Free Swing Trading and Day Trading Picks & Education

Overnight Global News

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are up +3.90 points. The US stock market yesterday rallied sharply early but failed to maintain its gains and finished mixed (Dow -0.22%, S&P 500 -0.10%, Nasdaq Composite +0.31%). The S&P 500 Index posted a 3-1/2 month high before closing lower.
• Bearish factors for stock prices yesterday included (1) the bankruptcy filing by Chrysler after the third-biggest US automaker failed to restructure debts will all of its creditors, (2) the weaker-than-expected US Mar personal income and spending reports, (3) the rise in US weekly continuing unemployment claims to a record high for the thirteenth consecutive week, (4) weakness in energy producers which were dragged lower as Exxon fell -2.6% after posting its biggest profit drop since 2002, and (5) the jump in the 10-year T-note yield to a 5-month high of 3.16%.
• Bullish factors for stock prices yesterday included (1) the larger-than-expected rise in the Apr Chicago purchasing managers' index to a 7-month high, (2) speculation that the FDIC may offer investors financing to buy distressed US bank assets without requiring them to share an equity stake with the Treasury, (3) the prediction from Fidelity International that low valuations indicate stock advances that began in March are the start of a bull market and that financial shares are poised to drive recent gains higher, and (4) a rally in solar stocks led by First Solar which surged 23% after reporting its Q1 profit more than tripled as production costs fell and utilities increased demand for renewable energy.

Today's U.S. Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -3.5 ticks. June T-note prices yesterday declined for the third consecutive day and closed down -6 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 5-month high of 3.16%. Bearish factors for T-note prices yesterday included (1) the unexpected fall in US weekly unemployment claims (-14,000 to 631,000 versus expectations of unchanged at 640,000), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Apr Chicago purchasing managers' index (+8.7 to a 7-month high of 40.1 versus expectations of +3.6 to 35.0), (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as interbank lending markets improved with the TED spread (Eurodollar rates minus T-bills) narrowing to a 10-1/2 month low of 89 bp, and (4) continued disappointment that the Fed didn't expand its program of purchasing Treasuries and mortgage securities after Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected climb in US weekly continuing unemployment claims to a record for the thirteenth consecutive week (+133,000 to 6.271 million versus expectations of +63,000 to 6.200 million), (2) the smaller-than-expected gain in the Q1 employment cost index which rose by the smallest amount since the data series began in Q4 1996 (+0.3% versus expectations of +0.5%), and (3) the larger-than-expected declines in US Mar personal income and spending (income -0.3% versus expectatons of -0.2% and spending -0.2% versus expectations of -0.1%).
• The dollar index is weaker this morning with the dollar/yen +0.68 yen and the euro/dollar +0.61 cents. The jump in the Mar Japanese unemployment rate to a four-year high of 4.8% is undercutting the yen which fell to a 2-week low against the dollar today. The dollar index yesterday overcame a 3-week low and closed higher. Bullish factors for the dollar yesterday included (1) the drop in the yen to a 1-week low against the dollar as the surge in global equity markets encouraged the yen carry trade, (2) the smallest gain in the US Q1 employment cost index since the series began in 1996, and (3) the greater-than-expected increase in the Mar Euro-Zone unemployment rate which rose +0.2 to a 3-1/2 year high of 8.9% and put more pressure on the ECB to cut rates or initiate a quantitative easing at its policy meeting next week. Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) reduced demand for the safety of the dollar as the upward momentum in the stock market continued, and (2) comments from ECB Council member Ewald Nowotny that he sees "green shoots" in the Euro-Zone economy and doesn't expect any major negative effects from the swine flu outbreak.
• June crude oil prices this morning are down -6 cents a barrel and June gasoline is -0.85 cent a gallon. June crude oil prices yesterday gyrated on both sides of unchanged and finally closed up +$0.15 a barrel. June gasoline closed up +1.95 cents a gallon. Bullish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included (1) the surge in the S&P 500 Index to a 3-1/2 month high on optimism the worst of the recession may be over, which may increase energy demand, and (2) the prediction from tanker tracker Oil Movements that OPEC will cut crude oil shipments by -0.9% in the four weeks ending May 16, reflecting seasonal weakening of crude oil demand as well as falling production. Bearish factors for crude oil prices yesterday included (1) the stronger dollar, (2) the prediction from oil analyst Stephen Schork that crude oil prices may stay below $55 a barrel this year and trade in a $45-$55 a barrel range as "the world is swimming in oil and the global recession persists," and (3) fears that global energy demand will drop if the World Health Organization declares the swine-flu outbreak a pandemic

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases for companies with market caps above $5.0 bln listed by mkt cap) CVX-Chevron (BEST earnings consensus $0.81 per share), MA-Mastercard ($2.61), AGN-Allergan ($0.54), SPG-Simon Property Group ($0.25), AOC-Aon Corp. ($0.88), PPL-PPL Corp. ($0.47), ED-Consolidated Edison ($0.85), RSG-Republic Services ($0.30), CLX-Clorox ($0.92), FO-Fortune Brands ($0.28)

Global Financial Calendar