Thursday, January 01, 2009

 

2009 Currency Forecasts

By Kathy Lien

2008 has been a crazy year in the foreign exchange markets and hopefully 2009 will bring more steady times for the global economy as a whole. The tremendous amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that central banks around the world have doled out should begin to have their effect in the second half of the year. Countries that will be the first to rise from the ashes are the ones whose currencies have lost the most value in 2008. In contrast, the countries whose currencies soared will have a much more difficult time recovering.

In 2009, we will be celebrating the 10 year anniversary of the Euro and in January, people around the world will cheer the inauguration of brand new US President. Obama embodies change and hopefully that change will help to pull the US economy out of recession.

Make sure you read my 2009 currency forecasts. I talk about what I expect fundamentally and technically for the following currencies in the year ahead.

US dollar forecast
Euro forecast
British pound forecast
Japanese Yen forecast
Australian dollar forecast
New Zealand dollar forecast
Canadian dollar forecast
Swiss Franc forecast

Also, I will be soaking up some sun in the Bahamas from Jan 2 - Jan 6, so there will be no new blog posts until January 7th.


 

A Technical Look at the 1987 Stock Market Crash

By Corey Rosenbloom

I was scanning some different periods for interesting chart patterns and wanted to share some insights on the structure of the 1987 stock market ‘crash’ in the S&P 500 Index.  Let’s look at the chart of 1987 and then see the few years preceding this move with an Elliott Wave count overlaid on price.

1987 Daily Chart:

Without going into intricate detail, there are a few points I wanted to highlight.

First, notice how price continually respected the rising 20 day EMA both on the upside and downside.  Moving averages, particularly in trending environments, can provide opportunities to enter on retracements against the prevailing trend with a relatively tight stop-loss parameter.  Though it doesn’t always “work,” the structure can be used to supplement other entry and exit strategies.

The moving average orientation throughout most of 1987 was in the “Most Bullish Orientation” possible as price continued to ‘bounce’ off the 20 and 50 EMAs.

However, this structure changed in September.  Price formed a slight negative momentum divergence going into the 1987 price high in late August.  Price then retraced, breaking EMA support just as it had in April & May, which only serves as a warning rather than an official “trend change” signal.

Price formed a lower high just shy of 330 in early October was was a serious warning sign as price then re-broke beneath the confluence support of the 20 and 50 EMAs - another serious warning sign.  The key area to watch was 310, which would have put in a new swing low and officially turned the trend to the downside (having now made a lower high and a lower low).

We broke 310 in mid-October AND the 20 and 50 period EMAs “crossed bearishly” which officially put the ‘nail in the coffin’ of the prevailing uptrend on the daily chart.  Price then retraced to test the confluence crossover zone - I’m calling it a “Cradle Trade” though I’d love a better name for this structure - just before collapsing two days prior to the massive ’shocking’ sell-off that wiped out so many accounts at this time.

Oh, a note - once price fails at the “Cradle Resistance” or “Confluence Resistance” area after having broken beneath the 20 and 50 EMAs, the next automatic target is the rising 200 day SMA which was achieved… and then shattered two days later.

What happened next?  The collapse.

Was it forecast by technical analysis?  No, but the odds had officially shifted to the downside, as price had officially reversed its trend from up to down, having formed a lower high and a lower low; broke beneath the 20 and 50 day EMAs; then failed to break above confluence resistance at the “Cradle Trade” zone (Confluence Resistance where the 20 and 50 EMAs cross).

At a minimum, technical analysis warned of greater downside odds than upside odds, though again it’s easier to anticipate the possible direction of a move rather than the magnitude of the move.

As it turned out, price collapsed to the rising 200 week moving average which also happened to be a confluence Fibonacci target, because index value 220 represented the 61.8% retracement of a significnant swing low in 1984.

In the next post, I’ll examine the weekly chart structure and overlay an Elliott Wave Count to help put the 1987 ‘crash’ into a bit more perspective.

Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com

Receive updates from Afraid to Trade now on Twitter:  http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade


 

No Bailout Necessary, Just Reduce Punitive Tariffs to Save and Create More U.S. Jobs

By Dr. Mark J. Perry
Tariffs are usually used to protect domestic industries from more efficient foreign competitors. But domestic firms also buy inputs, raw materials, supplies, parts and inventory FROM foreign producers, and in fact more than half of U.S. imports are industrial supplies and parts, and NOT finished consumer goods. In that case, tariffs are a tax on the inputs of domestic businesses and can put them at a significant competitive disadvantage.

Case in point: There is a punitive tariff of up to 17.2% on an imported specific micro-denier suede fabric used extensively by Mississippi furniture manufacturers Lane, Bauhaus, and H.M. Richards. This tariff is about to be removed, saving each of these three firms more than $1 million annually, and saving close to 1,000 jobs in NE Mississippi.

Read about it here, here and here.

HT: Taxinging Tennessee

 

Mortgage Rates Fall to Record Low Level

By Dr. Mark J. Perry

30-year fixed rate mortgages closed out the year at 5.14% (data here, see graph above), the lowest rate on record (data back to 1964 here). Falling mortgage rates and falling home prices will be important factors in the real estate market's recovery in 2009.

 

2009 British Pound GBP/USD Forecast

By Kathy Lien

How Did the British Pound Trade in 2008?

The British pound was one of the worst performing currencies in 2008. It fell to a 6 year low against the US dollar and record low against the Euro in addition to selling off against every other G10 currency. The overwhelming weakness in the currency is a direct reflection of the impact that the credit crisis had on the UK economy. In the month of December, many currencies recovered against the US dollar, but unfortunately the British pound was not one of them. Although the pound could continue to weaken in the first quarter, the government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus should help the country recover towards the end of 2009.

Official Recession in 2009

Without two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the UK economy is not technically in a recession but that should change in the first quarter of 2009, when the 2008 Q4 GDP numbers are released. Growth has been slowing materially and the weakness is reflected in the British pound. GDP growth fell by 0.6 percent in the third quarter, the largest decline in 18 years. The housing market and the financial sector have been the engine of growth in UK for the past few years and both blew up in 2008. Unfortunately the worst is probably not over for the 2 key components of the UK economy, particularly following the Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. In addition to losses suffered from the subprime mortgage crisis, many large hedge funds and European banks invested with Madoff’s. In 2009, they will be forced to write down those losses and deal with what could be pretty severe consequences for the financial sector as a whole. With the financial and housing market sectors expected to remain weak in the first half of 2009 and layoffs predicted to rise, GDP growth could fall as much as 2 percent next year. Although we believe that the country could be one of the first to recovery from the global economic downturn, this will not before more pain is felt in the UK economy. The severity of the UK recession will be largely dependent upon how quickly the credit markets are restored in 2009.

Inflation to Fall Back to 2%

Even though falling oil prices has driven inflation lower in the UK, the annualized pace of consumer price growth is still well above the central bank’s 2 percent target and even higher than their 3 percent upper limit. The latest data is for the month of October and according to that report, consumer prices rose 4.1 percent yoy. Despite the high level of inflation, the central bank has pretty much abandoned the inflation target and shifted their focus back to growth because they believe that the slowdown in the economy will naturally drive inflation lower. They believe inflation could fall back to 2 percent as early as the first quarter.

More Rate Cuts in First Half of 2009

Next to the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has been the most aggressive central bank in 2008, having cut interest rates by 350bp to 2 percent, the lowest level in 57 years. Despite the massive interest rate cuts, tax cuts and other fiscal stimulus, the Bank of England remains committed to doing all that it takes to prevent a recession from sparking deflation. Central Bank Governor King believes that the economy will contract in 2009 and given his pledge UK interest rates could fall by another 100bp in the first half of the year. Although zero interest rates are not expected in the UK, interest rates will fall below 2 percent and until the Bank of England is done easing, the British pound may remain weak.

EUR/GBP at Parity

The sell-off of the British pound in the first few months of the year could drive EUR/GBP to parity. If that happens, it would be the first time ever that one Euro would be worth more than one British pound. This could not come at a better time than 2009, when the Euro celebrates its 10-year anniversary. In this past decade, the currency has risen from ashes to become more valuable than the 2 primary reserve currencies in the world. Although many Britons may be alarmed at the weakness of their exchange rate, the Bank of England will probably not step in to stop it from falling. Instead, the BoE will revel in the stimulative effects of a weak currency. There are already reports of Europeans from the Eurozone flocking to the UK for their holidays. The weakness of the British pound against both the US dollar and the Euro are key ingredients for an economic recovery.

Keep an Eye Out for a Recovery

Although the UK economy still faces many risks in 2009, there is hope. Consumer spending has been pretty resilient with November retail sales rising for the first time in 3 months. If the global economy begins to recover, we expect the UK economy to outperform its peers thanks to the Bank of England’s proactiveness. The currency has sold off significantly, providing additional stimulus for the battered economy. Even if there is no full-blown recovery, the UK economy is much further long in their slowdown than the Eurozone. Therefore if we see sharply weaker growth in the Eurozone economy in 2009, expectations for more aggressive ECB interest rate cuts may be all that the British pound needs to recover against the Euro. As for the US dollar, the recovery could come sooner if the quantitative easing forces the greenback lower. When the UK economy begins to recover, so will its currency.


 

2009 Euro Forecast - EUR/USD

By Kathy Lien

How Did the Euro Trade in 2008?

Exactly one year ago, the Euro was trading at approximately 1.47 against the US dollar, 5 percent higher than current levels. In 2008, this type of move is considered mild especially when compared to the Euro’s 20 percent rally against the British pound and New Zealand dollar and 27 percent decline against the Japanese Yen. However the mild year over year change in the EUR/USD masks a tremendous amount of volatility during the year. In the first half of 2008, the EUR/USD soared to a record high above 1.60. After that, it fell 22 percent to a 2 year low but recovered more than half of those losses in the month of December.

Eurozone’s to Underperform in 2009, Expect a Prolonged Recession

It is no secret that 2009 will be a tough year for many countries, but things will be particularly difficult in the Eurozone. Every major central bank has cut interest aggressively, driving their currencies significantly lower in 2008. The ECB on the other hand has been reluctant to follow suit, leaving the Euro only marginally lower for the year. Although the Eurozone is in a recession, growth has not been nearly as weak as the US. Annualized GDP growth in the Eurozone during the third quarter was +0.6 percent, compared to -0.5 percent in the US. The Eurozone’s outperformance in 2008 however could be short-lived as the central bank forecasts a 1 percent contraction in growth next year. As an export dependent region, the strength of the Euro will make a recovery difficult. German companies have already scaled back production as global demand eases. Looking ahead, unemployment is expected to rise, slowing consumer spending and forcing the ECB to continue to cut interest rates. If German unemployment hits 9 percent, we could easily see Eurozone rates hit 1 percent.

ECB Could Become One of the Most Aggressive Central Banks in 2009


Next to the Bank of Japan, the ECB has been the least aggressive central bank in 2008, having cut interest rates by only 150bp to 2.5 percent (counting the 25bp rate hike, their total easing is 175bp YTD). Compared to the 400bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve and the 350bp rate cut from the Bank of England, the ECB’s nimble move singlehandedly prevented the Euro from collapsing alongside the British pound, New Zealand and Australian dollars. However in face of slowing growth, it will be difficult for the ECB to hold onto their conservative monetary policy stance �" they are expected to cut interest rates by 100bp in 2009. The ECB was behind the curve in 2008 and the biggest risk for the Euro in 2009 is whether the central bank’s sluggish policies catch up to them. In December, the EUR/USD soared on speculation that the ECB may refrain from cutting interest rates in January. At a time when everyone who still has room to cut interest rates are cutting them, a pause by the ECB could spur a EUR/USD rally above 1.45. However, with that in mind the ECB first hinted about pausing when the EUR/USD was trading at 1.25. The 13 percent rally in the currency pair since then increases the chance of a rate cut because a stronger currency hurts the economy. But a pause does not mean an end to the easing cycle. Beyond January, we still believe that significantly slower growth will force the ECB to cut interest rates by another 100bp. More importantly, the ECB will be cutting interest rates at a time when the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are done easing. If the Eurozone underperforms the US economy in the second half of the year and the ECB is still cutting interest rates, a prolonged recession and prolonged easing could lead to a major reversal in the EUR/USD in 2009. Only if the economy proves to be resilient or if another major shock hits the US economy can we see a new high in the Euro.

Inflation Could Remain above ECB’s Target in 2009

One of the primary reasons why the ECB has been reluctant to ease rates aggressively in 2008 is inflation. The central bank has a 2 percent inflation target and consumer prices remained above the target throughout the year. In fact, the ECB became so alarmed in July when annualized CPI soared to a high of 4 percent that they raised interest rates by 25bp. Although the fall in oil prices has driven inflation lower by the largest amount in 20 years, CPI is still expected to remain above the ECB’s target in 2009.

Be Careful of a Run on the Dollar

Another major risk next year is a run on the US dollar. The global slowdown has forced many central banks around the world to become internally focused. This means that any excess money will be spent on spurring growth domestically instead of funding the US deficit. With next to zero yield, a deteriorating balance sheet and the risk of a weaker dollar eroding the notional value of any US investments, there are almost no reasons for foreign investors to load up on US debt. Having been burned badly by investments in Fannie and Freddie Mac, sovereign wealth funds like China have become skeptical of buying more US paper. According to an editorial in the state owned newspaper, China Daily, “China’s increased purchase of U.S. Treasury securities should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the assumption that the U.S. can borrow its way out of the current financial crisis.” If dollar demand continues to wane, it is another factor that could drive the dollar lower in the first half of 2009.

Political Risk

There will be 2 elections in Europe in next year�" the election for the new Chancellor of Germany and elections for European Parliament. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to take on her foreign minister Frank Walter Steinmeier. With an economy in turmoil, it is difficult to tell who will win but if it is another close election like one in 2005, we could see the Euro come under selling pressure. When both Merkel and Schroeder declared a victory in September 2005, the EUR/USD plunged as political uncertainty hit the currency. The European Parliament elections in June will be the largest transnational democratic election in history with over 700 members set to be voted in by 515 million EU citizens. For the currency market, the only implication is the possibility of legislative activity coming to a standstill in the spring as the European Parliament prepares for the election.


 

RNCOS Releases a New Report- Booming Consumer Electronics Market in India

By Shushmul Maheshwari

RNCOS has recently added a new Market Research Report titled, “Booming Consumer Electronics Market in India” to its report gallery. India has an increasingly affluent middle class population that, on the back of rapid economic growth, has made the country’s consumer electronics industry highly dynamic. The industry has been witnessing significant growth in recent years due to several factors, such as retail boom, growing disposable income and availability of easy finance schemes. But still, the consumer electronics goods, like refrigerators, microwave and washing machines, have low penetration in the country, representing vast room for future growth. This is attracting many foreign majors to the country, says our new research "Booming Consumer Electronics Market in India”.
 
The report finds that since the penetration of several products like TVs and refrigerators are reaching saturation in the urban areas, the markets for these products are shifting to the semi-urban and rural areas.
 
This analytical research thoroughly evaluates the Indian consumer electronics industry. It briefly discusses about the current and emerging trends in the industry, underlining the future potential areas and key issues crucial for the industry development.
 
"Booming Consumer Electronics Market in India” offers extensive research on various consumer electronics products that are broadly classified as home appliances, audio/video appliances, mobile handsets, and PC market. It provides an insight into the emerging and potential future trend in all the categories and highlights the key strategies that need to be worked upon to get success in the highly competitive industry.
 
The report thoroughly analyzes the historic performance and future prospects, offering 4-year industry forecast, of following consumer electronics products:
 
- Washing Machines (Semi-automatic & Fully Automatic)
- Television
- Set-top Box
- Refrigerator (Frost-free & Direct Cool)
- Air Conditioner
- Microwave Oven
- MP3 Players
- Digital Camera & Camcorder
- Mobile Handsets
- PCs (Desktop & Notebook)
 
Key Research Findings:
 
- Propelled by growing middle class population, changing lifestyle and rapid urbanization, the Indian consumer electronics industry is forecasted to grow at a rapid rate of 10% to 12% in the coming few years.
- Volume sales of washing machine will be driven by growth in fully automatic category during 2008-09 to 2011-12.
- The market for televisions in India is changing rapidly from the conventional CRT technology to Flat Panel Display Televisions (FPTV). Currently, the split between CRT and FPTV is around 97% and 3% respectively, and the share of FPTV is projected to increase at robust rate in near future.
- Frost-free refrigerator sales, certainly growing at a much faster pace than the direct-cool category, are anticipated to drive the Indian refrigerators market over the forecast period.
- The AC market in India is projected to grow at 30% to 35% for the coming few years.
- Driven by young population, demand for MP3 players and digital video appliances are anticipated to surge at double-digit rate in near future.
- The low penetration level of consumer electronics goods coupled with increasing preference for comfort and luxurious goods are widely attracting the foreign as well as domestic players to the industry.

About RNCOS:

RNCOS, incorporated in the year 2002, is an industry research firm. It has a team of industry experts who analyze data collected from credible sources. They provide industry insights and analysis that helps corporations to take timely and accurate business decision in today's globally competitive environment.


 

RNCOS Releases a New Report- Wind Power: Opportunities in Emerging Markets

By Shushmul Maheshwari

RNCOS has recently added a new Market Research Report titled, “Wind Power: Opportunities in Emerging Markets” to its report gallery. Power is the backbone of any economy in today’s world. But the high price of fossil fuel is forcing countries to focus on renewable energy sources. So the technologically-developed countries have replaced a considerable portion of their fossil fuel power with renewable sources to sustain their concrete growth. But, according to the report, emerging countries, who have just started their journeys, too need to maintain a robust power supply because

- Most of the emerging economies are preferred destinations for industrial and manufacturing plant set up by developed countries.

- Development of power grid connectivity has boosted up the power consumption.

- Increasing population has fuelled the power requirement in developing economies.

However, rising fossil fuel prices are challenging the growth potential of these countries. Therefore, like developed countries, these nations too are adding renewable sources in their power mix.

For most of the emerging countries, wind power seems to be the best choice as it is relatively low cost than other renewable sources and is a cleaner source of energy. With technological development, wind will become a highly competitive source for power generation, creating business opportunities for manufacturing and material innovations. This, in turn, will boost the manufacturing sector of the emerging countries.

To analyze the market potential for wind industry in the emerging economies, we have selected countries based on various aspects, like market performance and power generation sources. This report also provides a brief description on key turbine manufacturing companies present in the emerging economies.

Key Findings of the Report

- Total wind power installation in People’s Republic of China is projected to cross 100 GW by the end of 2020.

- Wind power industry will be the major focus area in India during its 11th Five Year Plan.

- By the end of 2009, wind power installation in Turkey is anticipated to reach slightly less than 1 GW.

- In 2009, Brazil’s cumulative wind power installation is likely to exceed 1 GW mark.

- It is expected that the wind power generation in Poland will go beyond 26 TWH by the end of 2020.

- Egypt’s wind power installation is projected to cross 1 GW mark in 2009.

Key Issues and Facts Analyzed in the Report

- Analysis of the power industry at country level to find out the prospects of industry growth.

- Identification of factors that are infusing growth in wind industry at country level.

- Evaluation of growth trends of wind power installation.

- Quantifying the future growth of wind power installation in each country.

Research Methodology Used in the Report

Information Sources

The information has been compiled from various authentic and reliable sources like books, newspapers, trade journals, white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, monitoring industry news and developments, and access to more than 3000 paid databases.

Analysis Method

RNCOS industry forecast and analysis is based on various macro- and microeconomic factors, sector and industry specific databases, and our in-house statistical and analytical model. This model takes into account the past and current trends in an economy, and more specifically in an industry, to bring out an objective market analysis.

Our industry experts study the relationship between various industry and economic variables to ensure the required accuracy and desired Acheck on the quality of data and information given in the report.


 

Andhra Pradesh - Center of Indian Tourism Industry

By Shushmul Maheshwari

Andhra Pradesh is the leading Indian state that attracts a large number of both domestic and international tourists and ranks first among all the states in terms of tourist arrivals, says “Indian Tourism Industry Analysis”, a new research report from RNCOS.

According to the report, the reason for attracting the highest number of tourists by Andhra Pradesh is its scenic beauty and unique amalgamation of diverse cultures. People come here to see architectural sites, heritage monuments, prosperous temples, rich flora and fauna, exotic hill stations, cascading waterfalls, sparkling lakes, lofty hills and Buddhist pagodas. Moreover, the world’s richest temple at Tirupati is one of the main attractions of Andhra Pradesh, drawing tourists from all around the globe.

Tourists with interest in primitive architectures come to Andhra Pradesh as it has remains of many famous dynasties as old as 300 BC and Buddhist centers. Furthermore, the state is distinct for its local food, cuisines, delicacies, exquisite handicrafts, vibrant festivities and hospitable nature of people that make visit to the state an unforgettable experience, as per the RNCOS report.

With over 500 tourist sites across the state, Andhra Pradesh is a booming tourist destination in India. The government has launched 68 projects in the last four years with the total investment of US$ 368.293 Million to promote its tourism industry. And 88 projects with total cost of US$ 197.561 Million have been kicked off by the private sector due to the state’s proactive role.

“Indian Tourism Industry Analysis” contains comprehensive information on the Indian tourism market and studies its past, present and future scenario. It discusses the factors making India the potential tourism destination and evaluates the market’s various parameters such as inbound tourism, outbound tourism, expenditure by inbound tourists, hotel industry and medical industry.

The report also provides forecast on various segments of the tourism industry such as international tourist arrivals, international tourist arrivals by region, and expenditure by international and outbound tourists.


 

MrSwing Lite - Swing Trade Picks

By Larry Swing

Some Potential Swing Trading Opportunities for today...

These stocks will be monitored by you every day!!! Follow the master plan and you will be on your way to learn to trade stocks like a PRO... enjoy...

SECRETS TO GREAT RESULTS:
CONFIDENCE -
PATIENCE - FOCUS - DISCIPLINE

Long Swings:
bullish

SWINGS
^ click here
0

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND FORCE3<= 0 AND FORCE13>=0 AND ADX10>30 AND HIGH < HIGH1 and HIGH1 < HIGH2 AND CLOSE > SMAC10 and CLOSE > SMAC20

WINDOW
^ click here
MAC,MACERICH CO
ZXZZT,NASDAQ TEST STOCK

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 > MDI10 AND HIGH < SMAC5
1-2-3-4
^ click here
0

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)>( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW< LOW1 and LOW1< LOW2 AND HIGH< HIGH1 and HIGH1< HIGH2
CROSS
^ click here
DOX,AMDOCS LIMITED
TMX,TELEFONOS DE MEXICO S A D
NPBC,NATIONAL PA BANCSHARES IN

MAV20 >= 500000 AND CLOSE >12 AND SMAC5 > SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC5 AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND HIGH<HIGH1 AND CLOSE > OPEN
REVIVAL
^ click here
0
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND (CLOSE1 - LOW1) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) >= 0.95* ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE > SMAC15 AND CLOSE > SMAC50
REVERSE
^ click here
0
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH2 > HIGH1 AND HIGH1 > HIGH AND LOW2 > LOW1 AND LOW1 > LOW AND CLOSE2 <= OPEN2 AND CLOSE1 <= OPEN1 AND CLOSE >= OPEN AND VOLUME>1.5* MAV20
TRIANGLE
^ click here
0
MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND CLOSE> SMAC20 AND HIGH2 > HIGH1 AND HIGH2 > HIGH AND LOW2 < LOW1 AND LOW2 < LOW AND HIGH1 > HIGH AND LOW1 < LOW
BREAKOUTS
^ click here
0
MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND HIGH>=MAX40 and HIGH1 <> MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>1.5 * MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) >=0.75*( HIGH - LOW )
REVERSALS
^ click here

0
MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>12 AND LOW <= MIN40_1 AND VOLUME>2* MAV20 AND CLOSE > OPEN

REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...


Short Swings:
bearish

what
is
short
selling?

        
SWINGS
^ click here
CSCO,CISCO SYSTEMS INC
GE,GENERAL ELECTRIC CO
WAG,WALGREEN CO
A,AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC
BIG,BIG LOTS INC OHIO

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND FORCE3>=0 AND FORCE13<=0 AND ADX10>30 AND LOW >LOW1 and LOW1 > LOW2 AND CLOSE < SMAC10 and CLOSE < SMAC20
WINDOW
^ click here
PLCM,POLYCOM INC
FE,FIRSTENERGY CORP
ISRG,INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
COGT,COGENT INC
AM,AMERICAN GREETINGS CORP

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>7 AND ADX10 > 30 AND PDI10 < MDI10 AND LOW > SMAC5

1-2-3-4
^ click here
AXP,AMERICAN EXPRESS CO
PLCM,POLYCOM INC
MSCC,MICROSEMI CORP
FE,FIRSTENERGY CORP
ISRG,INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND ( ADX10+ ADX20)/2 > 30 AND ( PDI10+ PDI20)<( MDI10+ MDI20) AND LOW> LOW1 and LOW1> LOW2 AND HIGH> HIGH1 and HIGH1> HIGH2

CROSS
^ click here
BRCM,BROADCOM CORPORATION
LLTC,LINEAR TECH CORP
LRCX,LAM RESEARCH CORP
TV,GRUPO TELEVISA S A
ETH,ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND SMAC5< SMAC15 AND CLOSE> SMAC5 AND CLOSE < SMAC15 and LOW > LOW1 and CLOSE < OPEN

REVIVAL
^ click here
ZVZZT,NASDAQ TEST STOCK
XEL,XCEL ENERGY INCORPORATED
HSY,HERSHEY COMPANY (THE)

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND( CLOSE1 - LOW1) >= 0.9 * ( HIGH1- LOW1) AND ( CLOSE - LOW) <= 0.1 * ( HIGH- LOW) AND CLOSE< SMAC15 AND CLOSE < SMAC50
REVERSE
^ click here
SCG,SCANA CORP NEW
VLY,VALLEY NATL BANCORP

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH2 < HIGH1 AND HIGH1 < HIGH AND LOW2 < LOW1 AND LOW1 < LOW AND CLOSE2 >= OPEN2 AND CLOSE1 >= OPEN1 AND CLOSE <= OPEN AND VOLUME>1.5* MAV20
TRIANGLE
^ click here
ETH,ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC

MAV20 >=500000 AND CLOSE>12 AND CLOSE < SMAC20 AND HIGH2 > HIGH1 AND HIGH2 > HIGH AND LOW2 < LOW1 AND LOW2 < LOW AND HIGH1 > HIGH AND LOW1 < LOW
BREAKDOWNS
^ click here
0

MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>7 AND LOW<=MIN40 AND LOW1<> MIN40_1 and VOLUME>2*MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN AND VOLUME1 < MAV20 and ( ( CLOSE - LOW ) ) <=0.25*( HIGH - LOW)
REVERSALS
^ click here
SCG,SCANA CORP NEW
PSD,PUGET ENERGY INC (HLDG CO
VLY,VALLEY NATL BANCORP
AMSF,AMERISAFE INC
AMSF,AMERISAFE INC

MAV20 >=200000 AND CLOSE>12 AND HIGH >= MAX40_1 AND VOLUME>2* MAV20 AND CLOSE < OPEN

REVIVAL (Track1) + REVERSE (Track2) + TRIANGLE (Track3) are different scans developed by MrSwing.
Try for yourself to find the LIST that fits you the BEST...
Tracks, Breakouts & Reversals are e explained in our new section called: SWINGLAB...


 

2008 Final Index Performance Numbers

By Corey Rosenbloom

Courtesy BarChart.com, here are the year-to-date performances of a broad assortment of major market Indexes, including the US Equities, CRB Commodity Index, and Dollar Index.

You can view the chart yourself at BarCharts.com or use your own program to display other index and stock returns for 2008.  Just be sensitive to seeing lots of red and don’t be disappointed by lots of minus signs.

Let 2008 be a reminder that bad things can happen to investors and traders, and that it’s not always safe to “Buy and Hold” or that “Diversification Always Works.”

Yes, the market will rebound from these levels - eventually - but it may take years to get back to the equity peaks of 2007.  In addition, those who diversified in 2008 - hoping to mitigate risk - experienced the phenomenon that in a down-market, almost all correlations go to 1.0.

Real Estate? Down depending on location location location.
US Equities? Down 40%
Foreign Equities? Most Down over 40%
Oil? Down 60% for the year ($WTIC)
Gold? Up about 2% for the year ($GOLD)
TLT Bond Fund:  Up 30% (I had to find something up)

In fact bond/note prices did well as some yields fell to record lows this year.

Take this weekend if not sooner to reflect on the lessons of 2008 and how you can identify problems, create solutions, and set goals to achieve and a plan of action to achieve them in 2009.

 


 

Nice Trend Day Up - Good Way to End 2008

By Corey Rosenbloom

2008 is finally behind us and the year ended on a positive note - a nice, solid trend day to the upside.  Let’s look at the DIA intraday structure to reflect on this pleasant picture.

DIA 5-min chart Dec 31, 2008:

This is what a trend day should be - except for the close, that is.

We had a nice run from the start the resulted in a “Three Push” reversal pattern that resulted only in a retracement to the rising 50 period EMA.  Until that point, any pullback was a safe buy-zone, while the 50 remained the “last line of defense” for the bulls and also served as a support buy-zone.

Price bounced sharply off the second test of the rising 50 EMA to tap new intraday highs before forming more choppy retracements back to the rising 20 EMA into additional new price highs around 3:30.

The only thing that tarnished today’s trend day move was the last 30 minutes of trading, where price formed a bearish shooting star at the upper Bollinger Band on a negative momentum divergence which preceded price reversing sharply end the day just beneath the 50 EMA.  Day traders should exit at or just prior to the close each day.

A few readers have commented on the appearance of negative momentum divergences on Trend Days and my resonse is generally to throw all forms of indicators (except moving averages) off the charts on expected trend days because they will (virtually) all give false signals.  Oscillators (Stochastic and RSI) will remain overbought all day and other indicators will be skewed as well, flashing sell signals as price continues to eek its way higher.

Look at the 3/10 Oscillator for an example.  As price continued its journey making newer highs all day, the momentum oscillator disconfirmed all highs as the day progressed.  There’s no point in trying to interpret it - sometimes it’s just best to turn off the indicators and focus your analysis strictly on one question?

“Is Price above or testing the 20 (and/or 50) period EMA?”

If we’re above it and the averages are in the most bullish orientation, then buy all pullbacks.

If we slip below it and close beneath it, take your stops and realize the trend day has ended.

Don’t try to get fancy - keep it as simple as possible.  Traders can stand to make the bulk of their monthly profits on trend days.

Continue to find additional insights in today’s price data and, even though today marks the end of 2008, the trading still continues each day.

Have a great time tonight!


 

The Best of 2008: A year not to be forgotten

By John Forman

It’s the end of 2008 and many traders are saying “Good ridance!” To them I say be careful what you ask for, because you just might get it. It wasn’t all that long ago that traders were complaining about the lack of volatility in the markets. Now, of course, the complaint is about too much. Funny how the pendulum swings like that, eh?

Personally, I found 2008 fascinating. I am a professional market analyst, and so was quite happy with all the fun stuff to write about in the last year. :-)

Of course the impact of the markets’ ups and downs was pretty clearly seen in the number of visitors to this blog and the volume of questions I’ve received throughout the year. There has been more than 74,000 visits from 54,000 unique visitors viewing 140,000 pages in the last 12 months. Each one of those metrics is up over 100% from 2007.

By far the most popular of my posts in 2008 was The Secret to Trading Success, which I wrote in April, and it wasn’t just a quick burst after publishing. That post has been popular throughout the year, and looks likely to continue to be so into the new year.

Here are the rest of the 10 most popular posts for 2008, based on page views, comments, and stuff like that:

  • What is Your Trading R?
  • Understanding Open Interest in Futures and Options Trading
  • Crude Oil Prices and the Economic Stimulus Package
  • Trading forum discussion - let’s keep it civil
  • Those Who Can’t Trade Teach
  • Calculating Relative Strength
  • Divergence Trading Defined
  • My Top 5 Trading Books
  • The Great Manic Depressive: The Markets
  • The last one on the list was actually a guest post by Billy Williams. I’m hoping to have much more of that in the year to come. After all, I’m not an expert on everything, and it’s always useful to have additional perspectives brought in to the discussion (contact me if you would like to be a guest poster).

    I’m personally really looking forward to the new year, and it has nothing to do with a new president coming in, or a turn in the economy, or anything like that (though all that stuff will certainly be interesting as well). I’m just eager to keep growing this site by posting content traders find useful and interesting, and to expand my other educational efforts, especially more live stuff.

    I do hope that you have made the most of 2008 and are looking forward to 2009 as well. Best wishes heading into the new year. :-)


     

    Last Day of Year Based on YTD Performance

    By Rob Hanna
    Below is a table that shows performance on the last day of the year if the year-to-date performance leading up to that point is below X%.



    It appears there has been a bit of a tendency for bad years to finish on a good note.

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