen +0.68 yen and the euro/dollar +0.61 cents. The jump in the Mar Japanese unemployment rate to a four-year high of 4.8% is undercutting the yen which fell to a 2-week low against the dollar today. The dollar index yesterday overcame a 3-week low and closed higher. Bullish factors for the dollar yesterday included (1) the drop in the yen to a 1-week low against the dollar as the surge in global equity markets encouraged the yen carry trade, (2) the smallest gain in the US Q1 employment cost index since the series began in 1996, and (3) the greater-than-expected increase in the Mar Euro-Zone unemployment rate which rose +0.2 to a 3-1/2 year high of 8.9% and put more pressure on the ECB to cut rates or initiate a quantitative easing at its policy meeting next week. Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) reduced demand for the safety of the dollar as the upward momentum in the stock market continued, and (2) comments from ECB Council member Ewald Nowotny that he sees "green shoots" in the Euro-Zone economy and doesn't expect any major negative effects from the swine flu outbreak.
- June crude oil prices this morning are down -6 cents a barrel and June gasoline is -0.85 cent a gallon. June crude oil prices yesterday gyrated on both sides of unchanged and finally closed up +$0.15 a barrel. June gasoline closed up +1.95 cents a gallon. Bullish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included (1) the surge in the S&P 500 Index to a 3-1/2 month high on optimism the worst of the recession may be over, which may increase energy demand, and (2) the prediction from tanker tracker Oil Movements that OPEC will cut crude oil shipments by -0.9% in the four weeks ending May 16, reflecting seasonal weakening of crude oil demand as well as falling production. Bearish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included (1) the stronger dollar, (2) the prediction from oil analyst Stephen Schork that crude oil prices may stay below $55 a barrel this year and trade in a $45-$55 a barrel range as "the world is swimming in oil and the global recession persists," and (3) fears that global energy demand will drop if the World Health Organization declares the swine-flu outbreak a pandemic
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings
reports (confirmed releases for companies with market caps above $5.0
bln listed by mkt cap) CVX-Chevron (BEST earnings consensus $0.81 per
share), MA-Mastercard ($2.61), AGN-Allergan ($0.54), SPG-Simon Property
Group ($0.25), AOC-Aon Corp. ($0.88), PPL-PPL Corp. ($0.47),
ED-Consolidated Edison ($0.85), RSG-Republic Services ($0.30),
CLX-Clorox ($0.92), FO-Fortune Brands ($0.28)
Global Financial Calendar
| Friday 5/1/2009 | |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| 0945 ET | St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at the annual meeting of the Arkansas Bankers Association. |
| 1000 ET | Final-Apr U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected unchanged at 61.9, early-April +4.6 to 61.9. |
| 1000 ET | Mar factory orders expected 0.6%, Feb +1.8%. |
| 1000 ET | Apr ISM manufacturing index expected +2.1 to 38.4, Mar +0.5 to 36.3. Apr ISM prices paid expected +3.0 to 34.0, Mar +2.0 to 31.0. |
| n/a | Apr U.S. total vehicle sales expected 9.7 million, Mar 9.9 million. Apr US domestic vehicle sales expected 7.1 million, Mar 7.1 million. |
| Japan | |
| 0100 ET | Apr Japan vehicle sales, Mar 31.5% y/y. |
| United Kingdom | |
| 0430 ET | Mar UK net consumer credit expected +0.1 billion pounds, Feb 0.2 billion pounds. |
| 0430 ET | Mar UK mortgage approvals expected +40,000, Feb +38,000. |
| 0430 ET | Revised Mar UK M4 money supply, previous unchanged m/m and +17.6% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | Apr UK PMI manufacturing expected +0.9 to 40.0, Mar +4.4 to 39.1. |
| Germany | |
| n/a | German markets closed for Labour Day. |
| France | |
| n/a | French markets closed for Labour Day. |
Unemployment Rate for PhD Economists = 0%
Economics has long been called the dismal science. The general economic outlook today is indeed dismal, but that doesn't mean job prospects in the field are. "There is no unemployment among Ph.D.s in economics," declares John Siegfried, a Vanderbilt University professor.
Just do the math, and you'll see why: In the current academic year, the American Economics Association has listed approximately 2,200 job openings worldwide�"but U.S. universities will grant only 950 Ph.D.s in economics.
Universities themselves may cut back, but economists remain in demand in government, business, and nonprofits and as consultants or policy analysts. "Depending on the program, about half the graduates stay in academics, and the other half go into the private sector, government, or places like the World Bank or International Monetary Fund," says William Collins, director of graduate studies in economics at Vanderbilt.
Some of the most famous economics Ph.D.s straddle both worlds; think of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, and Obama advisers Christina Romer (who will chair the White House Council of Economic Advisers) and Laura D'Andrea Tyson.
~US News and World Report article "For Economists, a Moment in the Sun"
Economics Ph.D. program rankings
HT: Tom Hemphill
MrSwing Lite - Swing Trading Picks - 05-01-2009
Some Potential Swing Trading Opportunities for today...
These stocks will be monitored by you every day!!! Follow the master plan and you will be on your way to learn to trade stocks like a PRO... enjoy...
The results are generated by my stock scanner. Only the first 5 results are displayed here for every scan.
For full results, subscribe now to StockScanPRO for 30 days FREE, then only pay $9.99 a month!.
SECRETS TO GREAT RESULTS:
CONFIDENCE - PATIENCE- FOCUS - DISCIPLINE
Long Swings
Window
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000)
and
(close() > 7)
and
(adx(10) > 30)
and
(pdi(10) > mdi(10))
and
(high() < sma(close,5))
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
Displaying 5 results of 10:
| EXR | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| GIL | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| JLL | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| JOE | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| ORB | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
4 results:
| ACOR | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| JAVA | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| LAMR | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| NUAN | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Swings
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(force_index(3) <= 0)
and
(force_index(13) >= 0)
and
(adx(10) > 30)
and
(high() < high()[-1])
and
(high()[-1] < high()[-2])
and
(close() > sma(close,10))
and
(close() > sma(close,20))
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
Error: Invalid syntax.
File '.\stockdata\bigstockdata#P#p29.MYD' not found (Errcode: 22)
Results for NSDQ
0 results:
1-2-3-4
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
((adx(10) + adx(20))/2 > 30)
and
(pdi(10)+pdi(20) > mdi(10) + mdi(20))
and
(low() < low()[-1])
and
(low()[-1] < low()[-2])
and
(high() < high()[-1])
and
(high()[-1] < high()[-2])
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
2 results:
| MV | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| WWW | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
4 results:
| BWLD | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| PFCB | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| SPLS | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| TRLG | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Cross
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)and(close()
> 12)and(sma(close,5)>sma(close,15))and(close() <
sma(close,5))and(close() > sma(close,15))and(high() <
high()[-1])and(close() > open())
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
2 results:
| KGC | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| PCL | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
2 results:
| ACOR | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| GOLD | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Triangle
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(close() > sma(close,20))
and
(high()[-2] > high()[-1])
and
(high()[-2] > high())
and
(low()[-2] < low()[-1])
and
(low()[-2] < low())
and
(high()[-1] > high())
and
(low()[-1] < low())
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
Error: Invalid syntax.
File '.\stockdata\bigstockdata#P#p28.MYD' not found (Errcode: 22)
Results for NSDQ
Error: Invalid syntax.
File '.\stockdata\bigstockdata#P#p28.MYD' not found (Errcode: 22)
Reverse
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)and(close()
> 12)and(high()[-2] > high()[-1])and(high()[-1] >
high())and(low()[-2] > low()[-1])and(low()[-1] >
low())and(close()[-2] <= open()[-2])and(close()[-1] <=
open()[-1])and(close() >= open())and(volume() > 1.5 *
sma(volume,20))
Results for NYAR
1 results:
| EEV | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NYSE
0 results:
Results for NSDQ
0 results:
Breakouts
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
> 200000)and(close() > 7)and(high() >=
max(high,40))and(high()[-1] >= max(high,40)[-1])and(volume() >
1.5 * sma(volume,20))and(close() > open())and(volume()[-1] <
sma(volume,20))and( (close() - low()) >= (0.75 *(high() - low())) )
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
5 results:
| DOW | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| HOS | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| JCP | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| OGE | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| BML-PRH | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
1 results:
| WFMI | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Revival
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(close()[-1] - low()[-1] <= 0.1 *(high()[-1] - low()[-1]))
and
(close() - low() >= 0.95 *(high() - low()))
and
(close() > sma(close,15))
and
(close() > sma(close,50))
Results for NYAR
1 results:
| AGG | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NYSE
0 results:
Results for NSDQ
0 results:
Reversals
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 200000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(low() <= min(low,40)[-1])
and
(volume() > 2*sma(volume,20))
and
(close() > open())
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
0 results:
Results for NSDQ
1 results:
| ABAX | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Short Swings
Cross
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)>=500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(sma(close,5)
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
Displaying 5 results of 18:
| ACM | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| ADS | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| CNL | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| CXW | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| D | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
4 results:
| BIIB | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| CTXS | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| MYGN | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| PBCT | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
1-2-3-4
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
>= 500000) and (close() > 12) and ((adx(10) + adx(20))/2 > 30)
and (pdi(10) + pdi(20) < mdi(10) + mdi(20)) and (low() >
low()[-1]) and (low()[-1] > low()[-2]) and (high() > high()[-1])
and (high()[-1] > high()[-2])
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
0 results:
Results for NSDQ
1 results:
| MYGN | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Swings
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
>= 500000) and (close() > 12) and (force_index(3) >= 0) and
(force_index(13) <= 0) and (adx(10) > 30) and (low() >
low()[-1]) and (low()[-1] > low()[-2]) and (close() <
sma(close,10)) and (close() < sma(close,20))
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
2 results:
| BG | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| UPS | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
0 results:
Window
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20)
>= 500000) and (close() > 7) and (adx(10) > 30) and (pdi(10)
< mdi(10)) and (low() > sma(close,5))
Results for NYAR
1 results:
| DBB | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NYSE
5 results:
| AF | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| BF-B | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| CPN | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| MRK | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| RGA | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
1 results:
| MYGN | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Revival
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(close()[-1] - low()[-1] >= 0.9 *(high()[-1] - low()[-1]))
and
(close() - low() <= 0.1*(high()-low()))
and
(close() < sma(close,15))
and
(close() < sma(close,50))
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
4 results:
| BK | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| LAZ | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| THG | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| WTR | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
2 results:
| GBCI | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| NITE | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Reverse
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(high()[-2] < high()[-1])
and
(high()[-1] < high())
and
(low()[-2] < low()[-1])
and
(low()[-1] < low())
and
(close()[-2] >= open()[-2])
and
(close()[-1] >= open()[-1])
and
(close() <= open())
and
(volume() > 1.5*sma(volume,20))
Results for NYAR
Displaying 5 results of 7:
| EPP | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| EWA | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| EWC | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| IJH | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| IVV | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NYSE
Displaying 5 results of 17:
| ARW | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| ATO | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| CMI | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| CVD | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| DNB | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
Displaying 5 results of 9:
| CMCSA | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| CMCSK | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| COCO | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| HOLX | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| JRCC | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
Triangle
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 500000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(close() < sma(close,20))
and
(high()[-2] > high()[-1])
and
(high()[-2] > high())
and
(low()[-2] < low()[-1])
and
(low()[-2] < low())
and
(high()[-1] > high())
and
(low()[-1] < low())
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
2 results:
| ALK | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| X | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
0 results:
Breakdowns
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 200000)
and
(close() > 7)
and
(low() <= min(low,40))
and
(low()[-1] <= min(low,40)[-1])
and
(volume() > 2*sma(volume,20))
and
(close() < open())
and
(volume()[-1] < sma(volume,20))
and
(close()-low() <= 0.25*(high()-low()))
Results for NYAR
0 results:
Results for NYSE
0 results:
Results for NSDQ
0 results:
Reversals
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
(sma(volume,20) >= 200000)
and
(close() > 12)
and
(high() >= max(high,40)[-1])
and
(volume() > 2*sma(volume,20))
and
(close() < open())
Results for NYAR
4 results:
| EPP | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| EWA | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| IVV | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| VDE | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NYSE
Displaying 5 results of 11:
| CCI | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| CRR | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| DTK | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| EQT | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| ITC | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
Displaying 5 results of 9:
| BECN | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| CMCSK | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| FNFG | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| MORN | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| NBTB | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
New Highs and Lows - 05-01-2009
New Year Highs & Lows...
The results are generated by my stock scanner. Only the first 5 results are displayed here for every scan.
For full results, subscribe now to StockScanPRO for 30 days FREE, then only pay $9.99 a month!.
SECRETS TO GREAT RESULTS:
CONFIDENCE - PATIENCE- FOCUS - DISCIPLINE
New Year Highs
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
high() >= max (high,250)
Results for NYAR
Displaying 5 results of 105:
| AAB-WS | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| AFI-PRJ | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| ANJ | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| ARE-PRA | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| ARI | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NYSE
Displaying 5 results of 13:
| ADF-WD | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| AGP | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| ALC | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| AZO | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| BTH | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
Displaying 5 results of 170:
| ABMCW | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| AJZST | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| ALZST | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| AMZST | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| ANEN | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
New Year Lows
Scan Code From www.StockScanPRO.com:
low() <= min (low,250)
Results for NYAR
Displaying 5 results of 435:
| AAB-WS | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| ACB | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| ACK | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| ADE | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
| AFI-PRJ | NYAR | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NYSE
Displaying 5 results of 93:
| ADF-WD | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| ALP-PRO | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| AWC | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| BIO-B | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
| BMY-PR | NYSE | 4/30/2009 |
Results for NSDQ
Displaying 5 results of 316:
| AAME | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| AAZST | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| ABMCW | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |
| ACBA | NSDQ | 4/29/2009 |
| ACFC | NSDQ | 4/30/2009 |

